Sirija

[Prospero]

Mislim da ovo oko izbora ciljeva uglavnom izvire iz korena intervencije. Ako su Rusi bili na poziciji da je Asad toliko slab da će u nekom bliskom trenutku pasti (a što su im izvesno i Iranci suflirali) onda je odabir ciljeva koji su zapravo bliski liniji Asadovog fronta i direktno ugrožavaju njegove pozicije na izvestan način logičan, iako je, jasno, bitno različit od deklarisanih altruističkih ciljeva borbe protiv ID. Drugim rečima - major bulshitting.

Ok, zahvatiće Rusi i ID, tu i tamo, možda se vremenom u potpunosti preorijentišu na ID.  -_- 

Sa vojne tačke gledišta, a nebitno sa koje političke, potpuno je besmisleno bombradovati Raku i uopšte mesta u dubini ID teritorije. Nije to Nemačka u 2SR da se jure neke vojne fabrike i slična infrastruktura; gađati bilo šta osim linije fronta i vojno relevantne bliske pozadine (magacini, C3 tačke i slično) je bezveze.

[iDemo]

zamalo da poverujem u njihove narodno-oslobodilačke planove, kada se malo bolje proanaliziraju, akcije im nikad nisu ni bile 100% popločane dobrim namerama

Pa kad nisu krenuli na prvomajski uranak nego u vojnu intervenciju.

[Caligula]

... i onda su digli ruke već u septembru, zgroženi Asadovom brutalnošću. Kažem ja, prave pesničke dušice i romantični idealisti.

 

... taj rad.

 

Suplje je ovo do zla boga.

[Muwan]

Sa vojne tačke gledišta, a nebitno sa koje političke, potpuno je besmisleno bombradovati Raku i uopšte mesta u dubini ID teritorije. Nije to Nemačka u 2SR da se jure neke vojne fabrike i slična infrastruktura; gađati bilo šta osim linije fronta i vojno relevantne bliske pozadine (magacini, C3 tačke i slično) je bezveze.

 

Ne baš skroz bez veze. U dubini teritorije nema smisla gađati MTS ciljeve ali ako obaveštajci i sateliti lociraju neku VIP personu onda se isplati. Uz to vredi poslati poruku glavosečama da im dubina teritorije nužno ne garantuje bezbednost.

[Prospero]

Teško da Rusi imaju tehnološke kapacitete za tu vrstu izviđanja i brze borbene reakcije. Sateliti i komunucirianje s njima prosto nisu dovoljno brzi, nemaju naoružane UAV koje patroliraju i reaguju itd itd. Mogu da gađaju C3 centre, statičke objekte, ali verujem da je njihv fin deo već uništen od strane Amera, a i dosad je Daeš naučio neka pravila kamuflaže i skrivanja.
 
 
 
Lukjanov, par zanimljivih momenata oko ruske pozicije:
 
 

Fighting Evil Separately
2 october 2015
Fyodor Lukyanov
 
The first substantive meeting between the Russian and US presidents turned out to be as successful as it possibly could. The two countries have extremely strained relations, and their stances on the most critical issues range from strongly divergent to diametrically opposite. Mutual trust is at an all-time low since the Cold War, and maybe even longer. With all this in mind, what we heard after the ninety-minute talks should be regarded as a sign of progress.

Syria was the only issue on the agenda, or nearly so, that reflects the current state of Russian-US bilateral relations, in which raising a broader range of issues does not make much sense. Overall, the differences are so important that trying to narrow the gap seems like a waste of time. But when a specific issue emerges that is important for both parties, and when the perspectives coincide, be it slightly (as with ISIS, in this case), a business-like discussion is possible.

This has nothing to do with cooperation in fighting a common enemy. The fact that both leaders are speaking about a coalition to combat the Islamic State points to different, not coinciding, approaches, since the two have their own vision of the coalition that should be created.

For the US, the possible coalition would be a group of countries that share the American strategy and agree to follow along the lines the US traces. However, this line is not clear. The main reproach Obama constantly hears is that his Middle East policy is inconsistent, that it is unclear whether it is pursuing a specific objective, and to what extent the White House is committed to achieving it.

When comparing the coalition he would like to see with the anti-Hitler coalition, Vladimir Putin implied that Moscow is ready to lay aside all other divergences for the time it takes to combat ISIS and expects others to do the same. The information center established by Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria is likely to serve as a blueprint for further efforts. The Russian president invited everyone to join it.

Bashar al-Assad’s fate was and still is the main stumbling block. Putin has publicly called for relying on Damascus as a foundation for combatting ISIS, while Obama called the Syrian leader a dictator and once again said that the US expects him to leave power. For many US observers, Obama’s bold statements are not so much an expression of his inflexible will as they are an attempt to masque his qualms on this issue. To fight in Syria against ISIS and the al-Assad regime at the same time, which is now the official approach of the US, would mean bringing about increasingly unmanageable and unpredictable contradictions. Renouncing the demand for the Syrian leader to resign seems impossible, since it puts into question the Syrian policy over the last four and a half years. However frightening the prospect of leaving Syria in total ruin may be, this is the most likely outcome of the contradictory approaches advocated by Russia and the US. This could spell the onset of a different, more catastrophe-prone environment in the Middle East. In any event, by taking Damascus, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi would take his bid to create a caliphate one step closer to reality.

There is no doubt that Moscow understands that Syria will no longer be the way it once was, neither in terms of government nor borders. If returning to a pre-war situation is not an option, consultations should take place to determine how the country will be governed in the future. But what comes first? Russia believes that the first thing should be to understand when the advance of the Islamists will stop, if ever, and demarcating the remaining territory. Only after that can discussions on how to run this zone begin. Russia has a negative opinion of the Western-backed opposition. In his statement at the General Assembly, Putin said that only the Syrian government forces and the Kurdish militia are fighting ISIS.

The West insists on the need for diplomatic efforts to establish a coalition government in Syria, even if this means working with the proponents of the current regime, which is a substantial shift, but without al-Assad. Meanwhile, some are becoming increasingly vocal about the fact that al-Assad’s withdrawal should be a result, not a prerequisite of the negotiating process.

All disputes that are regularly brought into the public eye could continue alongside military and technical initiatives in the conflict zone. The main outcome of the meeting between Putin and Obama, which was confirmed by both parties, is that the military of the two countries will keep each other updated on the developments on the ground. This is a vital issue, since when two military superpowers are operating in the same space, the risk of unintended tension is much higher. In other words, based on what we know about the results of the meeting, it's possible to draw the conclusion that Russia and the United States agreed, perhaps by default, not to stand in each other’s way in Syria. They have at least one common enemy there, and the two capitals agree on how dangerous it is. On all other issues their positions are different. This outcome may be modest, but at this point in time it is nothing short of a success.

 

[Ayatollah]

Koliko su ove vesti pouzdane ?

 

 

Chinese warplanes to join Russian air strikes in Syria. Russia gains Iraqi air base

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 2, 2015, 1:27 PM (IDT)

Tags:  China,  Russian forces in Syria,  Aircraft carriers,  air strike,  Iraqi air bases,  ISIS,

 

 

Russia’s military intervention in Syria has expanded radically in two directions.DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report that China sent word to Moscow Friday, Oct. 2, that J-15 fighter bombers would shortly join the Russian air campaign that was launched Wednesday, Sept. 30. Baghdad has moreover offered Moscow an air base for targeting the Islamic State now occupying large swathes of Iraqi territory
Russia’s military intervention in Syria has five additional participants: China, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hizballah.

The J-15 warplanes will take off from the Chinese Liaoning-CV-16 aircraft carrier, which reached Syrian shores on Sept. 26 (as DEBKAfile exclusively reported at the time). This will be a landmark event for Beijing: its first military operation in the Middle East as well the carrier’s first taste of action in conditions of real combat.

Thursday night, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi, made this comment on the Syrian crisis at a UN Security Council session in New York: “The world cannot afford to stand by and look on with folded arms, but must also not arbitrarily interfere (in the crisis).”

A no less significant development occurred at about the same time when Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, speaking to the US PBS NewsHour, said he would welcome a deployment of Russian troops to Iraq to fight ISIS forces in his country too. As an added incentive, he noted that this would also give Moscow the chance to deal with the 2,500 Chechen Muslims whom, he said, are fighting with ISIS in Iraq.  

DEBKAfile’s military sources add that Al-Abadi’s words came against the backdrop of two events closely related to Russia’s expanding role in the war arena:

1.  A joint Russian-Iranian-Syrian-Iraqi war room has been working since last week out of the Iraqi Defense Ministry and military staff headquarters in Baghdad to coordinate the passage of Russian and Iranian airlifts to Syria and also Russian air raids. This command center is also organizing the transfer of Iranian and pro-Iranian Shiite forces into Syria.

2.  Baghdad and Moscow have just concluded a deal for the Russian air force to start using the Al Taqaddum Air Base at Habbaniyah, 74 km west of Baghdad, both as a way station for the Russian air corridor to Syria and as a launching-pad for bombing missions against ISIS forces and infrastructure in northern Iraq and northern Syria.

Russia has thus gained a military enclave in Iraq, just as it has in Syria, where it has taken over a base outside Latakia on the western coast of Syria. At the same time, the Habbaniyah air base also serves US forces operating in Iraq, which number an estimated 5,000.

 

[iDemo]

 

 

As an added incentive, he noted that this would also give Moscow the chance to deal with the 2,500 Chechen Muslims whom, he said, are fighting with ISIS in Iraq.  

Rek'o ja, bonus poeni... 

[Prospero]

^^ Pouzdanost niska do nikakva.

 

Ali svet ubrzano postaje vrlo zanimljivo mesto za život, pa ništa više nije usključeno :D

[Lord Protector]

Ne baš skroz bez veze. U dubini teritorije nema smisla gađati MTS ciljeve ali ako obaveštajci i sateliti lociraju neku VIP personu onda se isplati. Uz to vredi poslati poruku glavosečama da im dubina teritorije nužno ne garantuje bezbednost.

 

To se desilo sinoć:

 

 

13:04 - Gađano skriveno komandno mesto islamista jugoistočno od grada Rake

 

Ruska avijacija prvi put je gađala glavno uporište Islamske države provinciju Raka u Siriji i ubila najmanje 12 džihadista, saopštila je danas sirijska opoziciona Opservatorija za ljudska prava.

 

Rusko Ministarstvo odbrane saopštilo je da su ruski avioni u četvrtak uveče gađali Raku, koja se smatra sedištem Islamske države.

 

Ministarstvo je navelo da su ruski avioni Su-34 gađali skriveno komandno mesto islamista jugoistočno od grada Rake.

 

"U ruskom bombardovanju periferije Rake poginulo je 12 džihadista", izjavio je Frans presu direktor opservatorije Rami Abdel Rahman.

 

On je dodao da su tela ubijenih prebačena u obližnju mrtvačnicu.

Edited October 2, 2015 by slow

[Muwan]

Koliko su ove vesti pouzdane ?

 

Debka je pouzdana koliko i Pečat ali što kaže Prospero, ovde više ništa ne treba skroz isključivati.

[hazard]

Rek'o ja, bonus poeni... 

 

Baš se pitam da li su Rusi među tih 2500 ubacili par komada ,,lojalnih Čečena" koji će da javljaju FSBu sve što treba...

[Marcus Wulffings]

bili bi ludi da nisu

[Prospero]

Inače, za te napade u dubini Rusi očekivano koriste Su-34 koji ima pristojno stand-off naoružanje (Glonass vođene bombe od 500kg, pre svega) i gađa i noću sa velike visine, a za ove bliže ciljeve idu Su-24 i 25 sa klasičnim bombama i raketama sa laserskim i Tv vođenjem.

 

Koliko sam otpratio ruske sajtove, postoji izvesna zabrinutost da bi iz pravca Idliba mogla da se ubaci neka grupa prema Latakiji i izvrši blic napad na bazu, pa taj deo fronta za sada posmatraju i kao deo svoje bezbednosti, tj. neće prestati da bombarduju dok ne budu sigurni da odatle ne preti ni najmanja opasnost, ko god da je tamo na polozajima kontra Asada.

 

via TT

[Marcus Wulffings]

pa ti si pravi geo-strateški konsultant, preveslaćeš sredovečnog lazanskog

[hazard]

Prospero je perjanica GOSMUT-a! :D