Sirija

[Prospero]

izvestaj (u celosti) inspekcije un o uptrebi sarina 21. avgusta u delovima damaska:https://docs.google....pdf&chrome=true

Preleteo sam na brzaka, ovo je valjda summa:

Conclusions27. On the basis of the evidence obtained during our investigation of the Ghouta incident,the conclusion is that, on 21 August 2013, chemical weapons have been used in the ongoingconflict between the parties in the Syrian Arab Republic, also against civilians, includingchildren, on a relatively large scale.28. In particular, the environmental, chemical and medical samples we have collectedprovide clear and convincing evidence that surface-to-surface rockets containing the nerveagent Sarin were used in Ein Tarma, Moadamiyah and Zamalka in the Ghouta area ofDamascus.29. The facts supporting this conclusion are:• Impacted and exploded surface-to-surface rockets, capable to carry a chemicalpayload, were found to contain Sarin.• Close to the rocket impact sites, in the area where patients were affected, theenvironment was found to be contaminated by Sarin.• Over fifty interviews given by survivors and health care workers provided amplecorroboration of the medical and scientific results.• A number of patients/survivors were clearly diagnosed as intoxicated by anorganophosphorous compound.• Blood and urine samples from the same patients were found positive for Sarin andSarin signatures.30. This result leaves us with the deepest concern.

plus ovo:

Observations and assessments from Moadamiyah findings:...Тhe ordnance identified bad the following cbaracteristics:Color: light gray paintingMarkings:1. Black numbers on the outside: 97-1792. Engravings on the bottom ring of the engine: Г И Ш 4 25 - 67 - 179 KDimensions:Length - 630 mmWidth - 140 mmThe engine had 10jet nozzles ordered in a circle at the end of the rocket with a metalelectrical contact plate in the middle.

Observations and assessments from the Zamalka/Ein Tarma findings:...The rocket engine:Six stabilizer fins are equally arranged in a circle and stabilized with a metal ring.One rocket had a red number 153 sprayed in the middle of the engine tube.The engine tube is attached to the warhead with 12 bolts.• Total length of the engine: -134 cm (exit nozzle not included)• Length of rocket motor fins: -16.5 cm• Width of stabilizing ring: -5.5 cm• Length of motor exit nozzle: -4.5 cm• Length of motor engine shaft: -112 cm• " of engine shaft: -12 cm• " of stabilizer ring: -31 cm

Considerations on the likely trajectory of the rocketsOf the five impact sites investigated by the mission, three do not present physicalcharacteristics allowing a successful study of the trajectories followed by the rocketsinvolved, due to the configuration of the impact places. However, Impact site number 1(Moadamiyah) and Impact site number 4 (Ein Tarma) provide sufficient evidence todetermine, with a sufficient degree of accuracy, the likely trajectory of the projectiles.Impact Site Number 1The munition linked to this impact site, by observed and measured characteristics,indicatively matches one of the variants of the M 14 artillery rocket, with either an original oran improvised warhead (not observed at the impact site). In the final stage of this trajectory,the projectile hit and pierced through a vegetal screen existing over one of the adjacent walls,before impacting the ground producing a shallow crater.The line linking the crater and the piercing in the vegetal screen can be conclusivelyestablished and has a bearing of 35 degrees. This line represents an inverse azimuth to theoriginal trajectory of the rocket, that is to say, the original trajectory of the projectile, as it hitthe ground, had an azimuth of 215 degrees.Impact Site Number 2 is located 65 meters away from number 1 and with an azimuth of 214degrees. Both relative positions are fully congruent with the dispersion pattern commonlyassociated with rockets launched from a single, multi-barrel, launcher.Impact Site Number 4The munition related to this impact site by observed and measured characteristics indicativelymatches a 330 mm caliber, artillery rocket. The projectile, in the last stage of its trajectory, hitthe surface in an area of earthy, relatively soft, ground where the shaft/engine of the projectileremained dug in, undisturbed until investigated.The said shaft/engine, presenting no form of lateral bending, pointed precisely in a bearing of285 degrees that, again, represent a reverse azimuth to the trajectory followed by the rocketduring its flight. It can be, thus, concluded that the original azimuth of the rocket trajectoryhad an azimuth of 105 degrees, in an East/Southeast trajectory.

Dakle, jedna raketa je doletela sa azimuta 215 u odnosu na mesto udara, a druga sa azimuta 105.Da vratim mapu od pre par strana:što bi predstavljalo negde okvirno Kasjun brdo (za Ain Tarmu) i predeo između aerodroma Mazeh i centra Damaska (za Moadamiju) kao mesta odakle su ispaljene ove granate. Međutim, kako se po tim azimutima presecaju linije "fronta" (ako do sada nisu osetno promenjene u odnosu na stanje na ovoj mapi) skeptičan sam da je ovo baš smoking gun koji se neće moći uporno pobijati i gurati u stranu.

[Prospero]

Pazi kako se Vlad nije zajebo pa reko da je mislio da parlamenti na Zapadu glasaju ko Gosudarstvenaja Duma.

Can't teach old dog new tricks

[Dagmar]

Malo lokalnijeg osvrta na Siriju, izvinjavam se ako je bilo:U članku pretencioznog naslova Sirijci preplavili ValjevoO tome kako država nije u stanju ili nema volje da smesti nekih 50-100 ljudi, koji treba da po ovom vremenu spavaju na otvorenom i gladuju. Realno, teraju ih na kriminal da bi obezbedili novac ili hranu.

[Prospero]

Uzdržaću se od komentara o tradicionalnom srpskom gostoprimstvu i primetiću da je kasarna "Kadinjača" u Valjevu manje-više prazna, tu svakako ima mesta da se smesti par desetina pa i par stotina ljudi ako je hitno.

[Muwan]

To zahteva aktivaciju par moždanih ćelija, i još gore, odredjen nivo proaktivnosti u krugu ljudi koji se nalaze u lokalnoj vlasti, vojsci, nadležnoj republičkoj službi.... Na žalost, jedina moždana ćelija koja kod svih njih u paketu © funkcionoše se zove: "Gde sam tu ja?". Čak i kada znaju koliki je njihov deo, opet nisu sposobni da bilo šta urade nego čekaju da im neki Vučić pošalje instrukcije.

[Bane5]

što bi predstavljalo negde okvirno Kasjun brdo (za Ain Tarmu) i predeo između aerodroma Mazeh i centra Damaska (za Moadamiju) kao mesta odakle su ispaljene ove granate. Međutim, kako se po tim azimutima presecaju linije "fronta" (ako do sada nisu osetno promenjene u odnosu na stanje na ovoj mapi) skeptičan sam da je ovo baš smoking gun koji se neće moći uporno pobijati i gurati u stranu.

kasjun je 100% pod kontrolom asadovih snaga, cak stavise, vrlo je bitna strategijska tacka jer ima visinu i na njoj se vec nalaze artiljerijske pozicije kljucnih jedinica koje 'cuvaju' rezim.ps. mislim da se jedan od izraelskih napada odnosio na neku tacku na ovoj lokaciji. Edited September 17, 2013 by Bane5

[Prospero]

Ma znam za Kasjun, mislio sam na ovaj žuto-obojeni predeo na potezu centar Damaska - Hamiš. No, zavero-teoretišem, realno nemam posebnih sumnji da su Asadove snage, sa ili bez odobrenja vrha, izvršile napad.Mislim da si u pravu za izraelski napad na jednu od lokacija na Kasjunu, tu im je i vojno-naučni centar ali i skladište "skupljih" raketa, poput onih obala-brod koje im je Izrael pogodio.

[Cane Vukic Prebranac]

[Prospero]

Kao što rekoh, rasprava o poreklu raketa i napada se nastavlja:

ft.com > World >EuropeLast updated: September 17, 2013 3:03 pmSyria crisis: Lavrov urges wider probe into chemical weaponsBy Charles Clover in MoscowRussia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, on Tuesday called for a wider investigation into a chemical weapons attack in the suburbs of Damascus on August 21, saying that it could have been a “provocation” staged by rebels.The comments, made during a joint press conference in Moscow with Laurent Fabius, France’s foreign minister, was Russia’s first detailed response to the release on Monday of a report by UN inspectors on the attack, which determined that sarin gas had been responsible for the deaths of hundreds of civilians, including children, in Syria.Mr Lavrov and Mr Fabius offered completely diverging views, with Mr Fabius saying the report amounted to proof of the Syrian regime’s culpability in the attack, while Mr Lavrov said it only proved chemical weapons had been used.While the report does not assign blame, analysts have interpreted various details , such as probable flight trajectories and types of munitions used, to strengthen the accusation that the attack was the work of the Syrian army and not the opposition.Mr Lavrov, however, reiterated Moscow’s longstanding position, blaming the rebels, as he cautioned against drawing too many conclusions from the report.“We want the events of August 21 to be investigated dispassionately, objectively and professionally. We have a serious basis on which to suggest that this was a provocation,” he said.“The truth must be found, and it will be the litmus test for the future work of the Security Council,” he added. Each episode of alleged chemical weapons use must be examined “thoroughly, impartially and objectively” and this “final picture” should be reported to the Security Council, he said.In the report, he said, “there is no answer to the question of where the munitions were manufactured. There are no answers to other questions.”Mr Fabius, however, challenged his interpretation. “When you look at the amount of sarin gas used, the vectors, the techniques behind such an attack, as well as other aspects, it seems to leave no doubt that the regime is behind it,” he said.Since the attack on Ghouta last month, Russia has held fast to the theory that it was staged by the rebels in a bid to win sympathy and military intervention by the west, pointing out that it made no sense for the regime to use chemical weapons because the tide of the conflict turned in their favour earlier this year.However, the UN report included azimuth data – which measures flight trajectories – for the munitions recovered, which allows analysts to plot the site of the launch.. This tended to support accusations that the attack was the work of regime forces. Human Rights Watch said the azimuth data showed the missiles were likely to have originated from a Syrian military complex."Since the attack on Ghouta last month, Russia has held fast to the theory that the attack was staged by the rebels in a bid to win sympathy and military intervention by the west"Further evidence against the Syrian regime was provided by Human Rights Watch, which published a report on the attack earlier this month. The bombardment of Ghouta consisted of more than a dozen 140mm rockets and 330mm rockets. HRW said that there had been no reported use of either form of rocket by rebel groups.However, Russian experts question this evidence. Some have examined Cyrillic markings on the shells, photographed by UN inspectors and detailed in the report, and come to the opposite conclusion – that the rockets were “antiques” and “homemade” munitions, which it was entirely within the capability of the rebels to manufacture.The index number on the casing of one of the 140mm rockets photographed in the report reads 4-25 – 67-179 K, which translates into the batch number, year produced and the factory number, according to Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow.He said this missile was thus the 25th missile of the fourth batch, produced in 1967, by Factory 179. Today Factory 179 is known as Sibselmash, is located in Novosibirsk and produces mainly agricultural machinery. Sibselmash filed for bankruptcy last year, and most workers have been let go, according to a spokeswoman reached by telephone on Tuesday.Mr Pukhov said he was surprised that a rocket produced in 1967 would still be in use and said it would have “long ago passed its storage limit and been retired”. He added that it was strange that the Syrian army would use “an antique” when they had BM-21 Grad rockets, which were more accurate.As for the larger 330mm shells, which HRW said were likely to have been produced in Syria and were designed to be used with an Iranian produced 333mm rocket launcher, Michael Barabanov head of Moscow Defense Brief, described these as like a “matchlock rifle” and “not a commercial but a purely artisanal product”.“I am 99 per cent sure this would be rebel made,” he said.However, Douglas Barrie, an expert at IISS, the London based international affairs think tank, said that the BM-14 140mm rocket system could still be in the Syrian arsenal, as long as the propellant had been replaced, and it was quite plausible that the BM-14 rather than the more advanced BM-21 could be the dedicated chemical weapon delivery round.As for the 330mm rockets, he said: “While the 330mm rocket does not appear to be as sophisticated as most modern military equipment, it still looks too polished for the manufacturing capabilities the rebels are known to possess.“Of course the rebels don’t have to have built the rocket themselves in order to have used it, but so far there is no evidence for this side of the argument.”Dan Kaszeta, a defence consultant and former US Army chemical officer, said it would not be surprising to see decades-old equipment used by most militaries. “Armies never throw anything away,” he said. “And the Soviets built military ordnance with the premise that it would stay around for a very long time.

[Budja]

Naravno da ce se nastaviti jer niko ne moze da odustane od prethodnih tvrdnji zbog "kredibiliteta", no cini mi se da je sada vise u pitanju patkometrija nego nesto sto ce uticati na situaciju na terenu.Drugim recima, nalazi UN nece sluziti za huskanje javnog mnjenja buduci da je dogovor postignut.

[Prospero]

Tačno, ovo je sada skoro pa akademska rasprava.

[Indy]

kasjun je 100% pod kontrolom asadovih snaga, cak stavise, vrlo je bitna strategijska tacka jer ima visinu i na njoj se vec nalaze artiljerijske pozicije kljucnih jedinica koje 'cuvaju' rezim.

A ti si u Damasku?

[Bane5]

ne nisam u damasku vec je iz izvestaja obe strane (sa naglaskom na OBE!) jasno da je ovaj planinski deo potpuno pod kontrolom asadovih snaga i da pobunjenici nijednom nisu ni pokusali da ga preuzmu jer je bukvalno prepun vojnim snagama suprotne strane.

Edited September 17, 2013 by Bane5

[Prospero]

Dobro sad, Kasjun je brdo severozapadno od centra Damaska i praktično ne služi ničemu drugome osim kao vojna baza - kasarne kvalitetnijih jedinica, skladišta, ratne rezerve, komandna mesta i vojno-naučni centri.

[Bane5]

pa upravo to i pricam, ali ce neko uvek da uleti sa 'inetligentnim' pitanjem 'jesi li ti u damasku i sl'.