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noskich

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Noskich, mozes li za neupucene, da kazes nesto o razlozima zasto su nekretnine u Australiji toliko skupe?

Ako je vec bilo negde pisano, ok, samo reci gde da trazim :).

 

Vise razloga. Jedan koji se jako cesto navodi su kineski kupci bizmismeni koji se osiguravaju za slucaj da dodju na noz partije. Salju decu na studije koja uzimaju papire, kupuju milionske kuce i stanove i onda to dize cenu. Drugi razlog su veliki troskovi izgradnje, sve je skupo, zemljiste, materijal, radna snaga, dazbine prema drzavi. Treci razlog je priliv imigracije koji dize traznju, ovo je sad manje nego sto je bilo. Cetvrti razlog je sto svaka shusha ovde cim moze dize kredit za stan ili kucu, a ko ima kakvog viska novca ulaze prvenstveno u nekretnine kao investiciju. Peti je sto Australija nije bila u recesiji vec dugo vremena (zaobisla je 2008 GFC) jasuci na talasima visoke cene commodities koje je Kina kupovala bez pitanja tokom svog rasta od 8-10% godisnje. 

 

Sada je situacija malo drugacija. Kina usporava, ima dosta vise izgradnje nego pre jer to nerealna cena opravdava (za sada), smanjuje se priliv imigracije jer su imigraciona pravila poostrena, a recesija kuca na vrata zbog Kine i glupavih poteza vlada. Jedino sto je i dalje na snazi je faktor 4 jer su kamate na kredite najnize u poslednjih nekoliko decenija, mada clearance rate (procenat nekretnina koje se prodaju brzo nakon oglasavanja) se u poslednje vreme svuda znacajno smanjuje tako da cemo videti da li ce investitori biti toliko srcani po pitanju nekretnina kao sto su bili.

Edited by noskich
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Kao sto je Sloba svojevremeno proglasio pobedu na Kosovu 1999, tako to moze da uradi Washington DC danas:

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com.au/2016/01/defeat-is-victory.html

 

Freedom is indeed slavery: to enjoy their “freedom,” Americans spend most of their lives working off debt, be it a mortgage, medical debt incurred due to an illness, or student loans. Alternatively, they can also enjoy it by rotting in jail. They also work longer hours with less time off and worse benefits than in any other developed country, and their wages haven't increased in two generations.
 
Likewise, it is possible, though a bit awkward, to claim that slavery is freedom—because, you see, once you have discharged your duties as a slave, can go home and read whatever crazy nonsense you want on some blog or other. This is of course silly; you can stuff your head with whatever “knowledge” you like, but if you try acting on it you will quickly discover that you aren't allowed to. “Back in line, slave!” You can also take the opposite tack and claim that freedom is for layabouts while we the productive people have to rush from one scheduled activity to another, and herd our children around in the same manner, avoiding “unstructured time” like a plague, and that this is not at all like slavery. Not at all. Not even close. Nobody tells me what to do! (Looks down at smartphone to see what's next on today's to-do list).
 

...there is a limit to how much you can know, but there is no limit at all to how much you don't know but think you do!

Edited by noskich
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Balon u Kanadi poceo da pusta vazduh: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/poll+finds+half+respondents+within+month+being+unable+bills/11722397/story.html

 

Poll finds half of respondents within $200 a month of being unable to pay bills

 

130 eura manjka ih dovodi do bankrotstva. Ispade Srbija bolja od Kanade, tamo se skrpis za 130 eura, u Kanadi nema batice, ostave te na ledini da se mrznes. 

 

Spremte se spremte. 

Edited by noskich
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Mayyasi, Alex, “The Basic Income Guarantee
 
This blog uses Harper Lee’s experience writing To Kill a Mockingbird as an example to support the basic income guarantee. Alex Mayyasi writes, “In the 1950s, Nelle Harper Lee was a single woman living in New York City. … he worked as an airline clerk and wrote in her free time. She had written several long stories, but achieved no success of note. One Christmas in the late fifties, a generous friend gave her a year’s wages as a gift with the note, ‘You have one year off from your job to write whatever you please. Merry Christmas.’ A year later, Lee had produced a draft of To Kill a Mockingbird. Published two years later, it won the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, sold 30 million copies, and won such polls as ‘Best novel of the century.’”

Mayyasi compares Lee’s gift to a one-year basic income guarantee, reviews some of the history of the idea, and concludes, “The fear is that a basic income could disrupt the workings of the invisible hand, but especially in a world of plenty, it seems just as feasible to argue that it could remove the material barriers keeping people from achieving a higher potential. It’s worth asking, what would happen if we offered everyone the same gift that resulted in Nelle Harper Lee writing one of the greatest books ever written?”

Mayyasi, Alex, “The Basic Income Guarantee,” Priceonomics: the Price Guide for Everything, Aug 15, 2013

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:lolol: Here is a thought experiment that illustrates this point. Suppose we solve every technical problem on Earth and go on and colonize space, found space colonies and take over the solar system, and the galaxy, and other galaxies, and the entire universe (which may not be infinite, which would give us another cause for eventual collapse, but let’s ignore that for the moment). As everyone knows, space empires aren’t cheap, and to get our space empire started we borrow some money, at an introductory low rate of interest (after somehow convincing the lenders that building a space empire is a low-risk proposition). Suppose we expand this empire at close to the speed of light (since it requires infinite  energy to accelerate a finite mass to the speed of light). A space empire expanding even at the speed of light in all three dimensions will only grow as t3 (time cubed). (Let’s ignore the fact that initially, while taking over the solar system and the Milky Way galaxy, which are both flat, our empire will only be able to expand in two dimensions.) Meanwhile, our empire’s debt will grow as Dt (debt raised to the power of time). And here is the problem: it is a mathematical certainty that as time passes (t increases), debt grows faster than empire for any initial amount of debt. Exponential growth outpaces any physical process

 

Dt> t3  Suppose the empire’s engineers struggle mightily with this problem and, after taking on even more debt to finance research and development, eventually invent “warp speed,” which flouts the laws of physics and allows our space empire to expand faster than the speed of light. But to their surprise, debt just keeps increasing. Eventually they discover the answer: even at “warp-10,” which is ten times the speed of light, debt is still increasing faster than the empire: Dt> (10t)3 One brilliant engineer (who happens to be a fan of the band Spinal Tap) hits on a brilliant idea and invents “warp-11.” Everyone is hopeful that this invention will give the imperial growth rate “that extra push over the cliff” and allow it to catch up with its ballooning debt. But this too is to no avail, because... Dt> (11t)3 Perplexed, the engineers wander back to their drawing boards. Then one remembers a film he saw once —  The Adventures of Buckaroo Banzai Across the 8th Dimension —  and is struck by a brilliant thought: what if they were to actually invent the circuitry that allowed Buckaroo to penetrate solid matter and travel across eight dimensions instead of just three? Then their space empire could expand across eight dimensions at the same time! They get to work, and quickly cobble together the Oscillation Overthruster (Buckaroo’s fully automatic 12-volt cigarette lighter socket plug-in unit, not Dr. Lizardo’s bulky foot-operated floor-mounted kludge). A bit more effort is required to compensate for strange hyper-relativistic effects when using the Overthruster at “warp-11” (Buckaroo’s was only tested at just over Mach-1) but once they get the hang of it their space empire starts expanding across eight dimensions at eleven times the speed of light, quickly conquering and enslaving the Red Lectroids of Planet 10, along with billions and billions of others. Alas, it soon turns out that even this rate of growth is nowhere near fast enough to keep up with their debts, because... Dt> (11t)8 After some more fruitless exploration, the engineers decide to overcome their innate distrust of mathematicians and invite one to join the team, hoping he might be able to explain why this keeps happening to them. The mathematician asks for cocktails to be brought in and, once he sees that the engineers are sufficiently inebriated to take the edge off the bad news, he grabs a cocktail napkin and furiously scribbles out a proof (here omitted for clarity). His proof attempts to demonstrate that exponentially expanding debt will eventually outpace the rate of growth of anything finite that grows at any finite speed across any finite number of dimensions. He then goes on to say that “things get much more interesting once we move into the infinite domain,” and, even more enigmatically, “we can always renormalize it later.”

 

Shocked, they dismiss the mathematician and, grasping at straws, hire a shaman. The shaman listens to their problem and tells them to wait until sundown for an explanation. Then he asks them to shut off electricity everywhere and to join him outside in the middle of the parking lot and form a circle around him. Once their eyes adjust to the darkness, he points to the sky and says: “Look at the darkness between the stars. See it? There is nothing there. Now look at the stars. That is all there is.” Since the engineers all happen to know that what they can see is limited by the age of the universe and the speed of light, not the size of the universe, which, for all they know, could very well be infinite, they dismiss the shaman, turn the lights back on, drink some more, then nurse their hangovers. One of them (a bit of a class clown) writes “It’s Debt to the Power of Time, Stupid!” on a placard and pins it up on a wall next to their cubicle farm. But then another one, a fan of The Time Machine, the 1895 novella by H. G. Wells, hits on yet another brilliant idea. What if they invent a time machine, and go back in time to settle the empire’s debts? With that, the math would finally work in their favor, because they could go back in time and pay each loan off with just the principal. Being short of cash, they try taking out another large loan to finance the development of the time machine, but their creditors balk, declaring the project “too risky.”

 

And so the empire defaulted on its debts. Shortly thereafter, it turned out that it was no longer able to secure the financing it needed to continue interplanetary oxygen shipments, and they all died of asphyxiation. Conclusion: borrowing at interest is fine provided you have plans for a time machine and enough cash on hand to actually build one, go back in time and pay off the loan with just the principal; it is not recommended otherwise.

Edited by noskich
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