Peti oktobar na bliskom istoku i arapskom svetu

[Anduril]

Ja bih svakao licno voleo da budem naoruzan kao nindza kornjaca da sam kojim (nesrecnim) slucajem tamo, ali ne vidim kako bi naoruzavanje pomoglo detetu kao sto je ovo. Nije svako u stanju da koristi oruzje (iz raznih razloga, od godina, fizickih problema, pa do moralnih/religioznih obzira).

Mozda detetu ne bi ali bi ljudi oko njega, porodica, ljudi u kvartu iteko mogli uraditi nesto a ne da gledaju kako ubijaju dete na sred ulice kao pokaznu vezbu. A upravo polazim od sebe da sam u toj situaciji i da mi neko brata ili cak komsiju tako izvede.A problem je upravo u tome sto Bane govori - normalni su zapravo uvek u vecini na pocetku, ovo su psihopate ali ako se psihopate vremenom sistematski naoruzavaju i podrzavaju oni mogu da vladaju vecinom i rade sta hoce. Tako je bilo u Avganistanu, tako je bilo i na Kosovu gde nije podrzan oruzjem Rugova nego opskurne maksisticke grupice a tako je i ovde.Sto je najtuznije, taj olos iz SAD/Francuske ili Katara/SA uzima pare opet normalnih u svojim drzavama koji tesko da bi ikad podrzali ovakve ludake.

stvar je u sledecem i to se pominjalo ovde, krovna pobunjenicka snaga FSA nema organizovanu mrezu snabdevanja oruzjem i kuburi sa istim. nedostaje im svega - novca, politicke zaledjine, jedinstvene komande, obuke i sl.za to vreme radikalne milicije imaju jaku finsnsijsku podrsku, imaju stalan priliv naoruzanja (svercovanog), imaju mogucnost da regrutuju borce i obucavaju ih.na samom pocetku sukoba odnos snaga FSA i radiklanih milicija (najpre jabhat al nusre) je bio drasticno u korist FSA, ali se vremenom stvar pocela menjati i zbog gore navedenog radikalne snage su ojacale.OK, FSA se nije raspala i sustinski ono sto se moze podvesti pod nju + deo umerenih islamista i dalje su dobra vecina u pobunjenickim redovima, ali se upravo tu postavlja pitanje ovoga o cemu pise Anduril, da li im dati oruzije (uglavnom siguran priliv pesadijskog naoruzanja i opreme) jer bi to ujedno znacilo i neku vrstu brane radikalnim milicijama....

Kad je poceo sukob napisao sam zasto treba naoruzati "normalne" u ovakvoj situacija raspada sistema i kako ih razlikovati od ekstremista. Putem humanitarnih organizacija za doniranje oruzja pod transparentnom kontrolom i jasnim uslovima. Mozda posle toliko mrtvih, a ovo je tek pocetak gradjanskog rata psihopata u kojem ce vremenom i normalna vecina postati psihopatska, postane jasno zasto obicni ljudi koji brane svoje domove i bliznje moraju biti naoruzani odmah na pocetku a ne da se na njih zaboravi. Edited June 10, 2013 by Anduril

[Prospero]

u međuvremenu:

Syrian Forces Push Into Rebel Strongholds By SAM DAGHERReuters Free Syrian Army fighters rest in Aleppo's Karm al-Jabal district on Saturday.HOMS, Syria—Forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad are pressing ahead with a brutal offensive through the heart of rebellious Syrian territory, with a shrill sectarian tone to the fighting, according to participants on both sides of the battle.After capturing the rebel stronghold of Qusayr last week with help from the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah, Mr. Assad's forces and Hezbollah fighters have expanded the fighting to the northern city of Aleppo, where rebels have retained a foothold for over a year.Some parts of the city and the countryside that were relatively calm in recent months saw renewed fighting over the past few days, while senior Syrian security officials have spoken of reinforcements being sent to Aleppo for an imminent major offensive.Meantime, explosions and gunfire also reverberated through Homs, where rebels have fortified positions in the city's old quarter as well as other parts of the city. On Monday several columns of smoke were seen rising from rebel-held areas in the city, with residents and opposition activists saying that clashes and bombardments have intensified since Sunday.The regime's push comes after months of operations across Homs province that have received less attention than the battle for Qusayr but could prove to be even more decisive in shaping the conflict. As in Qusayr, fighting across the province has taken on dark sectarian hues.For more than a year, regime forces and their allies have pushed Sunni Muslim residents out of these areas using brutal tactics, while the increasingly desperate rebels have adopted many of the same methods, such as indiscriminately shelling civilian areas that support the regime, they had long decried the regime for using. In some places, rebels have resorted to hiding among civilian populations in order to use them as shields against regime shelling, according to even some activists opposed to the regime."Guns and violence have extinguished any chance for reconciliation," lamented a Homs-based community leader opposed to Mr. Assad, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of being targeted by both sides of the conflict.Hafez al-Mohammed, a 25-year-old cabdriver, says he was kidnapped by Sunni rebels after taking a ride into the Al-Waer neighborhood in late May. He says he was tortured and held captive for seven hours. His cousin Haidar says Mr. al-Mohammed was only released after Alawites threatened to retaliate by kidnapping Sunni women living in an Alawite-dominated neighborhood. "How can we ever live with them?" says Haidar referring to Sunnis.A tour of areas from the city of Homs to many of the villages that dot the province around it, shows that the regime has cleared—cleansed is the word often used—wide swaths of the area of the Sunni Muslims, who dominate the opposition. Meantime, those Sunni residents remaining have been hemmed into neighborhoods locked down by checkpoints, harsh security procedures and even walls.Forces loyal to President Assad and Hezbollah members boasted of how rebels and their families escaping the town of Qusayr were hunted down in surrounding farm lands and a local village where they sought refuge. Nobody was in a position to provide a precise figure, but one Hezbollah commander said about 150 rebels were killed in the last two days of the Qusayr offensive, which was declared over Wednesday.A Syrian official told the government news agency over the weekend that "a huge number of terrorists" were killed Saturday in an attack on the village of Bweyda, to where about 1,000 opposition fighters, activists and some family members had fled from Qusayr, according to activists.Before the attack, a member of the Syrian security forces identifying himself as Abu Mohammed, who was commanding a checkpoint in the hamlet of Dmaena adjacent to Bweyda, vowed that no mercy would be shown. "We are going to ravage them," he said.Qusayr once boasted a population of 60,000 Sunni Muslims and Christians. That number had dwindled to about 15,000 rebels and civilians at the start of the regime offensive in May, according to Unicef, a United Nations relief organization that continues to work in the area and opposition activists.Now the only people roaming the scarred streets of Qusayr are Hezbollah fighters, Syrian forces, looters and die-hard loyalists going there to celebrate the regime's victory.On Sunday, Homs Governor Ahmed Mounir Mohammed, a Sunni, urged residents to return to rebuild their town. Yet few may be ready to heed this call, underscoring how gaining ground is only part of the challenge the regime faces in its attempts to reassert authority over the country.Since March 2012, the regime has reclaimed several neighborhoods once under the control of rebels in Homs, the provincial capital. First to fall was Baba Amr after a devastating 44-day siege that culminated with a triumphant visit by Mr. Assad. Some residents ventured back, but rebels tried to recapture the neighborhood this past March. The rebel foray was foiled, but it sent those who had returned fleeing again. Virtually none have returned.Over the past week, government forces could be seen directing the construction of a new wall around Baba Amr and demolition of several homes belonging to rebel leaders and activists from the neighborhood.In one section of the neighborhood, a pair of schools that had been spared during the government's offensive last year sustained significant damage in clashes between rebels and Syrian forces this year, according to residents and a security force officer patrolling the area. Inside the bullet-riddled Fahed al-Ahmed high school, classrooms were littered with broken glass, debris and overturned desks. One white board bore testimony to a civics class held on March 7.About 3,000 of the 25,000 people that once lived in this predominantly Sunni neighborhood have come back, according to a local elder. This rate of return, however, is better than Sunni neighborhoods adjacent to areas east and south of Homs that are dominated by Alawites, the Shiite-linked minority group to which Mr. Assad belongs.Asheera, Bayada, Deir Baalba and Karm el-Zeitoun are among more than half a dozen predominantly Sunni neighborhoods on this side of the city that have been cleared of rebels over the past year. Not a single house or apartment is inhabited. All are damaged by the fighting and looted. Many appear to have been intentionally set on fire.Deserted streets and alleyways are littered with personal belongings of former inhabitants like baby strollers, children shoes, mattresses, clothing and broken china.Army checkpoints dot some of the main thoroughfares leading to these neighborhoods, while local Alawite paramilitary groups are in charge of securing the interior. On Tuesday, young men in military fatigues were seen pillaging what remained of homes and shops in Karm el-Zeitoun, an area taken over by regime forces in March of last year. In one apartment building, the men used a sledgehammer to dismantle marble kitchen sinks. Down one alleyway, a pickup truck was laden with plastic ware collected from abandoned homes.Shaaban Qanes, who heads a local pro-government group, said the looters were all destitute men who had been driven out by Sunni rebels earlier this year from their Alawite village near the rebel-stronghold of Talbisah, north of Homs city.Such sectarian vengeance and retribution appears to be the order of the day in Homs province, including the capital city of Homs. Three to four thousand rebels have barricaded themselves in old Homs and neighborhoods to the north and west along with about 2,500 civilians. Syrian forces have sealed off these areas since June of last year and gunmen have prohibited civilians from leaving, according to people who last visited the area.Sand berms, trash dumpsters and the rusting carcasses of destroyed buses could be seen blocking some roads leading to these neighborhoods which are no go zones because of sniper fire from both sides.Except in a handful of well-to-do neighborhoods under regime control, most Sunnis remaining in the city have moved into Al-Waer, a sprawling neighborhood of many unfinished high rise apartment blocks on the northwest side across from one of the country's main oil refineries. There are 400,000 people living Al-Waer, almost all Sunni, Mudhar Sebaie, a local worker for Unicef, said. About 250,000 of those have been displaced from other parts of the city, Mr. Sabaie added.Authorities say Al-Waer is also home to about a thousand rebels. Army checkpoints ring the neighborhood, and all those entering or leaving are subjected to prolonged searches. It is a no-go area for Alawites.

[Muwan]

Ne znam ko je ovaj lik, doima se da je intimno na strani FSA, u svakom slučaju evo šta kaže:Rami Jarrah ‏@AlexanderPageSY 7m CONFIRMED: French-Saudi arming effort now taking place along Turkish-Syrian border this has led to temporary shutdown of all border points

[bergasa19]

Krece bembanje.

[Utvara]

Zvanična američka podrška kreće.

[Zaz_pi]

Dobro je, do sada nisu davali podrsku. Ovo je pritisak na Ruse pre G8 u Sev. Irskoj, mislim ovoga vikenda. Kao i pokusaj da se ogranici Asadova ofanizva na severu. Nista oni nece preuzeti sto nisu i do sada, a to je: naoruzavanje, obuka i pozadinska podrska. Sto je i receno.A, oni koji se nadaju za zonu zabrane leta:

Mr Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser to Mr ObamaAsked whether Mr Obama would back a no-fly zone over Syria, Mr Rhodes said one would not make a "huge difference" on the ground - but would be costly.

Cak i postoji neki plan zabrane leta koji bi se odnosio na svega 30km od Jordanske granice. Verovatno bi nesto bilo slicno i za Tursku jer se i tamo nalaze PVO Patriot. I, to je to.Ali to ce vam sve Bane5 bolje reci.PS Inace ima zanimljiva prica o tajnom tihom "ratu" Ruske Mediteranske flote i 6. Americke flote, u Istocnom Mediteranu.

[Bane5]

Dobro je, do sada nisu davali podrsku. Ovo je pritisak na Ruse pre G8 u Sev. Irskoj, mislim ovoga vikenda. Kao i pokusaj da se ogranici Asadova ofanizva na severu. Nista oni nece preuzeti sto nisu i do sada, a to je: naoruzavanje, obuka i pozadinska podrska. Sto je i receno.A, oni koji se nadaju za zonu zabrane leta:Cak i postoji neki plan zabrane leta koji bi se odnosio na svega 30km od Jordanske granice. Verovatno bi nesto bilo slicno i za Tursku jer se i tamo nalaze PVO Patriot. I, to je to.Ali to ce vam sve Bane5 bolje reci.PS Inace ima zanimljiva prica o tajnom tihom "ratu" Ruske Mediteranske flote i 6. Americke flote, u Istocnom Mediteranu.

1. Ne postoji nikakva Asadova ofanziva na severu.2. I dalje si lazov jer nisi citirao ono sto si tvrdio iz mojih postova. Edited June 14, 2013 by Bane5

[Indy]

A report to NATO said Syrians have undergone a change of heart over the last six months. The change was seen most in the majority Sunni community, which was long thought to have supported the revolt.“The Sunnis have no love for Assad, but the great majority of the community is withdrawing from the revolt,” the source said. “What is left is the foreign fighters who are sponsored by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. They are seen by the Sunnis as far worse than Assad.”

[Prospero]

hoćemo li biti udostojeni bar još jednog sličnog nastupa for the ages?

[nautilus]

Da nisu malo zakasnili? Ok, koristili su hemijsko oruzje, ali to se desilo prije par mjeseci i nema nikakvog uticaja na ovo sto se sad desava. Sada se to pretvorilo u religijsko klanje u kome nema mnogo milosti ni sa jedne strane. Pobunjenici gube ovaj rat prvenstveno zato sto su se posvadjali medju sobom. Prvo su otisli Kurdi, da bi potom doslo cak i do sukoba izmedju njih i pobunjenika, onda je Al Nusra pocela vojevati neki svoj srednjovjekovni dzihad sa egzekucijama zbog "politeizma" i dezerterstva u najboljem duhu talibana.I sada, kada je ta strana pocela gubiti ulecu amerikanci sa strane.

[Indy]

Ja mislim da su i dalje pozurili, a ne zakasnili.

[Muwan]

Prati li neko izbore u Iranu?

[Prospero]

prati ali hamenei, to je dovoljno

[Jozef K.]

Pa ima li ko da nije konzervativac posle povlačenja Reze Arefa? Možda onaj nuklearac Rohani?Nisam pratio skoro ni deo kao 2009.g. Doduše i tada sam se iznenadio koliko su bili blizu Ahmadinedžadu.

[Prospero]

oko sirije ni huffington nije očaran obaminim potezima