Peti oktobar na bliskom istoku i arapskom svetu

[Roger Sanchez]

Dakle, vrlo je uzbudljivo tamo no izgleda kao da je apetit za pracenje Bliskog istoka usahnuo kako ovde na forumu tako i na svetskim medijima.

Prošla napetost, sad je heavy slogging.

[Bane5]

dogadjaja ne manjka ali se ljudi zasite informacija.tako je bilo i 99'. sami smo sebi ostali vest dana.tako je i danas sa libijom, jemenom i sirijom.

[Gandalf]

ode i Saleh, ne verujem da ce ispasti zombi. kako bilo, igra u Jemenu je jos u toku - Saudi ce se svojski potruditi da instaliraju svog coveka.opoziciji svaka cast sto su ovoliko izdrzali da se ne dohvate ljevora, ali povremeno nema druge.

Ibrahim MothanaCNN: Saleh's medical condition is worse than originally thought, according to Saudi source. #Yemen #Sanaa #GCC #US21 minutes ago

Edited June 5, 2011 by Gandalf

[Gandalf]

neprijatelj mog neprijatelja...

Posted by As'ad AbuKhalil at 8:35 AMThe Muslim Brotherhood ran the conference in Antalia and the statement that spoke about the "civil state" is not going to fool me because US representatives in Antalia (yes they were there) pressed for an inclusive statement. This is exactly what US tried to do in conferences by Iraqi exile opposition before the Ayatullah Sistani republic was set up in Iraq. One should not make his/her opposition to a particular regime (Arab or Iranian) a blanket endorsement for the dominant opposition movement. Instead, we should be criticizing those opposition movements that try to hijack a popular uprising. The branches of the Muslim Brotherhood are all bad: but the Syrian branch is one of the worst, by far. It is the most opportunist of them all.

[Аврам Гојић]

...

Edited June 5, 2011 by Marko M. Dabovic

[Bane5]

pre oko mesec dana neko je postavio ovde pitanje da li je nato gadjao zgradu libijske drzavne televizije. do sada, nato je gadjao odredjena telekomunikaciona cvorista koje je koristila i drzavna tv.malopre je stigla informacija iz libijskih izvora da je nato danas gadjao i zgradu drzavne televizije. ovde se misli na tv jamahiriya. (pored nje u etru su jos dve tv stanice koje su pod kontrolom gadafijevog sina saifa) drzavna tv nije ovim pogotkom i ugasena i uveliko (moguce i duze vreme) radi sa druge lokacije.edit: Nato je vecars dao nekakav demanti da je meta bila zgrada drzavne TV i tvrdi da su gadjali zgradu obavestajne sluzbe. Lud zbunjenog - takav je ovaj sukob u Libiji cesto.

Edited June 6, 2011 by Bane5

[Gandalf]

odlican clanak o Siriji, vredi.If the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt have played a few dramatic acts, relatively simple and decisive, the Syrian case is more like a convoluted soap opera, which we do not guess the ending. So should we follow closely the episodes, and remain alert to developments.

The violence that stirred the country based on a double frame. On the one hand, there is a revolt of the provinces neglected by a regime that is yet emerged. Hafez Assad, father of current president, belonged to a generation of outsiders provincial diverse backgrounds, who fought for his social climbing, the conquest of power captured by a quasi-feudal elite and the projection state to the outskirts, through the provision of services, extending the administrative network, the deployment of the Baath party, the implementation of major development projects, etc..The generation now in power has forgotten his origins. She grew up in Damascus was implicated in an urban elite that pretends to accept it, and invested in a process of liberalization, Syria and elsewhere, benefits only the large cities to the detriment of the provinces. In the past, the State has eclipsed even that of the party, leaving the security services contain an increasing number of problems - when they do not contribute directly by calling the traffickers, the Islamists and networks corruption. Everywhere in Syria, this legacy now bursts into the open.On the other side is playing the hand of the police state allawite which was formed to promote the great repression of the early 1980s when the regime was facing a sectarian insurgency dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. The scheme that Bashar inherited, he has partly dismantled, ruling barons services and tempering the abuse of their agents. The losers of this process are currently making a comeback. Bashar, as before in times of crisis, follows the movement.What happens on the ground is very different from what was said the plan, although not wrong on all fronts. In the official discourse, the revolt would be a dominant Islamist insurgency sponsored by the alien - similar to the phenomenon 30 years ago. But the battle plan its own social bases more than those of the Muslim Brotherhood - whose initiatives from abroad encounter echoes at street level. If there is fundamentalism is essentially the result of a vacuum left by a lame party, a State withdrawal and leadership holed up in the capital.In the provinces, the Syrians do not see today that the plan faces its worst: the security services that do not merely suppress the military component of the protest movement, but trying to crush a whole, using excessive force by multiplying the humiliation, trying to restore the sum of mature fear. Not a chance: if something that protesters will not allow to define their future is the realm of services. What they want, basically, is that of the state - ie a form of government to ensure political representation and economic redistribution a little bit ... and equitable remedies against the violence of the security apparatus.The silent majority is tacitly supporting the regime of fear, rightly, that his fall will also precipitated the collapse of what exists in a state structure. This is the case of a significant portion of minorities (who tremble at the idea of ​​a hegemonic Islamist agenda) middle class (whose status is largely dependent on the state) and businessmen (who fear for their prosaic interests). The revolt of the provinces concerned and the opposition in exile does not reassure, calling for the overthrow of the regime while going to articulate any credible alternative.Requested to ensure some form of stability, the plan does not include them less chaotic way, whether in law enforcement, reform, dialogue with the opposition, or management of the economic consequences of the disorder. In doing so, he convinced a growing part of the silent majority of its inability to offer a solution, in sum, although the dichotomy offered by the government, "us or chaos", has served the early, more Syrians respond more "when subjected to chaos, as without you." Thus, the plan lays the groundwork for mobilization beyond the scope of the revolt of the provinces.It is also unlikely, we can not exclude an alternative scenario. The security approach adopted by Bashar and carried by a elite anxious to protect or promote its interests, is poised to demonstrate its obvious failure. It certainly allows the system to contain the scale of mobilization, but did not extinguish. It catalyzes the militarization of some of its fringes, which inflict the security apparatus more losses it can not tolerate over time. And it perpetuates instability makes the system lose its remaining supports. However, with many enemies and without strong popular base, it will not survive.This fiasco could lead to more sincerely seek a political crisis, when supporters of the hardliners will have nothing to offer. It now appears that he has always been illusory to hope that Bashar would take the lead, engaging in a revolution against his own entourage. But the dynamics within the elite could still change in favor of more rational and reasonable elements that have been marginalized.The fight for the ruling family is maintained in a climate of corruption, incompetence and impunity is a battle she can only lose. The only question that power can hope to defend is that of the state, which will require to undo many aspects that make him a "regime". At this stage, it has the choice to dismantle itself through its errors and excesses, until the implosion, or disband voluntarily and systematically. If he does second best, he will need all the encouragement that international society has to offer.It's a safe bet that the regime chose instead the path of collective suicide. In this case, everything will depend ultimately on the determination of Syrian society, which for now resists bursting with dynamic power plays, to grow there without follow him there.Peter Harling, Project Director, based in Damascus, for the International Crisis Group

[Bane5]

U Yemenu se i dalje malo zna ko pije a ko placa. Regularna vojska napada uporiste ekstremista bliskih Al Kaidi (gradic Zinjibar), borci plemena koji se bore protiv Salehovog rezima zauzimaju jedan grad na jugu Yemena (Taiz), Salehovi saborci i pristalice ga ocekuju da se vrati sa lecenja iz Saudijske Arabije, ali prema izvorima CNN-a on je u takvom stanju da i sve da se vrati u Sanu nema mnogo sansi da vodi drzavu zbog teskih povreda koje je pretrpeo.Asad salje nove snage na sever Sirije.NATO cestita rodjendan Gadafiju - samo od jutros i samo na prostoru vojno-rezidencijalnog kompleksa u Bab Azaziji u Triploju culo se preko 25 eksplozija od kojih su neke bile izuzetno jake pa se pretpostavlja da su upotrebljene bunker buster bombe. Arapsko prolece se najmanje moze tako nazvati u ovom stadijumu, ako je i bilo proleca ono je nestalo u vihoru ubijanja i krvi.

[hazard]

Nada koju sam imao da ce iz svega izaci neki bolji i funkcionalniji bliski istok mi polako bledi...Mislim da cemo videti samo veci i veci haos, narocito u Jemenu, Siriji i Libiji, a i svakoj sledecoj drzavi u kojoj krene vlast da pada. Ispada da su samo Tunis i Egipat imali drustveni kapacitet da izvedu relativno mirnu revoluciju, a i dalje je pitanje koliko ce se zahtevi demonstranata sprovesti u delo.

[Roger Sanchez]

Iman al-Obaidi bliže nego što ste mogli i pomisliti - u Temišvaru.

[Agni]

Libération pise da su Francuzi, Britanci, Nemci i Portugalci spremili predlog rezolucije kojom bi Savet Bezbednosti osudio nasilje i represiju u Siriji, ali da su Rusi i Kinezi protiv, jer smatraju da bi to mogao da bude prvi korak ka vojnoj intervenciji.

[Budja]

Libération pise da su Francuzi, Britanci, Nemci i Portugalci spremili predlog rezolucije kojom bi Savet Bezbednosti osudio nasilje i represiju u Siriji, ali da su Rusi i Kinezi protiv, jer smatraju da bi to mogao da bude prvi korak ka vojnoj intervenciji.

Od vojne intervencije nema nista dok se ne pojavi OVK/Transitional Council.Dakle, ako rese da je Asadu rok trajanja istekao pre vojne intervencije morace da se pogura neka snaga na zemlji. Mozda ona i postoji, jer izgleda da tamo zaista ima naoruaznih grupa. O tome je i Fisk pisao pre jedno mesec dana (Luba postavila link).

[Nesh]

Turska ponudila garancije Gadafiju ako napusti LibijuAutor: BetaTurska je ponudila garancije libijskom lideru Moameru Gadafiju ukoliko odmah napusti Libiju ali još uvek nije dobila odgovor na tu ponudu, izjavio je večeras turski premijer Redžep Tajip Erdogan.Erdogan je rekao da Gadafi nema više nikakve alternative sem danapusti Libiju, uz garancije koje će mu biti date, prenosi Frans pres.

[braca]

[Roger Sanchez]

"I found her photo on Facebook a while back and ... when I saw her photo, I was like, that is Amina ... So I just nabbed her photos and was using her."

Ovog bezbrižnog đubretarskog jenki šaljivdžiju treba malo u zatvor ili puno po džepu, ima li kakaf zakon oko tog?

Daniel Nassar:I'm so outraged I can't even type well. Mr. Tom MacMaster, with due respect, has the audacity to say on the blog he created over the last two years that he did not harm anyone with his fictional writing; I beg to differ.Because of you, Mr. MacMaster, a lot of the real activists in the LGBT community became under the spotlight of the authorities in Syria. These activists, among them myself, had to change so much in their attitude and their lives to protect themselves from the positional harm your little stunt created. You have, sir, put a lot of lives, mine and some friends included, in harm's way so you can play your little game of fictional writing. This attention you brought forced me back to the closet on all the social media websites I use; cause my family to go into a frenzy trying to force me back into the closet and my friends to ask me for phone numbers of loved ones and family members so they can call them in case I disappeared myself. Many people who are connected to me spent nights worrying about me and many fights I had with my family were because you wanted to play your silly game of the media. You feed the foreign media an undeniable dish of sex, religion and politics and you are now leaving us with this holier-than-thou semi-apologize with lame and shallow excuses of how you wanted to bring attention to the right people on the ground. I'm sorry, you're not on the ground, you don't know the ground and you don't even belong to the culture of the people on the group.You took away my voice, Mr. MacMaster, and the voices of many people who I know. To bring attention to yourself and blog; you managed to bring the LGBT movement in the Middle East years back. You single-handedly managed to bring unwanted attention from authorities to our cause and you will be responsible for any LGBT activist who might be yet another fallen angel during these critical time. I'm outraged, and if I lived in a country where I can sue you, I would.

U drugim vijestima, Germanija priznala rebelze.A Gay Minister in Benghazi Edited June 13, 2011 by Roger Sanchez