Razvojno menjanje

[Zaz_pi]

Kao sto sam obecao na temi UN, a inspirisan Vucicevom pricom o Marku Veberu :P zapocinjem ovu temu.Prvo, imao sam problema gde da stavim ovu temu na forumu ali sam se odlucio za ekonomiju jer cu pricati dosta o ekonomiji.Drugo, verovatno ce izazvati dosta kontra stavova. Sto pozdravljam.Trece, mislim da je problem tzv. elite Srbije i razvoja Srbije dosta povezan sa ovom pricom.-Da li je protestantizam najbolji model za ekonomiju, kako nam sugerise Veber, a prenosi Vucic(i neki pre njega)?Pocecu od zemlje gde je stvoren protestantizam-Nemacke.-Da li bi mi verovali da su Nemce sredinom 19. veka smatrali za lenjivce?-Da li bi mi verovali da su Nemce sredinom 19 veka smatrali za previse emotivne?-Da li bi mi verovali da su Nemce sredinom 19 veka smatrali za one koji nisu posteni?-Da li bi mi verovali da su Nemacka razvila isto onako kako se Kina danas razvija-najjadnije kopiranje brendova?Meri Seli, tvorac "Franskestajna" i znacajan britanski pisac 19. veka ovako opsiuje Nemce:

‘the Germans never hurry’

Francuski industrijalac, katolik, koji je zaposlio nemacke radnike:

‘work as and when they please’

Neki Britanci su isli toliko daleko da su opisivali Nemce kao tupoglave:

According to John Russell, a travel writer of the 1820s, the Germans were a ‘plodding, easily contented people . . . endowed neither with great acuteness of perception nor quickness of feeling’. In particular, according to Russell, they were not open to new ideas; ‘it is long before [a German] can be brought to comprehend the bearings of what is new to him, and it is difficult to rouse him to ardour in its pursuit.’ No wonder that they were ‘not distinguished by enterprise or activity’, as another mid-19th century British traveller remarked.

:oNemci su smatrani za ljude koji su suvise individulaisticki nastrojeni sto onemugacava da imaju zajednicki cilj i zato im je infrastruktura losa:

The Germans’ inability to co-operate was, in the view of the British, most strongly manifested in the poor quality and maintenance of their public infrastructure, which was so bad that John McPherson, a viceroy of India (and, therefore, well used to treacherous road conditions), wrote, ‘I found the roads so bad in Germany that I directed my course to Italy’.

Sta kazete na ovo?-Nemci nisu posteni:

British travellers in the early 19th century also found the Germans dishonest – ‘the tradesman and the shopkeeper take advantage of you wherever they can, and to the smallest imaginable amount rather than not take advantage of you at all . . . This knavery is universal’, observed Sir Arthur Brooke Faulkner, a physician serving in the British army.

-Nemci su previse emotivni:

Finally, the British thought the Germans to be overly emotional. Today many British seem to think that Germans have an almost genetic emotional deficiency. Yet talking about excessive German emotion, Sir Arthur observed that ‘some will laugh all sorrows away and others will always indulge in melancholy’. Sir Arthur was an Irishman, so his calling the Germans emotional would be akin to a Finn calling the Jamaicans a gloomy lot, according to the cultural stereotypes prevailing now.

:lol:Pa, kako su se onda promenili? Pa, doci ce i taj trenutak a on je povezan sa ovim:

Da li bi mi verovali da su Nemacka razvila isto onako kako se Kina danas razvija-najjadnije kopiranje brendova?

Ali, pre toga, idemo ka jednom drugom sistemu kojeg Vucic isto ceste pominje.A, sto se tice Vebera, ne znam kako bi bas ovo objasnio posto su protestantske Nemce kritikovali i katolici iz mocnije Francuske?! Ali verujem da Vucic vec ima odgovor.

[Zaz_pi]

‘My impression as to your cheap labour was soon disillusioned when I saw your people at work. No doubt they are lowly paid, but the return is equally so; to see your men at work made me feel that you are a very satisfied easy-going race who reckon time is no object. When I spoke to some managers they informed me that it was impossible to change the habits of national heritage.’

Srbija?Jedan Australijanac u zemlji koja ima 1/4 primanja Australije u tom trenutku. Godina je 1915, a zemlja koju je opisao je Japan. :lolol:Ljudi iz tzv. Medjunarodne zajednice(citaj MMF, SB itd.) navode primer Japana, pa onda kazu da se Japan razvijo ne zbog protestantizma vec zbog konfucijanizma. Kazu, on je jos bolji za ekonomski razvoj. Ne znam kako se u to uklapaju "izgubljene: dve poslednje decenije?! Medjutim, Japan se jeste neverovatno brzo razvio, brze od protestatnskog sveta, pa i Nemacke. Onda mora biti konfucijanizam, zar ne?Pre 100 godina "zapadnjaci" su gledali na Japance kao lenjivce:

In his 1903 book, Evolution of the Japanese, the American missionary Sidney Gulick observed that many Japanese ‘give an impression . . . of being lazy and utterly indifferent to the passage of time’.

Je li se on to sali? Uostalom, ko je taj:

Gulick was no casual observer. He lived in Japan for 25 years (1888–1913), fully mastered the Japanese language and taught in Japanese universities. After his return to the US, he was known for his campaign for racial equality on behalf of Asian Americans. Nevertheless, he saw ample confirmation of the cultural stereotype of the Japanese as an ‘easygoing’ and ‘emotional’ people who possessed qualities like ‘lightness of heart, freedom from all anxiety for the future, living chiefly for the present’.

Izgleda da se nije salio.Da vidimo sta kaze levicar-socijalista, koji bi trebao biti manje sklon civilizacijskom rasizmu(ciji su promoteri bili tzv. kulturalisti medju koje spada i Veber), na proputovanju kroz Japan:

After her tour of Asia in 1911–1912, Beatrice Webb, the famous leader of British Fabian socialism, described the Japanese as having ‘objectionable notions of leisure and a quite intolerable personal independence’.She said that, in Japan, ‘there is evidently no desire to teach people to think’.

Na njen opis Korejanaca, iz tog perioda, cu se posebno osvrnuti u potonjoj prici o razvoju Koreje.Pa, dobro ipak je onda konfucijanizam?Verovatno ljudi ne znaju da je pre Istocno-azijskog buma, konfucijanizam bio optuzen za slab razvoj te oblasti :lolol:U stvari, konfucijanizam u smislu liberalne ekonomije i nije dobar. Verovatno se zato sve te zemlje i nisu razvijale po liberalnom modelu. Ali o tome kasnije. Doduse, kod Kineza znate da nije liberalni model u pitanju. Nego ruski, tacnije sovjetski NEP. :lolol:Konfucijanizam, u stvari, promovise birokratiju a ne preduzetnistvo. Ima izuzetno rigidnu socijlanu strukturu. Stavise, konfucijanizam, uvodi neku vrstu arbitrarnog sudskog sistema a ne vladavinu zakona. Doduse, japanska verzija konfucijanizma ima izrazenu lojalnost sto mnogi propovednici iz MZ kazu da ima vaznu ulogu u razvoju Japana. Kako se onda razvila Koreja, Singapur ili Kina?Do tih odgovara moramo da odemo na drugi kraj spektra, gde vladaju "lose" civilizacije koje su nesposobne.

[Zaz_pi]

Islam, toliko omrznut medj' liberalnim ekonomistima. Kazu, islam zbog svog izrazitog propovedanja zagrobnog zivota(device itd.) nije dovoljno motivisuci za razvoj dugorocnog posla. Onda, represija nad zenama i uopste represija u drustvu eliminise kreativnost itd.Covek bi pomislio da tu ima nesto. Mozda i ima ali u Srednjem veku nije imalo, kada je islam imao jos jaci uticaj na drustvo, i kada je islam bio nositelj cvilizacijskog napretka.Islam, za razliku od konfucijanizma, nema rigidnu socijalnu strukturu. Sto je bio uzrok da i mnogi hriscani na Balkanu predju na islam. Zbog toga je,u stvari , socijalno napredovanje talentovanima lakse. Stavise, Muahmed je ohrabrivao trgovinu, za razliku od konfucijanizma. Sam Muhamed bese trgovac, zar ne? Islamski svet ima izuzetnu razvijenu svest o ugovoru i obavezi. Islamske zemlje su imale sudije daleko pre hriscanskih.Muhamed kaze:

‘the ink of the scholar is more sacred than the blood of the martyr’.

Zar ovo ne promovise razvoj i nauku?Naravno da promovisu. Islamski svet je tokom Srednjeg veka bio ispred zapada sto se tice matematike, pa i medicine. Islamski svet je bio tolerantni spram Jevreja nego hriscanski. Gde su Jevreji iz Spanije otisli 1492?Pali su i radikalizovli se zbog kriza. Isto kao sto je to bio slucaj sa Nemcima u toj situaciji, ili Japancima, ili Amerikancima, ili ljudima u Jugoslaviji...Rusija, zemlja koja je imala veci razvoj krajem 19. i pocetkom 20. veka od SAD. Iako se SAD smatraju za tadasnjeg rekordera.SSSR je , koliko znam, imao veci razvoj od Zapada posle Drugog sv. rata, do sredine 60ih. To je islo cak toliko daleko da su neki u SAD govorili o SSSR kao sto danas govore o Kini. Uostalom, ne moram da vam govorim i sami znate sta su Rusi uradili u tom periodu u istrazivanju svemira. I, to bez Marsalovog plana, koji jeste pomogao Nemackoj.Da stvar bude zanimljivija, vec sam pomenuo da su Kinezi preuzeli Lenjinov-NEP kao model razvoja.

[Zaz_pi]

U svojoj mladosti-ludosti sam smatrao da je problem Srbije stanovnistvo. Da treba menjati svest ljudi i sve ce biti super. A, onda pocnes da putujes i citas, stices isksutvo. Shvatis da je na bazicnom nivou covek slican coveku bez obzira na religijske i regionale razlike. I da se sve velike grupe ljudi slicno ponasaju. I. da je svaka drzava imala tokom svoje istorije uspone i padove i da su se ljudi tokom tih oscilacija, po pravilu, isto ponasali.Onaj koji vlada, po meni, uopste ne treba da se bavi promenom svesti ljudi. To dolazi kada drzava postane bogatija a ne obrnuto.

[Zaz_pi]

Zato cu poceti od jedne zemlje koja je bila siromasnija od Srbije danas, i vecine africkih zemalja, pre nekih 50ak godina-Juzna Koreja.Kao sto sam obecao, opis Korejanaca sa pocetka 20. veka od strane Britanskog socijalsite:

She described the Koreans as ‘12 millions of dirty, degraded, sullen, lazy and religionless savages who slouch about in dirty white garments of the most inept kind and who live in filthy mudhuts’

Posle ovoga "divnog" opisa da vam opsiem sta je bio "Korejanski sat". To vam je isto kao kada putujete vozom u Srbiji ili cekate voz u Srbiji. Do pre samo 20ak godina to je bila normalna pojava u korejskom drustvu sada je u prilicnoj meri to eliminisano.Koreja je pocetkomk 60ih izasla iz katastrofalnog rata, koji je doneo preko milion mrtvih ljudi za samo tri godine rata. Sa velikim razaranjem infrastrukture i na jugu i severu(ofanzive su bile takve da su padali veliki delovi obe strane pod protivnicku stranu).Ali da vam je ne govorim, evo opisa stanja od strane Korejanca:

In 1961, eight years after the end of its fratricidal war with North Korea, South Korea’s yearly income stood at $82 per person. The average Korean earned less than half the average Ghanaian citizen ($179). The Korean War – which, incidentally, started on June 25, Mozambique’s independence day – was one of the bloodiest in human history, claiming four million lives in just over three years (1950–3). Half of South Korea’s manufacturing base and more than 75% of its railways were destroyed in the conflict. The country had shown some organizational ability by managing to raise its literacy ratio to 71% by 1961 from the paltry 22% level it had inherited in 1945 from its Japanese colonial masters, who had ruled Korea since 1910. But it was widely considered a basket case of developmental failure. A 1950s internal report from USAID – the main US government aid agency then, as now – called Korea a ‘bottomless pit’. At the time, the country’s main exports were tungsten, fish and other primary commodities.

Pa, kaze:

As for Samsung, * now one of the world’s leading exporters of mobile phones, semiconductors and computers, the company started out as an exporter of fish, vegetables and fruit in 1938, seven years before Korea’s independence from Japanese colonial rule. Until the 1970s, its main lines of business were sugar refining and textiles that it had set up in the mid-1950s. When it moved into the semiconductor industry by acquiring a 50% stake in Korea Semiconductor in 1974, no one took it seriously. After all, Samsung did not even manufacture colour TV sets until 1977. When it declared its intention, in 1983, to take on the big boys of the semiconductor industry from the US and Japan by designing its own chips, few were convinced. Korea, one of the poorest places in the world, was the sorry country I was born into on October 7 1963. Today I am a citizen of one of the wealthier, if not wealthiest, countries in the world. During my lifetime, per capita income in Korea has grown something like 14 times, in purchasing power terms. It took the UK over two centuries (between the late 18th century and today) and the US around one and half centuries (the 1860s to the present day) to achieve the same result. The material progress I have seen in my 40-odd years is as though I had started life as a British pensioner born when George III was on the throne or as an American grandfather born while Abraham Lincoln was president.

A, kako se zivelo:

The house I was born and lived in until I was six was in what was then the north-western edge of Seoul, Korea’s capital city. It was one of the small (two-bedroom) but modern homes that the government built with foreign aid in a programme to upgrade the country’s dilapidated housing stock. It was made with cement bricks and was poorly heated, so it was rather cold in winter – the temperature in Korea’s winter can sink to 15 or even 20 degrees below zero. There was no flushing toilet, of course: that was only for the very rich. Yet my family had some great luxuries that many others lacked, thanks to my father, an elite civil servant in the Finance Ministry who had diligently saved his scholarship money while studying at Harvard for a year. We owned a black-and-white TV set, which exerted a magnetic pull on our neighbours. One family friend, an up-and-coming young dentist at St Mary’s, one of the biggest hospitals in the country, somehow used to find the time to visit us whenever there was a big sports match on TV – ostensibly for reasons totally unrelated to the match. In today’s Korea, he would be contemplating upgrading the second family TV in the bedroom to a plasma screen. A cousin of mine who had just moved from my father’s native city of Kwangju to Seoul came to visit on one occasion and quizzed my mother about the strange white cabinet in the living room. It was our refrigerator (the kitchen being too small to accommodate it).My wife, Hee-Jeong, born in Kwangju in 1966, tells me that her neighbours would regularly ‘deposit’ their precious meat in the refrigerator of her mother, the wife of a prosperous doctor, as if she were the manager of an exclusive Swiss private bank. A small cement-brick house with a black-and-white TV and a refrigerator may not sound much, but it was a dream come true for my parents’ generation, who had lived through the most turbulent and deprived times: Japanese colonial rule (1910–45), the Second World War, the division of the country into North and South Korea (1948) and the Korean War. Whenever I and my sister, Yonhee, and brother, Hasok, complained about food, my mother would tell us how spoilt we were. She would remind us that, when they were our age, people of her generation would count themselves lucky if they had an egg. Many families could not afford them; even those who could reserved them for fathers and working older brothers. She used to recall her heartbreak when her little brother, starving during the Korean War at the age of five, said that he would feel better if he could only hold a rice bowl in his hands, even if it was empty. For his part, my father, a man with a healthy appetite who loves his beef, had to survive as a secondary school student during the Korean War on little more than rice, black-market margarine from the US army, soy sauce and chilli paste. At the age of ten, he had to watch helplessly as his seven-year-old younger brother died of dysentery, a killer disease then that is all but unknown in Korea today. Years later, in 2003, when I was on leave from Cambridge and staying in Korea, I was showing my friend and mentor, Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Laureate economist, around the National Museum in Seoul. We came across an exhibition of beautiful black-and-white photographs showing people going about their business in Seoul’s middle-class neighbourhoods during the late 1950s and the early 1960s. It was exactly how I remembered my childhood. Standing behind me and Joe were two young women in their early twenties. One screamed, ‘How can that be Korea? It looks like Vietnam!’

-Skole u Koreji su imale od 60 ucenika po razredu, privatne tj. bolje, do 90 drzavne. Nije bas savrseno mesto za obrazovanje.-Americka pomoc je tokom 60ih smanjena.Da ne idem dalje, svima je jasno da je stanje bilo veoma lose. Pa, kako se onda razvila J. koreja?-Drzvano upravljanje-Carine-kontrola uvoza-zabrana izlaska iz zemljeGeneral Park, tada predsednik koji je vec bio izveo drzavni udar i vladao apsolutisticki, je uveo 1973 program pod nazivom Heavy and Chemical Industrialization (HCI):

The first steel mill and the first modern shipyard went into production, and the first locally designed cars (made mostly from imported parts) rolled off the production lines. New firms were set up in electronics, machinery, chemicals and other advanced industries. During this period, the country’s per capita income grew phenomenally by more than five times, in US dollar terms, between 1972 and 1979. Park’s apparently delusional goal of $1, 000 per capita income by 1981 was actually achieved four years ahead of schedule. Exports grew even faster, increasing nine times, in US dollar terms, between 1972 and 1979.

Kontrola uvoza se odvijala Orvelovski:

The country’s obsession with economic development was fully reflected in our education. We learned that it was our patriotic duty to report anyone seen smoking foreign cigarettes. The country needed to use every bit of the foreign exchange earned from its exports in order to import machines and other inputs to develop better industries. Valuable foreign currencies were really the blood and sweat of our ‘industrial soldiers’ fighting the export war in the country’s factories. Those squandering them on frivolous things, like illegal foreign cigarettes, were ‘traitors’. I don’t believe any of my friends actually went as far as reporting such ‘acts of treason’. But it did feed the gossip mill when kids saw foreign cigarettes in a friend’s house. The friend’s father – it was almost invariably men who smoked – would be darkly commented on as an unpatriotic and therefore immoral, if not exactly criminal, individual.

Kladim se da ovo niste ocekivali.Carine i kontrola kretanja:

Spending foreign exchange on anything not essential for industrial development was prohibited or strongly discouraged through import bans, high tariffs and excise taxes (which were called luxury consumption taxes). ‘Luxury’ items included even relatively simple things, like small cars, whisky or cookies. I remember the minor national euphoria when a consignment of Danish cookies was imported under special government permission in the late 1970s. For the same reason, foreign travel was banned unless you had explicit government permission to do business or study abroad. As a result, despite having quite a few relatives living in the US, I had never been outside Korea until I travelled to Cambridge at the age of 23 to start as a graduate student there in 1986.

Kako je vecina prolazili:

Korea’s economic ‘miracle’ was not, of course, without its dark sides. Many girls from poor families in the countryside were forced to find a job as soon as they left primary school at the age of 12 – to ‘get rid of an extra mouth’ and to earn money so that at least one brother could receive higher education.Many ended up as housemaids in urban middle-class families, working for room and board and, if they were lucky, a tiny amount of pocket money. The other girls, and the less fortunate boys, were exploited in factories where conditions were reminiscent of 19th-century ‘dark satanic mills’ or today’s sweatshops in China. In the textile and garment industries, which were the main export industries, workers often worked 12 hours or more in very hazardous and unhealthy conditions for low pay. Some factories refused to serve soup in the canteen, lest the workers should require an extra toilet break that might wipe out their wafer-thin profit margins. Conditions were better in the newly emerging heavy industries – cars, steel, chemicals, machinery and so on – but, overall, Korean workers, with their average 53–4 hour working week, put in longer hours than just about anyone else in the world at the time. Urban slums emerged. Because they were usually up in the low mountains that comprise a great deal of the Korean landscape, they were nicknamed ‘Moon Neighbourhoods’, after a popular TV sitcom series of the 1970s. Families of five or six would be squashed into a tiny room and hundreds of people would share one toilet and a single standpipe for running water. Many of these slums would ultimately be cleared forcefully by the police and the residents dumped in far-flung neighbourhoods, with even worse sanitation and poorer road access, to make way for new apartment blocks for the ever-growing middle class. If the poor could not get out of the new slums fast enough (though getting out of the slums was at least possible, given the rapid growth of the economy and the creation of new jobs), the urban sprawl would catch up with them and see them rounded up once again and dumped in an even more remote place. Some people ended up scavenging in the city’s main rubbish dump, Nanji Island. Few people outside Korea were aware that the beautiful public parks surrounding the impressive Seoul Football Stadium they saw during the 2002 World Cup were built literally on top of the old rubbish dump on the island (which nowadays has an ultra-modern eco-friendly methane-burning power station, which taps into the organic material dumped there).

Nisu bas lepe price. Ali to je ocekivano.-Piraterija:

Today, Korea is one of the most ‘inventive’ nations in the world – it ranks among the top five nations in terms of the number of patents granted annually by the US Patent Office. But until the mid-1980s it lived on ‘reverse engineering’. My friends would buy ‘copy’ computers that were made by small workshops, which would take apart IBM machines, copy the parts, and put them together. It was the same with trademarks. At the time, the country was one of the ‘pirate capitals’ of the world, churning out fake Nike shoes and Louis Vuitton bags in huge quantities. Those who had more delicate consciences would settle for near-counterfeits. There were shoes that looked like Nike but were called Nice, or shoes that had the Nike swoosh but with an extra prong.

Kao danasnja Kina ili Srbija, u nekim segmentima.Razlog razvoja:

This neo-liberal establishment would have us believe that, during its miracle years between the 1960s and the 1980s, Korea pursued a neo-liberal economic development strategy. The reality, however, was very different indeed. What Korea actually did during these decades was to nurture certain new industries, selected by the government in consultation with the private sector, through tariff protection, subsidies and other forms of government support (e.g., overseas marketing information services provided by the state export agency) until they ‘grew up’ enough to withstand international competition. The government owned all the banks, so it could direct the life blood of business – credit. Some big projects were undertaken directly by state-owned enterprises – the steel maker, POSCO, being the best example – although the country had a pragmatic, rather than ideological, attitude to the issue of state ownership. If private enterprises worked well, that was fine; if they did not invest in important areas, the government had no qualms about setting up state-owned enterprises (SOEs); and if some private enterprises were mismanaged, the government often took them over, restructured them, and usually (but not always) sold them off again. The Korean government also had absolute control over scarce foreign exchange (violation of foreign exchange controls could be punished with the death penalty). When combined with a carefully designed list of priorities in the use of foreign exchange, it ensured that hard-earned foreign currencies were used for importing vital machinery and industrial inputs. The Korean government heavily controlled foreign investment as well, welcoming it with open arms in certain sectors while shutting it out completely in others, according to the evolving national development plan. It also had a lax attitude towards foreign patents, encouraging ‘reverse engineering’ and overlooking ‘pirating’ of patented products. The popular impression of Korea as a free-trade economy was created by its export success. But export success does not require free trade, as Japan and China have also shown. Korean exports in the earlier period – things like simple garments and cheap electronics – were all means to earn the hard currencies needed to pay for the advanced technologies and expensive machines that were necessary for the new, more difficult industries, which were protected through tariffs and subsidies. At the same time, tariff protection and subsidies were not there to shield industries from international competition forever, but to give them the time to absorb new technologies and establish new organizational capabilities until they could compete in the world market. The Korean economic miracle was the result of a clever and pragmatic mixture of market incentives and state direction. The Korean government did not vanquish the market as the communist states did. However, it did not have blind faith in the free market either. While it took markets seriously, the Korean strategy recognized that they often need to be corrected through policy intervention.

POSCO je i danas medju top 5 proizvodjaca celika u svetu.Prica o razvoju jedne protestantske zemlje koja je posle svima govorila kako nisu dovoljno liberlani dolazi.

[Agni]

Nejasno je sta pokusavas da dokazes svim tim primerima.

[Indy]

Nisi valjda ovo sve procitao?

[henrik larsson]

Nejasno je sta pokusavas da dokazes svim tim primerima.

Da je Alek drugi srpski Isus.

[radisa]

Da su Srbi 21. veka isto što i Nemci 19. veka i Japanci 20. veka.

[Indy]

Nadam se da nije u pravu. Japanci su najebali najstrasnije u 20. veku.

[Agni]

Nisi valjda ovo sve procitao?

Jesam. Tema je potencijalno veoma zanimljiva ali, sto bi rekao Vasa, strepnja mi je dublja od nade.

[Gandalf]

2Zaz_pi: Korejanac koga citiras je Ha-Joon Chang?

[Zaz_pi]

Dobrim delom-da. Meni su kod njega interesantni istorijski primeri i kako su se zemlje razvijale i kako su menjale pricu sa razvojem. On je radio u Svetskoj banci, Azijskoj razvojnoj, Evropskoj razvojnoj, Ujedinjenim nacijama a sada radi na Kembridzu.

Nejasno je sta pokusavas da dokazes svim tim primerima.

Pokusavam da kazem da ne verujem u predodredjenost neke religije ili nacije na ekonomski uspeh. Takodje, kako se menja kolektivna svest naroda drzave koja dozivljava brz ekonomski rast. A, to je stav mnogih i mnogo je predrasuda, ne samo u Srbiji, vec i MZ. Ukljucujuci i najvaznije finansijske institucije sveta poput MMF i SB. Stavise, oni cesto to pospesuju. O cemu Cang prica iz licnog iskustva.Evo jednog primera, Velika Britanija. Smatra se da je Britanija postavila temelje liberalnog kapitalizma. Medjutima, da vidimo kako se Britanija razvila i zasto je promenila svoju pricu ka liberalnom modelu.Ali da vidimo na sta je Britanija bila spremna cak i kada je propagirala sto nize carine u svetu.Hong Kong je postao deo Britanije ugovorom iz Nankinga 1842. Razlog je bio poraz Kine u Opijumskom ratu. Naravno, taj rat je Kini nametnut jer je Kina ostvarila veliki trgovinski suficit sa Britanijom zbog trgovine cajem. Britanije to nije htela da trpi i iskoristila je vojsku i drogu. Tacnije, Brianija je ilegalno iz Indije izvozila opijum u Kinu, u Kini opijum nije bio legalan, bukvalno stvarajuci bazu zavisnika u Kini. Kada je Kina shvataila da droga stvara ogroman broj zavisnika konfiskovala je jedan tovar 1841 opijuma sto je Britanija iskoristila da zapocne rat.Britanija jeste napravila prvi globalni trgovinski sistem ali je on bio zasnovana na britanskom oruzju i nametanju niskih carina kako bi Britanija sto lakse izvozila. Zbog toga je Azija u 19. veku katastrofalno pala. Do sredine 18. veka je skoro 50% svetskog BDP bilo skoncetrisano u Kini i Indiji:

Between 1870 and 1913, per capita income in Asia (excluding Japan) grew at 0.4% per year, while that in Africa grew at 0.6% per year.11 The corresponding figures were 1.3% for Western Europe and 1.8% per year for the USA. It is particularly interesting to note that the Latin American countries, which by that time had regained tariff autonomy and were boasting some of the highest tariffs in the world, grew as fast as the US did during this period.

Danasnji ljudi to ne mogu da shvate ali Azija je stotinama godina bila ekonomski centar sveta. Velika promena nastaje tek tokom 19. veka kroz vojne intervencije. Azijske drzave nisu ispratile tehnoloski i takticki razvoj vojske. I to su skupo platili. Zato su drzave poput Britanije i Rusije zavladale velikim delom Azije, zbog cega su te drzave pocele da se neverovatno ekonomski razvijaju.Drugim recima, protestantizam, uopste hriscanstvo, se moze vise vezivati za ratove i pokoravanje nego za ekonomiju. Mada je i to pogresno. Jer se slicno, ali u suprotnom smeru, desavalo ranije kada su mnogi azijski narodi unistavali Evropu, ukljucujuci i Rim, odakle je dolazila njihova velika ekonomska moc.

[Zaz_pi]

Danijel Defo, tvorac Robinzona Krusoa, je bio: dvostruki spijun, poslovni covek koji se bavio trgovinom vinom, cigaretama i vunom. Radio pri Vladi njenog Velicanstva na prikupljanje poreza tzv. porez na prozor(sto vise prozora to je bio veci porez za tu kucu). Menjao politicke stavove, pa prvo je radio kao spijun Torijevaca a kasnije je postao spijun Whigsa(partija je izumrla ali je igrala ogromnu ulogu u istoriji Britanije. Oni su bili skoro 300 godina glavni rival Torijevcima a onda su se pocetkom 20. veka pojavili Laburisti. Inace, zanimljivija je i prica zasto je Whigs pukao. Slicna prica vazi i za SAD, Whigs su veliki rival DP skoro 100 godina posle nezavisnosti a onda se pojavio GOP, drugim recima naziv za GOP je pogresan kada se gleda u odnosu na DP ;) ) Malo je poznata da je Defo napisao delo pod nazivom: A Plan of the English Commerce (1728). To delo je zaboravljeno ali je vazno da bi se shvatilo kako je Britanija krenula u ekonomski razvoj tokom 15. i 16. veka.U sovjoj knjizi, Defo, prikazuje kako Tjudori, Henri VII i Elizabeta I, koriste protekcionizam, subvencije, dodeljivanje monopolskih prava, industrijsku spijunazu da bi razvili industriju prerade vune, koja je u to vreme bila vrhunska tehnologija.Do Tjudora, Britanija je bila drugorazredna ekonomska zemlja koja je izvozila sirovine, poput vune, a uvozila gotove proizvode. Centar prerade vune su bile danasnje Niske zemlje(pogresno bi bilo ako bih reka da je samo Holandija jer je tu bila i Flandrija). Pre nego sto krenete sa pricom o protestantizmu, on se pojavio u 16. veku a ja ovde dobrim delom pricam o 15. veku. U stvari, u to vreme Niske zemlje nisu bile nezavisne vec su bile kontrolisane od strane Francuza i raznih Habsburga a u kasnijoj fazi su bili kolonija Spanije.Elem, ljudi u Niskim zemljama su znali kako da preradjuju vunu iz Britanije i da je vracaju na Ostrvo, ostvarujuci ekstra profit na britanskoj vuni. Henri VII odlucio da to ne moze vise tako. Uvodi porez na izvoz vune cak u jednom trenutku poptuno zabranjuje izvoz. Istu ovu politiku nastavlja i njegov nalsednik Henri VIII. U isto vreme salju misije u Niske zemlje da preuzmu tehnologiju prerade vune. Sto godina posto su uveli delimicne i potpune blokade izvoza, ukidaju se zabrane izvoza. Naravno, to je uradjeno kada je Britanija dostigla tehnoloski nivo da sama moze da preradjuje vunu i izvozi. Posto je Britanija kontrolisala sirovine i tehnologiju unistila je konkurenciju u Niskim zemljama.Ovo je trenutka kada krece rast Britanije jer sada Britanija ostvaruje suficit u trgovini sto omogucava razvoj mnogih sektora poput mornarice, a na kraju i Industrijske revolucije.

[Zaz_pi]

Kao sto sam ranije rekao, Defo je bio dvostruki spijun. Prvo je radio za Torijevca-Roberta Harlija a zatim se preokrenuo i poceo da radi za Uigsa-Roberta Uolpola. Uolpol je bio jedan od najzacajnih britanskih premijera, prvi koji se tako vodio, ako dobro znam. Uolpol je bio premijer 21 godinu(1721-1742). U delu Dzonatana Svifta-Guliverova putovanja, lik Flimnap, premijer Liliputanije i covek koji neverovatno balansira na uzetu je u stvarnosti lik Uolpola. A, balansiranje na uzetu je u stvari neverovatna poltiicka snalazljivost Uolpola.Elem, 1720 puca balon na trzistu poznat pod nazivom "Juzno more". South Sea Company je stvoren da bi smanjio dug Britanije tako sto ce ostvarivati monopol u trogivini sa J. Amerikom(tada je krenuo Rat za spansko nasledje) poput njihovog klona brata u Aziji(East-India company). Medjutim, South Sea Company nikada nije ostvario nikakav profit a kamoli nesto slicno kao East-India company. Balon sa cenom akcija je pukao 1720 i Britanija se nasla u velikim ekonomskim problemima zbog velikog duga. Ko hoce da cita o balonu "Juznog mora", moze naci dosta toga trazeci sam. U to sada necu ulaziti.Torijevac Harli zbog toga pada a Defo se okrece ka novom sefu, Uolpolu. Coveku koji je doveden da nekako pokusa da sredi finansije Britanije.Do Uolpola se ekonomska moc zasnivala na osvajanju drugih zemalja. Veliki deo prihoda vlade Britanije je dolazio od iskorisvanje sirovina osvojenih zemalja i robova.Uolpol 1721 donosi novi zakon koji ce poptuno promeniti britansku istoriju, i svetsku, jer ce to dovesti do Industrijske revolucije, ali ce dovesti, posredno, i do nezavisnosti SAD. Ovako je Uolpol objasnio svoj novi zakon Skupstini:

‘it is evident that nothing so much contributes to promote the public well-being as the exportation of manufactured goods and the importation of foreign raw matrial’.

Da bi to uradio Uolpol radi sledece:1) Povecava carine na uvoz robe industrijske robe2) Uvodi subvencije za izvoz robe3) Smanjuje carine na uvoz sirovina4) Uvodi najrigorizniju kontrolu kvaliteta proizvodnjeBritanija ostaje visoko protekcionisticka zemlja sve do 1820, kada posle poraza Napoleona, shvataju da imaju cistu situaciju na trzistu.Te 1820 Britanija ima carine na uvoz industrijske robe od skoro 50%. Da, dobro sre procitali. U to vreme Kontinentalna Evropa ima sledece: Francuska(20%), Pruska i Svajcarska(8-12%).Ali protekcionizam Britanije se samo zasnivao na gore pomenutim osnovama. Britanije je u kolonijama uvodila zabrane uvodjenja industrijske proizvodnje. Tako je npr. u Americi zabranila preradu celika i pospesivala je razvoj poljporivrede kroz robovski rad. Sto ce dovesti u nezavisnim SAD do Gradjanskog rata.Zabranjivala je izvoz robe iz kolonija koje bi mogle da predstavaljaju pretnju izvozu samog Ostrva. Tako je Indiji zabranjen izvoz pamucnog tekstila. A, 1699 sa Wool Act je zabranila izvoz vune kolonijama.Naravno, uspostavljanja monopola na trgovinu raznim proizvodima. Zbog cega ce doci do Revolucije u SAD.Adam Smit je napadao Uolpolov merkantilni sistem ali Birtanija jeste postala ono sto jeste zahvaljujuci merama Uolpola.Posle 1820 se potpuno otvara i trazi od svih da prati njen liberalni model slobodnog trzista. ;)Sledeci primer je danasnja prva ekonomija sveta, koja se isto zaalze za slobodnu trgovinu. Edited March 17, 2013 by Zaz_pi