Sirija

[Prospero]

Lolz
 

CNN Türk ENG‏@CNNTURK_ENG
#BREAKING Turkish MFA summons US ambassador John Bass over US spox Kirby's comments on #PYD.

 

[vememah]

Kirbi je inače rekao da SAD ne vidi PYD kao terorističku organizaciju.

 

Režimski dnevnik odmah reaguje:

Kick the coalition out of İncirlik

Turkey should kick the coalition, which is yet to take any steps to end the Syrian civil war, out of İncirlik Air Base and use the facility as a shelter for refugees headed toward Turkish borders
http://www.dailysabah.com/columns/yahya_bostan/2016/02/09/kick-the-coalition-out-of-incirlik

Edited February 9, 2016 by vememah

[Muwan]

 

Definitivno nikada ne treba potceniti sposobnost Bratstva da ispale poduži rafal u sopstvene noge.

[vememah]

Turcima izgleda bilo malo što su gurnuli prst u oko Amerima, pa nastavljaju i s Rusima u istom danu:

 

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has warned Russia over the possible consequences of its moves in neighboring Syria, suggesting they might be about to become mired in the country as the Soviet Union did in Afghanistan in 1979.

 

“Do not worry at all, the tyrants who turned Syria, my precious Aleppo and Bayırbucak into a lake of blood will one day definitely pay the price for what they have done,” Davutoğlu said on Feb. 9. “Nobody should forget how the Soviet forces, which were a mighty, super force during the Cold War and entered into Afghanistan, left Afghanistan in a servile situation. Those who have entered Syria today will also leave Syria in a servile way,” Davutoğlu said.

 

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-pm-warns-russia-by-recalling-soviet-invasion-of-afghanistan.aspx?pageID=238&nID=94947&NewsCatID=338

 

In the meanwhile:

TUI Group, the world’s largest tour operator, reported a 40 percent drop in bookings to Turkey this summer due to safety concerns

 

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tui-looks-to-new-holiday-destinations-as-turkey-bookings-slump.aspx?pageID=238&nID=94940&NewsCatID=349

 

Edited February 9, 2016 by vememah

[Lord Protector]

 

 

Edited February 9, 2016 by slow

[Lord Protector]

 

"Odbranićemo Alepo" – Turska sprema invaziju?

Ankara -- Turski premijer Ahmet Davutoglu rekao je da će Ankara da plati svoj istorijski dug “braći iz Alepa“ koji su pomogli odbranu Turske početkom 20. veka.

 

kakav kreten

Edited February 10, 2016 by slow

[Muwan]

To je malo više za unutrašnju upotrebu, pošto je politika Turske spram sirije nakon četiri godine mučenja najzad doživela gori brodolom nego srpska politika četiri stuba. Sad valja pronaći krivca.

[Friend]

Iako verovatno(?) nece uleteti u Siriju, ipak im sede solidni ludaci u politickom vrhu.

[vathra]

Напредовање владиних снага у Латакији од октобра.

 

 

 

Иначе овом ратишту поклањају посебну пажњу, пошто је једино на ком константно напредују већ месецима.

Edited February 10, 2016 by vathra

[Muwan]

Rusi verovatno hoće duboku sigurnu zonu ispred jedinog aerodroma koji imaju na raspolaganju, tako da tu neće biti nikakvih improvizacija.

[Prospero]

YPG/SDF su zauzeli aerodrom Menah sa okolinom, kako se čini mirno (posle ruskog bombardovanja doduše) i uz dil sa lokalcima da se predaju i pređu na stranu SDF (tu je valjda grupa Džaiš al Tuvar).

Edited February 10, 2016 by Prospero

[Bane5]

YPG/SDF su zauzeli aerodrom Menah sa okolinom, kako se čini mirno (posle ruskog bombardovanja doduše) i uz dil sa lokalcima da se predaju i pređu na stranu SDF (tu je valjda grupa Džaiš al Tuvar).

 

ako su zauzeli menah onda je to uradjeno verovatno bez borbe. prepustena im je baza.

rusko bombartdovanje je tu ionako svakodnevno.

[Prospero]

Syria’s future lies in its neighbours’ hands

Dmitri Trenin

 

In the Middle East, it is the regional players at the forefront, writes Dmitri Trenin

 

 

The Syrian army’s success at Aleppo was something Russia had been waiting for since the start of its military intervention last September. Russian air strikes were to soften up the diverse groups opposed to President Bashar al-Assad — Isis and others — and create conditions for Damascus to start a counter-offensive.

 

Until recently, however, there has been a disconnect between Russian activity in the air and the near-inability of Mr Assad’s forces to exploit it on the ground. Now this gap has been bridged. We should not expect a quick victory for Damascus, though Aleppo opposition groups may invite others into Syria: the Saudis and particularly the Turks. If this happens, the war will be transformed again. With the US, Russia and regional powers directly involved, Syria can become the first battleground in the global competition for power and influence that has restarted after a 25-year hiatus.

 

The consequences of such a development are hard to predict. But these are some of the questions that would surely arise. Would Turkey invade with ground troops to occupy the Kurdish-held areas? Would it bomb the Syrian army’s units? Would the Saudis attack just Isis targets or Iranian and Hizbollah formations, too? Would Iran send in more troops? What would the US military be doing? How would the Russians respond if their Syrian allies came under attack and sustained casualties? What would be the Russian reaction to the losses of their own at the hands of the Turks?

 

Would they open fire at the Turkish tanks and shoot down Turkish fighter jets with the S-400 air defence systems already in place after the incident in November in which a Russian aircraft was shot down by a Turkish F-16? Would Moscow arm the Kurds in Turkey? Would any of this push Nato to invoke Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which states that an attack on one ally is an attack on all allies? Should any of this happen, the entire global strategic environment would change.

 

Syria today has been occasionally compared to Spain in the 1930s. The analogy is growing sharper. But the bitter irony is that, at

the end of January in Geneva, a negotiating process began that was aimed at bringing peace to Syria after almost five years of the devastating conflict.

 

Blaming events in Aleppo for the breakdown of those talks misses the point. There was no ceasefire agreed beforehand. Had the rebels been able to score a significant success against Mr Assad, they would have probably pressed ahead, too. The real issue remains the unwillingness of regional actors — Damascus and Tehran, Ankara and Riyadh — to compromise.

 

The US and Russia have their own differences, some of which led to actual confrontation in important areas. Yet they have managed to co-operate so far over Syria, on the understanding that neither party will be able to have all it wants.

 

The world, however, has changed considerably since the cold war, when Moscow and Washington could decide for others and hold them accountable. In the Middle East, it is the regional actors that are at the forefront. They are calling the shots — literally. And they are yet to learn the fine art of co-operation alongside confrontation.

 

The Middle East has entered a period that will probably last a couple of decades, in which there will be little peace and a lot of fighting. Outsiders will have a limited role there, and often only a limited understanding of what is going on. Their prime responsibility is to work for solutions, however imperfect, that would save lives and create the conditions for post-conflict coexistence.

 

Should they give up these efforts and take sides in the conflict, Syria could very easily become another Spain — a warning that went unheeded and led to a much bigger calamity.

 

[Muwan]

Turska bi u teoriji mogla da se dogovori sa Rusijom da utrči na kurdske teritorije u Siriji i ograniči se na njih. S tim da je ova teorija svedena na mikroteoriju nakon genijalnog obaranja Su-24 a čak i kada bi se nekim čudom ostvarila, i kada bi Asad pristao da ne gađa turske avione koji bi pružali vazdušnu podršku toj akciji, Turskoj bi opet ostala glavobolja u smislu šta raditi sa tom teritorijom čak i da je osvoje. Vojska bi im se našla u stranoj zemlji, sa potpuno neprijateljski raspoloženim lokalcima. Da bi kontrolisali obe strane granice morali bi da podignu jedno pola miliona vojnika a žrtve bi bile ogromne. Ne treba biti Von Clausewitz pa zaključiti da to nije baš najmudriji izbor.

 

Varijanta u kojoj utrčavaju u Siriju bez dogovora sa Rusima... well... vama u Srbiji će trebati dobre zalihe kukuruza kokičara a ja ću isto u supermarket ali po vodu, konzerve i instant supe.

 

Saudijski upad u Siriju... tu već ne postoji dovoljno slikovit ROFL smajli. Ti carevi su ničim izazvani pokazali celom svetu da su najskuplji raspad od vojske koji postoji. Zahvaljujući njihovoj fantastičnoj pokaznoj vežbi u Jemenu svako kome njihovo regionalno budalisanje ide na živce sada razmišlja u fazonu: "Vala, ako su ih oni bosonogi Huti istamburali onda možemo i mi".

[Prospero]

Turskoj je jedina opcija legitimnog™ upada da uleti prema Al Babu, dakle delu kod granice koji drži ISIS i to predstavi kao deo koalicione borbe protiv ISISa, da to potom proglasi zonom ne znam čega već i ostane tu do daljeg tj do mirovnog procesa kako bi sprečila eventualno spajanje teritorija koje drže Kurdi i njihovu legitimizaciju kroz recimo autonomiju unutar Sirije.

 

Upad na kurdske teritorije će stvarno biti duck-and-cover trenutak za mnoge; Saudi - šta reći...