Peti oktobar na bliskom istoku i arapskom svetu

[dillinger]

To je taj napredak koji smo i mi ovde iskusili nakon 1990. Hosni bi te vračeve poslao na višegodišnje lađenje, a danas..

Ex-militant to run bloodied Luxor tourist region(Reuters) - A member of the movement whose gunmen killed 58 foreigners at a temple in Luxor in1997 was sworn in by Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi on Monday as governor of the vital tourist region.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/17/us-egypt-mursi-islamist-idUSBRE95G0IP20130617

[Peter Fan]

Pomalo preterujete, nije opozicija zavisna od američke pomoći i podrške, naročito grupe koje nisu pod kontrolom FSA.KSA, Kuvajt, Katar i Turska su voljni i sposobni da ih naoružaju i održavaju u životu sve ovo vreme.

Mogu mozda odrzavati u zivotu, ali ne mogu prevagnuti da bi FSA et al dobili rat. Jedno je slati Zolje i Ose, a drugo je postaviti diviziona PA sistema na granice Sirije. Pride je politicka podrska Amerike jednako vazna kao i oruzana, a ta podrska je cijelo vrijeme tu i Amerika ima vodecu ulogu u njoj.

Problem sa Amerikom, a naročito Izraelom je što im je Iran glavna meta i spremni su na sve i tolerisaće svakoga samo da se porazi Iran. A na delu je sve otvoreniji šiitsko-sunitski rat, koji nije isprovociran sa šiitske strane (Hizbali nije smetala vera Hamasovaca, niti Asadu lojalni suniti itd..)* Sukob na toj liniji se već dugo odvija u Iraku , a sa eventualnim dovršetkom posla u Siriji, preti da eskalira i u nešto više.Biće zanimljivo pratiti kako će se tada Vašington postaviti, s obzirom da je u Bagdadu jedina šiitska vlast koju su podržavali.

Ovoga se vrijedi podsjetiti: nas stari poznanik Wesley Clark. Iako je donekle self-serving, a politicke okolnosti su izmijenjene otkad je ovo receno, ja vjerujem da je Obamina administracija i odredjene strukture u Pentagonu zadrzala kurs koji je zacratao W, tata i njihovi im savjetnici.http://youtu.be/Ha1rEhovONU

[Zaz_pi]

Oh , pa nisi upoznat sa PNAC-Project for the New American Century. Oni i dalje dominiraju ne samo u GOP-neokonzervativci vec imaju istomisljenika i u DP, vrlo uticajnih. Mogao bih reci da je slucaj Bengazi povezan sa time a zatim i nagli pad mnogih nekonova poput Petreusa i Penete. Oni su bili direktori CIA u periodu 2009-2012. Neokon, Cejni/Ramsfeld kadrovi. Zato sam pomenuo aferu Iran-Conta i Regana. Ne mora predsednik da upucen u sve. U stvari, cesto bude obrnuto ;) Ali je pitanje: zasto je Obama postavljao njih na tako vazne funkcije? Ili je mozda neko, poput Hilari, uticao da se oni postave.

[Bane5]

sve je jasno, zavera stoji iza svega.interes gura zaveru.ponekad se tu umesa i nafta.

[Budja]

sve je jasno, zavera stoji iza svega.interes gura zaveru.ponekad se tu umesa i nafta.

Eto, sad nastoje da sruse i Tursku i Brazil zato sto rastu.Kad ih pitam a sto onda ruse Cile (studentske demonstracije u zemlji desnicarskog predsednika ewvo trecu godinu za redom), onda sledi tajac. Egipat je takodje problem.

[Zaz_pi]

Lepo receno. A, sta kada ruse Putina? Samo neka bude balansirano, znas Budjo.

[Zaz_pi]

Marko, boldovano je besramna propaganda.Propaganda je pomenuti Iran i Hezbolah, a ne pomenuti SA i Katar.Cudi me da zagovaras takav jednostrani diskurs.

Bas mora da se pomene SA i Katar?

[Peter Fan]

sve je jasno, zavera stoji iza svega.interes gura zaveru.ponekad se tu umesa i nafta.

Nije zavjera, vec deklarisana strategija koja ima svoju glavu i rep.A ako put za Teheran prolazi kroz Damask, onda je regime change samo pitanje vremena i metoda, odnosno ko ce biti izvodjac radova i da li podrska staje na obezbjedjivanju politicke i medijske pozadine, small arms deliveries, drone strikes, ili pak boots on the ground.Ali malo je glupo reci da Amerika tek sada ulece u igru ili da ista nema namjeru ostvariti svoje interese, kolateranoj steti unatoc.

[Bane5]

Nije zavjera, vec deklarisana strategija koja ima svoju glavu i rep.A ako put za Teheran prolazi kroz Damask, onda je regime change samo pitanje vremena i metoda, odnosno ko ce biti izvodjac radova i da li podrska staje na obezbjedjivanju politicke i medijske pozadine, small arms deliveries, drone strikes, ili pak boots on the ground.Ali malo je glupo reci da Amerika tek sada ulece u igru ili da ista nema namjeru ostvariti svoje interese, kolateranoj steti unatoc.

hajde malo detaljnije.kako izgleda ta strategija na primeru sirije.nemoj uopstenim floskulama, daj detalje, ko, kada, gde, koliko, na koji nacin?

[Prospero]

Freedom fighters? Cannibals? The truth about Syria’s rebelsThe US wants to send them arms, Vladimir Putin says they’re cannibals – but what do we really know about the opposition movement fighting to topple Assad? Syria expert Aron Lund profiles some of the most powerful factionsBattlefield alliances: The major groupsThe Syrian Islamic Front (SIF):Leader Abu Abdullah al-Hamawi (Ahrar al-Sham)Affiliated fighters Group’s own figures claimed about 25,000 in Dec 2012A hardline Salafist alliance created in December 2012, which receives funding from conservative clerics in the Gulf. The SIF has distanced itself from the Western-backed FSA, but it is also wary of Jabhat al-Nusra’s al-Qa’ida connection. Unlike the SILF and the FSA, the SIF has demonstrated some degree of internal cohesion and significant ideological homogeneity. It is dominated by Ahrar al-Sham, but the front also includes the Haqq Brigade (Homs), the Haqq Battalions (northern Hama), the Ansar al-Sham Battalions (northern Latakia), and the Tawhid Army (Deir al-Zor). It is demanding an Islamic state with sharia law.AFFILIATES: Islamic Ahrar al-Sham Movement The Free Syrian Army:Leader Brig Gen Salim IdrissAffiliated fighters Many different claims. Most recently, in June 2013, Idriss claimed he is the leader of 80,000 fightersThe FSA name has been used by several overlapping rebel networks since mid-2011. This version, which is also often referred to as the Supreme Military Council, was created in December 2012 after pressure from Western and Gulf Arab nations, which seek to make it the military wing of Syria’s civilian exile group, the National Coalition. Foreign funding has drawn numerous rebel commanders to the FSA, including all the SILF heavyweights. But these commanders retain operational control over their own forces, and Idriss therefore serves more as a spokesperson than a military leader. Idriss steers a secular-nationalist line, while many of the factions that make up his army have opted for some form of Islamic rule.AFFILIATES Syria Martyrs Brigades, Farouq Battalions, Tawhid Brigade, Suqour al-Sham Brigades and Islam Brigade The Syrian Islamic Liberation Front (SILF)Leader Ahmed Eissa al-Sheikh (Suqour al-Sham)Secretary General Zahran Alloush (Islam Brigade)Affiliated fighters Spokesperson says 35,000-40,000 June 2013The SILF is a very loose Islamist alliance created in September 2012, around a bare-bones ideological plank demanding more Islam and less Assad. It now includes about 20 armed movements, among them powerful factions like Farouq and Tawhid. The SILF members joined the new version of the FSA at its inception in December 2012, and now make up the bulk of its fighting force. A representative of the SILF describes it as ”the largest of the revolutionary coalitions”.AFFILIATES Farouq Battalions, Tawhid Brigade, Suqour al-Sham Brigades and Islam Brigade MILITANT FACTIONSFarouq BattalionsLeader Osama JuneidiNumbers Approximately 14,000 now, according to their spokesperson.Area National, but associated with Homs also has strong presence on Syrian-Turkish borderAffiliation SILF, FSAThe Farouq Battalions is a large, Islamist-leaning group which has its roots in the earliest Free Syrian Army formations created in Homs province in summer and autumn of 2011. It rose to prominence when leading the failed February 2012 defense of the Baba Amr neighborhood in the city. Since then the original group has expanded tremendously and it now runs affiliates across the country. A well-funded northern wing, Farouq al-Shamal, controls important border crossings and is rumored to enjoy Turkish patronage. Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic state of IraqLeader Abu Mohammed al-Golani (Jabhat al-Nusra); Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (Islamic state)Number: a report this year by the Quilliam Foundation said Jabhat al-nusra had 5,000 fighters, but this is impossible to verifyArea Syria - IraqAffiliation al-Qa’idaIn mid-2011, the al-Qa’ida-affiliated Islamic State of Iraq sent a group to Syria to create a jihadi movement. In January 2012, it emerged as Jabhat al-Nusra with a string of suicide bombings. Declared a terrorist group by the US since December 2012, Jabhat al-Nusra has co-operated with other rebels on the ground but shunned alliances. In April, Baghdadi declared a merger of the Iraqi group with Jabhat al-Nusra under the name Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham. This was opposed by Nusra’s leader, but Baghdadi persisted, backed by many foreign jihadis. Both groups are in Syria, the dispute unresolved. Islamic Ahrar al-Sham MovementLeader Abu Abdullah al-HamawiArea Syria (It is strongest in northern Syria, in Idlib, Hama and Aleppo, but has affiliates all over the country.)Numbers Several thousand at least, maybe as many as 10,000. SIF (the alliance of which they make up around 75 per cent of forces) circulated an informal claim that it had 25,000 fighters back in December.Affiliation SIFAhrar al-Sham is likely to be Syria’s largest salafi faction. It claims to run about a hundred local armed groups, as well as offices for humanitarian aid and sharia law. It was created in the Idlib-Hama region in early summer 2011. In December 2012 it spearheaded the creation of the SIF alliance, which drew like-minded Islamist groups into its orbit. In spring 2013, several SIF member factions merged into Ahrar al-Sham, greatly adding to its numbers and influence. It seeks an Islamic state based on sharia law. Syria Martyrs’ BrigadesLeader Jamaal MaaroufNumbers High thousands? Even 10,000? Maarouf claimed in an interview in December 2012 to have more than 18,000 fighters, but this is disputed.Area Jabal al-Zawiya, IdlibAffiliation FSAOriginally named the Jabal al-Zawiya Martyrs’ Brigade, a name change was engineered to match Jamal Maarouf’s growing ambitions in mid-2012. The group remains concentrated in the rugged, rural Jabal al-Zawiya region of Idlib, and has spawned only a few branches elsewhere. Unlike his local Islamist rival, Suqour al-Sham’s Ahmed Eissa al-Sheikh, Maarouf seems to have no particular ideology, but he is nevertheless said to enjoy Saudi funding. YPG – Popular Protection UnitsSpokesperson Khebat IbrahimNumbers Some thousandsArea Kurdish-populated areas, northern and north-eastern Syria, Aleppo.Affilation Supreme Kurdish Committee, PKKThe YPG is the dominant Kurdish armed group, which took over large sections of northern Syria in August last year. It is not-so-secretly loyal to the PKK, which has by now forcibly co-opted most other Kurdish groups in Syria. The YPG has deep misgivings about the Arab opposition mainstream, which it considers to be Islamist and under Turkish influence, and it has steered a middle way between the regime and the rebels. True to the PKK’s Marxist tradition, the YPG makes a point of training female fighters. The YPG does not seek independence for Syria’s Kurds, but does argue for a form of self-governance within Syria. Islam BrigadeLeader Zahran AlloushNumbers ThousandsArea Mainly DamascusAffiliation SILF, FSAThe Islam Brigade was set up by the Alloush family from Douma, east of Damascus. The elderly patriarch Mohammed Alloush, a religious scholar, lives in Saudi Arabia. His son Zahran, a salafi activist jailed by the government in 2009, founded the group when he was released from prison in mid-2011. It rose to prominence after bombing the National Security Office in Damascus in July 2012, which killed several of Assad’s leading military officials. Considers itself “the biggest faction in the Damascus region” and claims to have 64 sub-battalions, but it refuses to give an estimated number of fighters. Tawhid BrigadeGeneral leader Abdelaziz SalamaMilitary commander Abdulqader SalehNumbers Spokesperson claims ”around 11,000”Area Aleppo, with smaller groups around the countryAffiliation SILF, FSAThe Tawhid Brigade was created in July 2012 through the merger of a disparate collection of militias from the Sunni Arab countryside surrounding Aleppo. Soon thereafter, the group led the charge into the city itself, but the rebels became bogged down during the autumn of 2012 after some initial victories. The Tawhid Brigade remains the dominant force in the Aleppo region, although it also has small affiliates elsewhere. It demands some form of Islamic governance, but says that religious minorities should be treated as equal citizens. Suqour al-Sham BrigadesLeader Ahmed Eissa al-SheikhNumbers Several thousand, possibly climbing towards 10,000Area Jabal al-Zawiya, IdlibAffiliation SILF, FSAThe foundations of the Suqour al-Sham, one of Syria’s best-known Islamist groups, were laid in the summer of 2011 in the town of Sarjeh in Idlib’s Jabal al-Zawiya region. It has now grown considerably and some of its sub-units, such as the Dawoud Brigade, have been pushing south into Hama province alongside more radical Islamist groups. Suqour al-Sham helped create the SILF alliance, with Ahmed Eissa al-Sheikh serving as its leader since the start.

[Lord Protector]

Ролан Дима: Британци су рат у Сирији планирали две године пре првих немирауторак, 18. јун 2013.Бивши француски министар спољних послова, Ролан Дима, који је на тој функцији био у периоду 1988-1993, дао је интервју француској ТВ мрежи LCP у којем је открио да је Велика Британија планирала рат у Сирији још две године прије него су избили први немири у тој земљи почетком 2011. у склопу тзв. „арапског пролећа“.Ово је још један у низу доказа да је завера против Сирије већ дуго била у припреми, а да су легитимни антивладини протести опозиције само послужили као полуга преко које је била организована оружана побуна.„Рећи ћу вам нешто. Био сам у Енглеској две године пре него што су избили сукоби у Сирији. Састао сам се с највишим британским функционерима који су ми признали да припремају нешто у Сирији. Овај план је направљен у Британији, а не у САД-у. Британија је организовала инвазију побуњеника у Сирији. Чак су ме питали, мада тада више нисам био министар, да ли бих желео учествујем у том процесу“, открио је Дима.На питање - шта је био мотив за такве планове против Сирије - Дима је одговорио: „Операција је била помно испланирана. Циљ је био јако једноставан - срушити сиријску владу јер је, то је јако важно да се схвати, сиријски режим тај који води антиизраелски курс“.Овоме је екс-шеф француске дипломатије још придодао: „Бивши израелски премијер ми је то лично појаснио: настојаћемо да имамо добре односе са суседима, али ћемо оне који се не слажу с нама уништити. То је таква политика, такав поглед на историју. Треба бити упознат са тим стварима“.

[SleeperSleep]

kako god okrenes, islamisti. asad, opozicija... sta god da bude, nije dobro za siriju. :(edit: komentar na clanak iz independenta.

Edited June 18, 2013 by ikar

[Bane5]

ja bi licno oduzeo 10% od ukupnog broja koji cirkulise u proceni autora independenta, ali je to uglavnom to.zanimljiva je transformacija pojedinih grupa, naime, ceo farouq je nastao izvorno u homsu i cinili su ga dezerteri iz bivse sirisjke vojske, ali formiranjem svojih jedinica (oni ih nazivaju bataljonima) oni iz stanja sekularnih vonika prihvataju ideologiju vodja/komandanata/ideologa koji ih je skupio i organizovao. naravno, tu se moze postaviti pitanje "lazne sekularnosti" u siriji koja se prikrivala jakom centralistickom vlascu. ujedno, farouq je za sada upamcen i po tome sto su njegove jedinice (bilo je tu i drugih ali ovih najvise) vodile dve, medijski najeksponiranije, bitke u ovom ratu - za bab amr i za qusayr i obe su zavrsene neslavno po pobunjenike.posebno treba naglasiti ucesce kurda koji u jednoj pokrajini (al-hasakah) odrzavaju mir (ali su uglavnom na distanci) sa asadovim snagama, u severnom delu pokrajine alep ratuju protiv pobunjenika (nalaze se na jednom bitnom koridoru), a u samom alepu u nekim od njihovih cetvrti (sheikh maksoud npr.) ratuju zajedno sa pobunjenicima protiv asadovoh snaga.takodje, u vise navrata su belezeni sukobi medju samim pobunjenickim jedinicama. gotovo uvek su sa jedne strane bili nusra & co. a sa druge neka od ostalih grupa.

[Peter Fan]

hajde malo detaljnije.kako izgleda ta strategija na primeru sirije.nemoj uopstenim floskulama, daj detalje, ko, kada, gde, koliko, na koji nacin?

Koje detalje? Ko je napisao naredbu o razmjestanju 4,500 marinac u Jordanu, ili ko je aminovao nabavku streljackog naoruzanja iz Hrvatske za pobunjenike? Ja mislim da je te eskalacija (politicka i medijska pozadina - small arms deliveries - drone strikes - boots on the ground) americkog mijesanja ocigledna i da je ne treba posebno elaborisati, ali evo samo dva friska navoda:But U.S. officials said that the determination to send weapons had been made weeks ago and that the chemical weapons finding provided fresh justification to act.The CIA is preparing to deliver arms to rebel groups in Syria through clandestine bases in Turkey and Jordan that were expanded over the past year in an effort to establish reliable supply routes into the country for nonlethal material, U.S. officials said.A sto se tice cijele americke strategije za taj region, mislim da ju je Clark fino opisao (uz ogradu da mi jasan konktekst u kom je to naveo).Sklon sam vjerovati da je ta strategija i dalje na snazi.

[Bane5]

OK, posiljka iz hrvatske stize kada? Koji mesec vec traje rat pre te posiljke?Kada stize naredba o razmestanju marinaca u Jordanu? Koji mesec od pocetka rata?Batali "friske navode".Daj nesto iz 2011. ko je isao tamo u ime "administracije" da pobuni narod i kako su to uradili?Scenario Libije samo bez nafte?... Cena hleba i benzina, studiranje i sl.Ako ti je Clarck kamen temeljac onda OK. Reci to odmah i tacka.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Bane5