Sirija

[ravena]

Nije tu nista zanimljivo, stara prica kako Rusija ratuje protiv umerenih, umesto ISS (Islamic State of Siraq). 

I opet isti odgovor, Rusima i Asadu je glavna pretnja "umerena" opozicija (koja deli teritoriju sa Al Kaidom), ta opozicija drzi ceo Idlib, deo Latakije, oblasti na jugu i sa njima ima mnogo vise borbi.

ISS drzi samo Raqu, sever uz Aleppo i pustinju.  

[Gandalf]

http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/geneva-3-must-focus-on-ending-assads-vile-tactics 

According to rebel leaders affiliated to the Free Syrian Army, the regime has refused to accept prisoner swap deals with nationalist forces, while it has struck such deals with hardliners.

 

A rebel leader operating in the coastal region, for example, said the government recently exchanged six female prisoners for 28 dead bodies seized by the extremist Jund Al Aqsa in Mourik in Hama, while it has repeatedly declined to strike such a deal with his group, which has 45 regime prisoners. He complained that his group has been feeding the prisoners for more than a year and just wants to return them in exchange for freeing prisoners from their side.

 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2016 by Gandalf

[frn1782]

umlatise umerene teroriste

tuga

[Prospero]

 

 

 

MAP: THE BATTLE FOR ALEPPO – THE “MOTHER OF ALL BATTLES”

 

 

Written by Peto Lucem exclusively for SouthFront: Analysis & Intelligence; Edited by Rachel Lane

 

On February 1, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) launched their long awaited offensive in the northern Aleppo countryside. The operation’s main objective: breaking the siege of two isolated loyalist towns; Nubbol and Zahraah.

Since 2012 in this area, approximately 35,000 civilians are besieged by al-Nusra (Syria’s Al Qaida branch) and other insurgents. By reaching these two towns, SAA would also be able to cut the last supply routes running from the Turkish Border south towards Aleppo, Syria’s largest city and the country’s former commercial hub. The battle’s scale and importance led observers to name the struggle for Aleppo, The mother of all Battles. Both war parties know the side which captures Aleppo wins more than just a city. This side will win Syria’s north and therefore – most probably – the war.

Although the SAA’s offensive was predictable and the fact that the insurgents had years to entrench in the area, Government forces were able to gain ground early in their offensive. Following heavy artillery preparation fire that commenced in the early morning hours, elements of the elite 4th Mechanized Division supported by crack Hezbollah units commenced their assault. The village of Duwayr al-Zeytoun was swiftly secured. The SAA also liberated the farming areas nearby and near the village of Bashkuy. The loss of Government forces was relatively low. Only a couple of BMPs and tanks were knocked out by insurgents TOW missiles or got trapped in tank ditches. Although many observers thought this push would just be a preliminary offensive with limited goals, in order to launch the main assault some days later, the SAA pushed on. The important village of Tall Jibbin was liberated in the early afternoon.

 

Simultaneously to this attack, the SAA also assaulted the areas between Aleppo and the liberated areas to the north and expanded their control in the Al-Mallah farming area. Al -Mallah lies directly north of the strategic Castello-ring road, which represents the last insurgent supply route into Aleppo.

The first day proved to be a full success for the Government forces. An important factor was – without doubt – the attacker’s air force. The SAA received very accurate and powerful close air support (CAS) by the Russian Airforce, which flew more than 200 sorties on the first day of the offensive. Due to the Russian CAS, many of the defense lines of the insurgents crumbled. The airpower also prevented insurgent reinforcements to reach the combat areas and – most importantly – destroyed many Command and Control Centers. The death of some of the most capable and high ranked leaders and field commanders will most likely hamper the insurgents defense capabilities further in the upcoming decisive days. Opposition sources confirmed the death of many senior leaders including insurgent’s Sham Legion’s commander and his deputy. The leader of Jaish al Islam in Aleppo area was also a confirmed casualty.

On the morning of February 2, the SAA and allied forces were able to liberate the town of Hardatnin located only 4-5 kilometers to the west of the forward defense positions of Nubbol and Zahraa. They also achieved a breakthrough into the city of Rityan. Later that day, the garrison Nubbol and Zahraa also launched assaults on insurgent positions located to the their south-east and broke into the insurgent held village of Byanoon.

The following days will likely make the position of the insurgent forces deployed in Aleppo’s northern countryside worse. As soon as the army will reach Nubbol and Zahraa, Government forces will probably launch the second phase of the offensive operation. By that, they will most likely attack insurgent held areas in west and northwest Aleppo in order to cut off insurgent forces inside Aleppo entirely and to widen the security zone around the city. Therefore, the SAA will have to capture Mansoura suburb in Aleppo’s west and the insurgent strongholds of Bayanoon, Haritan and Kafr Hamra and Anadan which are already under heavy SAA artillery and RuAF bombardment. The Mother of all Battles will therefore enter its final stage soon.

 

Edited February 2, 2016 by Prospero

[ravena]

I da prekinu koridor, postoji i drugi granicni prelaz za snabdevanje Idliba. 

[vathra]

The SAA received very accurate and powerful close air support (CAS) by the Russian Airforce, which flew more than 200 sorties on the first day of the offensive.   

 

На коју шему су извели 200 налета, са свега 50-ак летелица?

Једино ако су базирали Ми-24 у близини, и нон-стоп се вртели по крају (што вероватно и јесу урадили).

Али и поред тога је то много...

[vathra]

I da prekinu koridor, postoji i drugi granicni prelaz za snabdevanje Idliba. 

 

Коридор ка северу је већ пресечен, иако се нису још спојили.

Пето Луцем наводи да би могли да одсеку Алеп скроз, што је потез какав владине снаге још нису радиле од руске интервенције - пре су остављале узан коридор да побуњеници могу да се извуку.

[Utvara]

Najluđe vesti od ruskih patriota: kažu da više ne bombarduju pametnom municijom, pošto košta $25 tisuća dolara po komadu.

 

Sada bombarduju starim sovjetskim bombetinama od 500kg, kojih ima na lageru do sudnjega dana. Koriste balističke računare SV-24, sistem SVP-24 "Hefest". Bacaju sa visine od 5000m i tvrde da imaju preciznost od +/- 10m.

 

Koliko to košta kada bi se bombardovalo kako treba, ja ne smem ni da zamislim. Da se te pare uzmu i daju na sirotinju, klaste, slepe i uboge, progledali bi svi i potrčali kao fudbaleri.

[vathra]

Па од почетка тако гађају, и прецизност јесте као што наводе.

Вођена средства користе кад је потребно.

[Muwan]

Presekli su izgleda skroz taj glavni koridor rebela ka Turskoj.

[ravena]

Presekli su izgleda skroz taj glavni koridor rebela ka Turskoj.

 

Zar nemaju oni jos jedan granicni prelaz sa Turskom u provinciji Idlib?

Spojili su se onom bazom i eventualno bi mogli da zatvore obruc oko Aleppa. 

[namenski]

Najluđe vesti od ruskih patriota: kažu da više ne bombarduju pametnom municijom, pošto košta $25 tisuća dolara po komadu.

 

Sada bombarduju starim sovjetskim bombetinama od 500kg, kojih ima na lageru do sudnjega dana. Koriste balističke računare SV-24, sistem SVP-24 "Hefest". Bacaju sa visine od 5000m i tvrde da imaju preciznost od +/- 10m.

 

Koliko to košta kada bi se bombardovalo kako treba, ja ne smem ni da zamislim. Da se te pare uzmu i daju na sirotinju, klaste, slepe i uboge, progledali bi svi i potrčali kao fudbaleri.

 

A mozda postoji i jednostavnije objasnjenje: NEMA, ponestaje 

Inace, prosecna starost ruskog vazduhoplovnog hardvera je 25 - 30 godina: Sirija jos i moze da prodje, doduse ne u beskonacnost, a vec traje predugo, razvuklo se, moze da prodje i lozenje na rusko oruzje, ruskog vojnika i ostala stereotipna sranja, ali za nesto vise od toga - mrka kapa.

Ruska intervencija u Siriji sve vise gubi smisao i politicki i vojni jer jednostavno traje nedopustivo predugo.

Imala je smisla samo kao masivna i brza, vremenski ogranicena operacija sa jasnim ciljem da odsudno utice na dogadjaje, odnosno podrzi izabranu stranu.

Ovako, stvar se sve vise svodi na iscrpljivanje, s tim sto su vlastodrsci u Kremlju prevideli da - kako sada stvari stoje - iscrpljuju sami sebe.

Izgubile su se cak i inace delimicne i inace upitne politicke i psiholoske prednosti ruske intervencije i svakim danom se gube sve vise.

[ravena]

A mozda postoji i jednostavnije objasnjenje: NEMA, ponestaje 

Inace, prosecna starost ruskog vazduhoplovnog hardvera je 25 - 30 godina: Sirija jos i moze da prodje, doduse ne u beskonacnost, a vec traje predugo, razvuklo se, moze da prodje i lozenje na rusko oruzje, ruskog vojnika i ostala stereotipna sranja, ali za nesto vise od toga - mrka kapa.

Ruska intervencija u Siriji sve vise gubi smisao i politicki i vojni jer jednostavno traje nedopustivo predugo.

Imala je smisla samo kao masivna i brza, vremenski ogranicena operacija sa jasnim ciljem da odsudno utice na dogadjaje, odnosno podrzi izabranu stranu.

Ovako, stvar se sve vise svodi na iscrpljivanje, s tim sto su vlastodrsci u Kremlju prevideli da - kako sada stvari stoje - iscrpljuju sami sebe.

Izgubile su se cak i inace delimicne i inace upitne politicke i psiholoske prednosti ruske intervencije i svakim danom se gube sve vise.

 

Ne bih se slozio. 

Bez ruske intervencije Assad bi bio izgubljen. Na pocetku je imao neugodnu situaciju u Latakiji, pat poziciju u Alepu i spremao mu se kraj. Sada je skoro ocistio Latakiju od zelenih, pokrenuta je ofanziva u Alepu gde su se prosiril jugozapadno i severoistocno, na jugu je osvojeno par mesta i zelena koalicija ce uskoro biti suocena sa napadom sa dva pravca. 

[namenski]

Moze biti, ne kazem.

Samo, Asad je Asad, a Rusi su Rusi, mislim na interese: neka je Asad na dobitku sa ruskom intervencijom, a jeste - nema opipljivog ruskog dobitka ni na krace staze ni u perspektivi.

Intervencija je bila pokazivanje misica radi samog pokazivanja: i da Asad definitivno pobedi i ucvrsti se, Rusima bi, da materijalizuju dobitak u Siriji koja ce i posle Asadove pobede da ostane poprilicno izolovana, bile potrebne godine i milijarde da se u Siriji ucvrste, pa ce i tada da ostane pitanje sta ce tamo jer - kao jedva regionalna sila - u Siriji nemaju sta da traze ni politicki ni vojno.

Rusko nastojanje u tom pravcu moze Rusiju samo da kosta i to do granice pucanja, a moze nekom da posluzi i za igru iscrpljivanja Rusije i to za male pare.

Obaska sto su u slucaju ozbiljnog zakuvavanja na Bliskom Istoku, Rusija jednostavno nije igrac, nema kapacitete, ni ekonomske ni vojne, da na terenu igra iole znacajnu ulogu.

[ravena]

Moze biti, ne kazem.

Samo, Asad je Asad, a Rusi su Rusi, mislim na interese: neka je Asad na dobitku sa ruskom intervencijom, a jeste - nema opipljivog ruskog dobitka ni na krace staze ni u perspektivi.

Intervencija je bila pokazivanje misica radi samog pokazivanja: i da Asad definitivno pobedi i ucvrsti se, Rusima bi, da materijalizuju dobitak u Siriji koja ce i posle Asadove pobede da ostane poprilicno izolovana, bile potrebne godine i milijarde da se u Siriji ucvrste, pa ce i tada da ostane pitanje sta ce tamo jer - kao jedva regionalna sila - u Siriji nemaju sta da traze ni politicki ni vojno.

Rusko nastojanje u tom pravcu moze Rusiju samo da kosta i to do granice pucanja, a moze nekom da posluzi i za igru iscrpljivanja Rusije i to za male pare.

Obaska sto su u slucaju ozbiljnog zakuvavanja na Bliskom Istoku, Rusija jednostavno nije igrac, nema kapacitete, ni ekonomske ni vojne, da na terenu igra iole znacajnu ulogu.

 

Cekaj, pises u svom prethodnom postu da je problem sto ce intervencija da se oduzi, a sad da je intervencija problem sama po sebi?