Sirija

[Muwan]

Da ne menja ništa ne bi je iskusno izostavio. A menja sve jer čini tvoj odgovor nepotrebnim. Ja sam već uneo opasku o praćkama.

[Lord Protector]

A kada su je imali? mislim na period nakon raspada SSSR.

 

Pa nisu ali je tek sad definitivno neće imati.

[namenski]

Замене за америчке авионе, понајвише F-35, нема шансе да оволико рмбаче. Парадоксално, морали би да ангажују више авиона за исти број налета.

То што Руси највише користе поуздане мазге, овде је свакако предност.

Koriste mazge, a ono pravo drze u pricuvi, za ne daj boze?

Dobro sam skapirao?

 

I nikako da pitam, evo sad se setih: odakle bre, iz kojih izvora toliki odijum na F-35?

[frn1782]

Sam je djeneral Bogdan pricao kako imaju probleme sa letovima kad pada kisha i grmi, problemi sa softverom i jos svasta nesto.

Sad, neki paranoicni Rusi misle da je to "psiholoshka taktika" da se superoruzje kamuflira kao fail.

[vathra]

Koriste mazge, a ono pravo drze u pricuvi, za ne daj boze?

Dobro sam skapirao?

 

I nikako da pitam, evo sad se setih: odakle bre, iz kojih izvora toliki odijum na F-35?

Nisi.

Zamena za starije suške je Su-34, i njega koriste u Siriji, ali u manjem broju. Poenta je da se oslanjaju na stariju i isprobanu tehnologiju.

 

Problem sa F-35 je što i da radi kako su zamislili (a i to je lipši magare), prosto radi posao lošije od A-10 koga treba da zameni. Pride i zbog komplikovanije tehnologije mu treba više vremena za održavanje. Ima još,toga, ali nije za ovu temu, niti za kucanje na telefonu.

[Lord Protector]

Jebeš shale industriju kad ovako niska cena nafte ubija najvećeg neprijatelja, tako da Vašington teško da išta ima zameriti Rijadu, dok se ovi itekako ljute zbog nuklearnog dila sa Iranom. Ali dobro je primećeno da je osnovni razlog uleta u Siriju - borba za naklonost Teherana. Iran je danas najpoželjnija udavača planete i za sad jedini dobitnik Arapskog proleća. A tamo neke 2007. odbrojavani su dani dok ih Buš mlađi ne pretvori u pepeo.

 

Njima su se nacionalizam, agresivnost i širenje uticaja u regiji itekako isplatili.

 

Teško da je Moskva uletela u Siriju zbog naklonosti Teherana. Svako je uleteo zbog sopstvenih interesa ali je situacija nametnula da se traži najmanji zajednički sadržalac. Rusi dugo nisu hteli da kvare odnose sa Zapadom po pitanju Irana i pažljivo su odmeravali svoje poteze da ne bi gurali prst u oko Americi i Izraelu. Godinama nisu hteli da isporuče S-300 Iranu, bili su deo mehanizma kontrole iranskog nuklearnog programa, ruska kooperativnost po pitanju sankcija je bila zadovoljavajuća i Rusi nisu izlazili iz okvira rezolucija UN.

Rusiji odgovara činjenica da Iran ne bude nuklearna sila i nisu se mnogo bunili zbog američkog pritiska na Teheran po tom pitanju. Ali joj sa druge strane odgovara snažan Teheran kao ravnoteža američko-saudijskom savezništvu. O ekonomskoj korisnosti trenutnog savezništva Moskve i Teherana ne treba ni govoriti, Moskva vodi vrlo unosan biznis sa Iranom, dobijaju ogromne poslove koje se mere milijardama dolara.

Ali postoji još jedna dimenzija koja je bitna za razlog zbližavanja Moskve i Teherana: antiglobalistički/nacionalistički stav i težnja da se ostane jak  igrač nasuprot nosiocima globalne dominacije. Suviše su veliki i značajni da bi se komandovalo njima iz drugog centra. Oni tu volju za soptvenim prostorom moći upravo sada zajednički demonstriraju...

Edited February 4, 2016 by slow

[Аврам Гојић]

čini se da je u Siriji u toku perfect storm.

[Gandalf]

Da ne menja ništa ne bi je iskusno izostavio. A menja sve jer čini tvoj odgovor nepotrebnim. Ja sam već uneo opasku o praćkama.

kako ti drago.

[Prospero]

 

 

 

Jea, znam da je po sredi #JihadiJulian™ ali mislim da ne bi trebalo sumnjati da je u toku poveće "pomeranje" civila u rejonu severno i severozapadno od Alepa.

[mackenzie]

Izgleda da Turci [trenutno] ne puštaju nikog.

 

https://www.facebook.com/Orient.Tv.Net/videos/1163002270385054

 

Meanwhile...

 

[bigvlada]

Nisi.

Zamena za starije suške je Su-34, i njega koriste u Siriji, ali u manjem broju. Poenta je da se oslanjaju na stariju i isprobanu tehnologiju.

 

Problem sa F-35 je što i da radi kako su zamislili (a i to je lipši magare), prosto radi posao lošije od A-10 koga treba da zameni. Pride i zbog komplikovanije tehnologije mu treba više vremena za održavanje. Ima još,toga, ali nije za ovu temu, niti za kucanje na telefonu.

 

Pa kada je neka mudra glava smislila da oklopljenog dvomotornog razbijača tenkova zameni jednomotornim  prikrivenim^tm avionom. To je u stilu onih studija gde su dokazivali koliko različitih tipova aviona i njihov učinak na terenu menja samo jedan F-117. Ili pravljenja lovca naoružanog samo raketama. 

 

Meanwhile, britanski ministar spoljnih poslova je prozreo ruski cunning plan. 

 

Britain accuses Russia of trying to carve out mini-state for Assad in Syria

 

 

War of words continues after Russia says British foreign secretary is spreading ‘dangerous disinformation’ about its role in the long-running civil war

 

Britain has said Russia could be trying to carve out an Alawite mini-state in Syria for its ally President Bashar al-Assad by bombing his opponents instead of fighting Islamic State militants.

 

Russia and Britain have been engaged in a war of words after British foreign secretary Philip Hammond said on Monday that he believed president Vladimir Putin was worsening the Syrian civil war by bombing opponents of Isis.

 

 

Russian airstrikes threaten Syria peace talks, opposition says

 

Hammond dismissed Russian criticism that he was spreading “dangerous disinformation”, saying there was a limit to how long Russia could pose as a promoter of the peace process while bombing Assad’s opponents, who the west hopes can shape Syria once the president is gone.

 

“Is Russia really committed to a peace process or is it using the peace process as a fig leaf to try to deliver some kind of military victory for Assad that creates an Alawite mini state in the north-west of Syria?” Hammond told reporters in Rome.

 

The comments indicate growing frustration in western capitals about Putin’s intervention, alongside Iran, in Syria but also give a frank insight into the western assessment of the Kremlin’s potential objectives for Syria.

 

When Russia began air strikes in September, Putin tipped the war in Assad’s favour, after major setbacks earlier in 2015 brought rebel groups close to the coastal heartland of his Alawite sect.

 

An oppressed minority for most of their history, Alawites suddenly cemented their control in Syria in 1970 when Assad’s father Hafez staged a coup that sidelined the Sunnis. He built a ferocious security apparatus based on fellow Alawite officers.

 

Alawites broke away from Shi’ism more than 1,000 years ago and retain some links to it, including the veneration of Ali, the cousin and son-in law of the Prophet Mohammad. Alawi literally means “those who adhere to the teachings of Ali”.

 

Russia says it targets a range of militants in Syria, not just Isis, although it insists it focuses on the militant Islamist group.

 

Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov criticised Hammond for questioning Russia’s military action in Syria, saying his statements could not be taken seriously.

 

“To make such accusations is not logical, it is not correct. It contradicts the essence of those efforts that Russia is making in Syria,” Peskov told reporters.

 

“Russia is making rather massive and consistent efforts to help the Syrians in their fight against international terrorism,” Peskov said.

 

When asked about the Russian criticism, Hammond retorted: “Sounds like I must be pretty much spot on.”

 

Hammond said Russia was strengthening Isis on the ground by propping up Assad and bombing his opponents and thus driving moderate Sunnis into the hands of militants.

 

“There has to be a limit to the amount of time that the Russians can sit at the negotiating table posing as sponsors of the political track while at the same time bombing the people who we believe have to be the future of Syria,” he said.

 

Asked if he thought Russia was guilty of war crimes in Syria, Hammond said: “On the face of it, and you have to investigate these things very carefully, there is indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas going on and, on the face of it, that would represent a breach of international humanitarian law.”

 

A United Nations envoy met Syrian government representatives on Tuesday to try to advance peace talks that have been rendered almost impossible by continued fighting in a conflict that has killed 250,000 people in the past five years and caused a refugee crisis in the region and Europe.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/03/britain-accuses-russia-of-trying-to-carve-out-mini-state-for-assad-in-syria

Edited February 5, 2016 by bigvlada

[Eraserhead]

Jenan Moussa okacila mapu koja objasnjava kuda prolazi ovaj talas izbeglica:

 

[Prospero]

Ban blames Russia for collapse of Syria talks

Sam Jones in London

 

Devastating Russian air raids in Syria last week caused the collapse of peace talks in Geneva, said UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon as he warned that an immediate ceasefire was needed if the fragile diplomatic process to end the civil war was to have any hope of proceeding.

 

“As soon as the [Geneva] meeting was convened, aerial bombing continued and the ground operation started in Aleppo,” Mr Ban said in an interview with the Financial Times in London. “It was extremely difficult for Staffan de Mistura [uN envoy for Syria] to continue at this time.”

 

Mr Ban’s comments, made as UN diplomats rush to salvage the peace process, come at a critical juncture for Syria’s rebels.

 

After five years of grinding warfare, a dramatic increase in Russian aerial firepower in recent weeks — dispatched by Moscow even as the Kremlin began to show signs of greater diplomatic willingness — has delivered a military breakthrough for president Bashar al-Assad’s forces. It has all but shattered what remains of Syria’s moderate opposition in the north-west of the country.

Aleppo is now encircled and many western diplomats fear Damascus, with Russian sanction, is attempting to punch all the way through rebel positions to the Turkish border. This would leave Mr Assad’s moderate opponents fatally undermined at the negotiating table — and force the West to accept the Syrian dictatorship as the only viable alternative to the rule of radical jihadis.

 

In carefully chosen words, Mr Ban warned that Russia and Syria were not being “faithful” in implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2254 adopted in December. The resolution, passed by unanimous vote, called for an end to indiscriminate bombing of civilians and measures to implement a nationwide ceasefire.

 

“It is one of the very few resolutions adopted by the security council during the past few years [on Syria] but it is a substantively important and comprehensive one,” said Mr Ban.

Since late last year, Russia had been showing greater co-operation on expediting a diplomatic solution to the crisis, the secretary-general acknowledged, but Moscow’s engagement was still “not enough”.

 

Western intelligence officials believe Russia has performed a quiet U-turn since December’s diplomatic démarche. After a failed attempt to persuade Mr Assad to step aside, the Kremlin has doubled down on its original military strategy to secure him in power, they said.

 

As soon as the [Geneva] meeting was convened, aerial bombing continued and the ground operation started in Aleppo. It was extremely difficult for Staffan de Mistura [uN envoy for Syria] to continue at this time.

 

Russia’s increased military support for the Assad regime has “impacted very negatively,” on the process the security council resolution set in train, according to Mr Ban.

“Our priority was to have confidence-building measures — we could have agreed a ceasefire nationwide or at least some local ceasefires so they could give some sense of hope to people [and negotiations].”

 

“Continuing aerial bombing — while it is legitimate to attack and defeat Isis and terrorist groups — has also caused a lot of civilian killings, [destruction] of civilian facilities. Extreme care should have been given particularly now the negotiations have started.”

 

“But rather than discussing these matters, all these petty procedural issues came out — such as who has to be invited or not — raised by the Syrian government.”

 

Mr Assad and Russia would not win the war in Syria by continuing their so-far successful military offensive, added Mr Ban.

 

“Military operations . . . have only a limited effect and have more negative side effects — killing the civilian population, [destroying] houses and sanitation — only a political solution can find a sustainable answer.”

 

But the UN chief also reiterated his call for recalcitrant Syrian opposition parties to drop their objections to negotiations that leave scope for president Assad to remain in power.

“We have wasted too much time over this issue . . . it’s totally unrealistic and its not right that the fate of one man like Assad should prolong and distract our attentions.”

 

Diplomats will convene in Munich next week for a meeting of the International Syria Support Group, involving all of the regional and world powers embroiled in Syria, to try and regain political momentum for talks to reopen.

 

“I am sure we can resolve this issue with the renewed commitment of the ISSG,” said Mr Ban.

 

Trying to find a diplomatic solution to the Syria crisis was like trying to navigate a “perfect storm” he said: “We have not been able to make good progress during the past five years but whether the UN should be blamed for that . . . I don't think so.”

Reflecting on his nine-year tenure as secretary-general, which comes to an end this year, Mr Ban nevertheless lamented the incapacity of the UN to have greater influence and power. “As the number of member states has grown, as more crises have happened, compounded by the international financial crisis, it has been more difficult for the UN to get solid and strong support.

“Even with much more resources, much more power, the UN has not been able to deliver what it could do in the past because division among member states has deepened. The system is being abused . . . decision by consensus and decision by unanimity are being mixed up . . . unless we change this, there is no hope for multilateralism.”

 

[Prospero]

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/695730889112883200

 

Jel ovo znači da je Daraa sledeća?

Edited February 5, 2016 by Prospero

[Prospero]

WSJ:

 

Saudi Arabia, Turkey Pushed Syrian Opposition to Leave Talks

As regime stepped up offensive, Riyadh and Ankara began to consider urging rebels to exit negotiations


ENLARGE
People inspected damage after airstrikes by pro-Syrian government forces in a rebel-held neighborhood of Aleppo, on Friday. PHOTO:ABDALRHMAN ISMAIL/REUTERS

By 
SAM DAGHER

Feb. 5, 2016 8:26 p.m. ET

GENEVA—The Syrian opposition abruptly withdrew from peace talks in Geneva this week under pressure from Saudi Arabia and Turkey, two of the main backers of the rebels, according to diplomats and at least a half-dozen opposition figures.

When stepped-up regime offensives in Syria, backed by Iran and Russia, escalated on Monday, Riyadh and Ankara began to consider telling the opposition to withdraw, according to Turkish and Saudi diplomats present in Geneva this week with the opposition.

About a half-dozen cities and towns targeted in the new regime offensives have one thing in common: All were held by a mix of Islamist and moderate rebel groups funded and armed by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Complicating the picture is that some, but not all, of these groups collaborate with the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front. That gives the regime and its allies fodder for their claim that they are fighting terrorism.

“The Russian offensives were painful,” said Louay Hussein, a prominent Syrian opposition leader and a member of the delegation that was going to engage in indirect talks with the regime. “So the Saudis and Turks said: ‘Stop. These are my cards and I am losing them one after another.’ ”

Another opposition delegate, Monzer Makhous, said the decision to leave the talks was rather easy. To have remained while the offensive escalated around Aleppo would have meant losing the support of rebels on the ground, he said.
“We want to preserve the trust of the Syrian people,” he said.

The focus of all parties is shifting to Munich, where a meeting this coming week will bring together international powers involved in the five-year conflict, including the U.S., Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. They are expected to focus first on forging a cease-fire, albeit a partial one, in the hope that this would enable the parties to restart the talks in Geneva on a political transition.

But ahead of those talks, events on the ground are moving quickly as both sides try to position themselves for a possible return to the negotiating table. Syrian regime and Iran-backed forces encircled the country’s biggest city, Aleppo, threatening to cut off a major rebel supply route to Turkey, as thousands of civilians fled Russian airstrikes.

“The escalation in Russian military operations could have had two objectives: Improve the situation of the regime before a cease-fire or antagonize the Syrian opposition so that it abandons the negotiations, which is what happened,” Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said Thursday, before correcting himself and blaming the regime for the breakdown in talks.

Speaking to The Wall Street Journal in Geneva this week, one senior Turkish official said his country would never accept a settlement in Syria that doesn’t take into account its own interests.

“We are not after a quick fix in Syria, we are after a big reward in the form of permanent stability in Syria because we took a huge burden,” he said referring to Turkey’s hosting of 2.5 million refugees and financial and political assistance to Syrian rebels and opposition members over nearly five years.

 

On Friday, pro-regime forces including Iranian fighters and foreign Shiite militiamen supported by Iran, captured with the help of Russian airstrikes the town of Ratyan on the outskirts of Aleppo, according to opposition activists as well as media outlets affiliated with Iran and the Syrian regime. The town is situated along the main lifeline for the opposition to neighboring Turkey. Later some opposition activists said half of the town remained contested and that fierce fighting was ongoing.

If captured, it would be the fifth town or village these forces seized from rebels since Monday, a development that has allowed them to lift a siege imposed by opponents of President Bashar al-Assad on two Shiite and pro-regime towns near Aleppo, Nubl and Zahraa. The Assad regime is dominated by the minority Alawite sect, which is linked to Shiite Islam, while the opposition and its regional backers are mainly Sunni.
Airstrikes by the regime and its allies expanded Friday to the rebel-held eastern half of Aleppo city, antigovernment activists said.

In the south, regime forces aided by Russian warplanes and Iran-backed militias captured the strategic town of Ataman, considered the gateway to the city of Daraa, according to the Syrian military and opposition activists. It was the second strategic town rebels lost in the south within 10 days.

All of these places were held by a mix of Sunni Islamist and moderate rebel groups funded and armed by Sunni-led Saudi Arabia and Turkey and in some cases in coordination with the U.S.