Avionski udesi i nesreće

[Prospero]

KUALA LUMPUR - On Saturday, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak met international media for the first time to give an update on the missing Malaysia Airlines plane.

 

Here is the full text of his statement:

 

"Seven days ago Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 disappeared. We realise this is an excruciating time for the families of those on board. No words can describe the pain they must be going through. Our thoughts and our prayers are with them.

I have been appraised of the on-going search operation round the clock. At the beginning of the operation, I ordered the search area to be broadened; I instructed the Malaysian authorities to share all relevant information freely and transparently with the wider investigation team; and I requested that our friends and allies join the operation.

As of today, 14 countries, 43 ships and 58 aircraft are involved in the search. I wish to thank all the governments for their help at such a crucial time.

Since day one, the Malaysian authorities have worked hand-in-hand with our international partners - including neighbouring countries, the aviation authorities and a multinational search force - many of whom have been here on the ground since Sunday.

We have shared information in real time with authorities who have the necessary experience to interpret the data. We have been working nonstop to assist the investigation. And we have put our national security second to the search for the missing plane.

It is widely understood that this has been a situation without precedent.

We have conducted search operations over land, in the South China Sea, the Straits of Malacca, the Andaman Sea and the Indian Ocean. At every stage, we acted on the basis of verified information, and we followed every credible lead.

Sometimes these leads have led nowhere. There has been intense speculation. We understand the desperate need for information on behalf of the families and those watching around the world. But we have a responsibility to the investigation and the families to only release information that has been corroborated. And our primary motivation has always been to find the plane.

In the first phase of the search operation, we searched near MH370's last known position, in the South China Sea. At the same time, it was brought to our attention by the Royal Malaysian Air Force that, based on their primary radar, an aircraft - the identity of which could not be confirmed - made a turn back. The primary radar data showed the aircraft proceeding on a flight path which took it to an area north of the Straits of Malacca.

Given this credible data, which was subsequently corroborated with the relevant international authorities, we expanded the area of search to include the Straits of Malacca and, later, to the Andaman Sea.

Early this morning I was briefed by the investigation team - which includes the FAA, NTSB, the AAIB, the Malaysian authorities and the Acting Minister of Transport - on new information that sheds further light on what happened to MH370.

Based on new satellite information, we can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the aircraft reached the East coast of peninsular Malaysia.

Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft's transponder was switched off.

From this point onwards, the Royal Malaysian Air Force primary radar showed that an aircraft which was believed - but not confirmed - to be MH370 did indeed turn back. It then flew in a westerly direction back over peninsular Malaysia before turning northwest.

Up until the point at which it left military primary radar coverage, these movements are consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane.

Today, based on raw satellite data that was obtained from the satellite data service provider, we can confirm that the aircraft shown in the primary radar data was flight MH370. After much forensic work and deliberation, the FAA, NTSB, AAIB and the Malaysian authorities, working separately on the same data, concur.

According to the new data, the last confirmed communication between the plane and the satellite was at 8:11AM Malaysian time on Saturday 8th March. The investigations team is making further calculations which will indicate how far the aircraft may have flown after this last point of contact. This will help us to refine the search.

Due to the type of satellite data, we are unable to confirm the precise location of the plan when it last made contact with the satellite.

However, based on this new data, the aviation authorities of Malaysia and their international counterparts have determined that the plane's last communication with the satellite was in one of two possible corridors: a northern corridor stretching approximately from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to northern Thailand, or a southern corridor stretching approximately from Indonesia to the southern Indian ocean. The investigation team is working to further refine the information.

 

In view of this latest development the Malaysian authorities have refocused their investigation into the crew and passengers on board. Despite media reports that the plane was hijacked, I wish to be very clear: we are still investigating all possibilities as to what caused MH370 to deviate from its original flight path.

This new satellite information has a significant impact on the nature and scope of the search operation. We are ending our operations in the South China Sea and reassessing the redeployment of our assets. We are working with the relevant countries to request all information relevant to the search, including radar data.

As the two new corridors involve many countries, the relevant foreign embassies have been invited to a briefing on the new information today by the Malaysian Foreign Ministry and the technical experts. I have also instructed the Foreign Ministry to provide a full briefing to foreign governments which had passengers on the plane.

This morning, Malaysia Airlines has been informing the families of the passengers and crew of these new developments.

Clearly, the search for MH370 has entered a new phase. Over the last seven days, we have followed every lead and looked into every possibility. For the families and friends of those involved, we hope this new information brings us one step closer to finding the plane."

 

 

w o w

 

- 2 razdvojena isključenja (acars + transponder) 

- poleteo je u 00:41 po lokalnom, a zadnji satelitski kontakt je bio u 8:11, dakle 7:30 sati kasnije. jebote!!

[ToniAdams]

jebem ti ludilo. malocas sam cuo u kolima da su namerno iskljucene komunikacije, sad vidim ovo.

[Indy]

Ja sam avionestručnjak, ali isključibilnost™ transpondera mi zaista nema smisla (pogotovo usred leta, ajde de dok je u hangaru na štelovanjima i slično, ili kad se spusti ispod određene visine, pri sletanju).

[Muwan]

Izgleda da ko god da je uradio ovo, namera mu je bila da pokaže da petparački holivudski blokbasteri mogu da se rekonstrušu u stvarnosti

 

 

CNN je dao neuobičajeno kvalitetnu reportažu iz B777 simulatora koja pokazuje da je penjanje na 45k stopa teoretski moguće ali praktično vodi direktno u dezintegraciju letelice.

 

It's almost impossible to fly up to 45000 ft without major alarms and impact on structural integrity of the aircraft, and the sudden drop in elevation will also be impossible with the G force without structural disintegration of the aircraft. They believe there was a change in altitude but likely much less in variation. Also, the sudden initial change in course in travel direction could've have been too steep without alarms sounding and spiral out of control.

 

 

Avion verovatno jeste povećao visinu ali ne toliko. Možda su radarska očitavanja bila neprecizna. Btw, ne verujem da je bilo nekakve borbe u kokpitu ili avionu. Piloti su ili radili zajedno ili bili pod potpunom kontrolom otmičara (kao i čitav avion). Sad, zašto bi otmičar povećavao visinu do maksimuma? Pa, jedan špekulativno-holivudski razlog bi bio taj što tako možeš brzo i efikasno da komiraš većinu putnika kako ti ne bi smetali...

 

 

Malezijski premijer je jutros potvrdio sledeće:

 

- plane is flown away from Northern part of Malaysia

- ACARS disabled before aircraft entered Malaysia

- transporder switched off in Malaysia/Vietnam border

- aircraft flew over peninsula Malaysia, then continued on northwest

- all consistent with actions of someone from inside the plane

- Last satellite communication with the plane was 8.11 am Malaysian time last Saturday.

 

 

Ovo poslednje je potpuno neverovatno a mislim da je potvrđeno da nije lapsus. Avion je poleteo oko 00:25 po lokalnom vremenu. Ako su Amerikanci poslednji SATCOM ping uhvatili u 08:11 po lokalnom vremenu, to znači da je avion u tom trenutku bio gotovo 8 sati u vazduhu i leteo na poslednjim kapima goriva (a još uvek je bio na visini krstarenja). Gde je sve do tog trenutka mogao da stigne, to ni onaj odozgo više ne zna.

 

Navedena su i dva moguća koridora kojima je šmugnuo:

 

 

 

Onaj severni deluje prokleto nemoguće (mada, sve što je do sada potvrđeno da se dogodilo takođe spada u domen prokleto nemogućeg) dočim ovaj južni vodi u 1 veliko nigde gde se ne nalazi ništa, to jest, skoro ništa.

 

Australiji se verovatno nije približavao jer bi teško prošao kroz Jindalee sistem.

Edited March 15, 2014 by beowl

[ToniAdams]

Ja sam avionestručnjak, ali isključibilnost™ transpondera mi zaista nema smisla (pogotovo usred leta, ajde de dok je u hangaru na štelovanjima i slično, ili kad se spusti ispod određene visine, pri sletanju).

to sam bas razmisljao.

ne vidim kako bi smela da postoji uopste takva opcija.

[radisa]

Ako je išao severnim, zar ne bi trebao da se pojavi u nekim logovima vojnih radara? Za južni mi nema apsolutno nikakvog smisla. Tamo sigurno nema ostrva?

[ToniAdams]

pa naravno da bi trebao. to je nasumanutije od svega.

[radisa]

Pa jel' neko bacio pogled u te logove? Indija je ozbiljna zemlja, išlo je preko njene teritorije, jesu ih oitali uopšte?

[Indy]

to sam bas razmisljao.

ne vidim kako bi smela da postoji uopste takva opcija.

Verovatno je relikt iz nekih boljih vremena. Mislim da to treba da se preispita (kao i štošta drugo u avijaciji).

[wall]

Izgleda da ko god da je uradio ovo, namera mu je bila da pokaže da petparački holivudski blokbasteri mogu da se rekonstrušu u stvarnosti

 

 

CNN je dao neuobičajeno kvalitetnu reportažu iz B777 simulatora koja pokazuje da je penjanje na 45k stopa teoretski moguće ali praktično vodi direktno u dezintegraciju letelice.

 

 

 

 

Avion verovatno jeste povećao visinu ali ne toliko. Možda su radarska očitavanja bila neprecizna. Btw, ne verujem da je bilo nekakve borbe u kokpitu ili avionu. Piloti su ili radili zajedno ili bili pod potpunom kontrolom otmičara (kao i čitav avion). Sad, zašto bi otmičar povećavao visinu do maksimuma? Pa, jedan špekulativno-holivudski razlog bi bio taj što tako možeš brzo i efikasno da komiraš većinu putnika kako ti ne bi smetali...

 

 

Malezijski premijer je jutros potvrdio sledeće:

 

 

 

 

Ovo poslednje je potpuno neverovatno a mislim da je potvrđeno da nije lapsus. Avion je poleteo oko 00:25 po lokalnom vremenu. Ako su Amerikanci poslednji SATCOM ping uhvatili u 08:11 po lokalnom vremenu, to znači da je avion u tom trenutku bio gotovo 8 sati u vazduhu i leteo na poslednjim kapima goriva (a još uvek je bio na visini krstarenja). Gde je sve do tog trenutka mogao da stigne, to ni onaj odozgo više ne zna.

 

Navedena su i dva moguća koridora kojima je šmugnuo:

 

 

 

Onaj severni deluje prokleto nemoguće (mada, sve što je do sada potvrđeno da se dogodilo takođe spada u domen prokleto nemogućeg) dočim ovaj južni vodi u 1 veliko nigde gde se ne nalazi ništa, to jest, skoro ništa.

 

Australiji se verovatno nije približavao jer bi teško prošao kroz Jindalee sistem.

Može neko iskopati info koja je finesa B777?

Mislim da bi trebala biti jako dobra, a to bi možda i objasnilo razlog letenja na 45k ft. Ili koliko već.

Edited March 15, 2014 by wall

[Prospero]

neko je ucrtao 2 kruga od 6 i 7 sati leta (preko onog manjeg koji je uračunao samo gorivo do pekinga).

 

http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934

[Đipalo Junuz]

Može neko iskopati info koja je finesa B777?

Mislim da bi trebala biti jako dobra, a to bi možda i objasnilo razlog letenja na 45k ft. Ili koliko već.

1:20 je neki maksimum koji se spominje... Znači da bi sa 45000 stopa mogao da dobaci skoro 280 km bez motora...

[Muwan]

Ako je išao severnim, zar ne bi trebao da se pojavi u nekim logovima vojnih radara? Za južni mi nema apsolutno nikakvog smisla. Tamo sigurno nema ostrva?

 

Vraćamo se na onu priču da kada ga vojni radar vidi kako krstari na 35k stopa u civilnom koridoru kojim prolazi gomila letova, nema previše razloga da se uzbuđuje. Vojne kontrole leta ne zahtevaju identifikaciju od letelica u tim koridorima osim ukoliko ih neko ne obavesti da imaju mogućeg uljeza.

 

Pitanje je da li je nekoj civilnoj kontroli delovalo neobično to što vide primarni odraz u civilnom koridoru a nema podataka sa transpondera. Pošto ne znaju ni visinu ni veličinu letelice, možda su mislili da je u pitanju neki mali aviončić bez transpondera.

 

Pomislio sam da je transponder dizajniran tako da može da se isključi tokom leta iz prostog razloga što do pre sedam dana niko nije imao predstavu da bi tako nešto moglo da se desi tj. pade nekom na pamet (ono, presedani kreiraju buduća pravila). Trebalo mi je par minuta da se prisetim da su 9/11 otmičari isključili transpondere na avionima. Izgleda da to nije bilo dovoljno da se uradi redizajn uređaja ali posle ovoga nema šanse da to ostane tako.

[Muwan]

1:20 je neki maksimum koji se spominje... Znači da bi sa 45000 stopa mogao da dobaci skoro 280 km bez motora...

 

Malezijski izveštaj kaže da se kratko zadržao na 45k, zatim spustio na 28k i na kraju stabilizovao na 35k.ž

 

 

Bloomberg ima solidnu rekapitulaciju ovog najnovijeg razvoja događaja.

 

Nije loš ni CNN.

 

NYT o podacima sa satelita.

Edited March 15, 2014 by beowl

[wall]

1:20 je neki maksimum koji se spominje... Znači da bi sa 45000 stopa mogao da dobaci skoro 280 km bez motora...

I da im je svaki km doleta bio važan, čim su toliko silovali visinu.

Ili je prosto pilot prs'o pa odlučio da se provoza za sve pare i zaroni u sred okeana.