Peti oktobar na bliskom istoku i arapskom svetu

[Tresko]

Konačno i taj zapad da se dokopa libijske nafte. 50 godina ne mogu ni da joj priđu.

Da, ali nisu uludo potrošili tih 50 godina. Brižljivo su planirali i vagali sve opcije i - voila!

Kako mali Djokica razmislja.

[Budja]

Otprilike je 50-ak godina priblizno tacna vremenska odrednica od kada se u Libiji vrse istrazivanja i ekspoloatise nafta u saradnji sa stranim kompanijama.Kako bilo, zapadne naftne kompanije su vec suvlasnice bar 90% koncesija pa je sve ovo smisljeno da urade sta - osvoje ostatak ili zastite postojeci interes? ili da sruse polunacionalizovani sistem eksploatacije Libijske nafte?

Postoji promena ugovora, promena sistema eksploatacije, novi zakoni...Sta je tu sporno?Sa druge strane, umesto jednokratne "humanitanre" pomoci u novcu, govori se o zajmovima. To jeste vid uslovljavanja i uspostavljanja kontrole. I ne vidim kako se to moze upariti sa moralnim pobudama.Ne mislim da je u pitanju 50 godina planirana strategija, vec mislim da je u pitanju igra kako najvise profitirati iz date situacije. No, to ne menja cinjenicu da zapadne sile vec preventivno uvode kontrolu, stap i sargarepu, da im se slucajno novi rezim ne bi suvise ritao.

[luba]

sirija sve ozbiljnije. za sada nije potvrdjeno i zvanicno, ali syrian observatory for human rights, dosta cenjena ngo, javlja da je uhapsen vodeci opozicionar riad seif, odmah posle molitvi u damasku.seif, opozicioni poslanik, vec je godinama po zatvorima, jedan je 12 potpisnika "damascus declaration" koja trazi demokratiju u siriji. prvi put je hapsen 2001, posle prvog pokusaja uvodjenja reformi u siriji.u homsu je ubijeno petoro ljudi, a desetak ranjeno posle molitvi.zanimljiva analiza zasto arapski svet cuti na sirijsko prolece:

Arab states are keeping mum and not taking positions on the Syrian crisis, fearing the unrest there could spill over their borders as they battle their own internal issues, analysts say. With the Middle East in turmoil, further destabilisation of Syria could have serious consequences for its immediate Arab neighbours such as Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and beyond, they say. Arab capitals have been quiet despite the international community expressing outrage over the Syrian authorities' deadly repression of protests against President Bashar al-Assad, which according to rights activists has killed more than 600 people since March 15. The experience in Syria and Libya "demonstrates that rapid change, which was relatively easy in Tunisia and Egypt, is not necessarily replicated elsewhere," said Mustafa al-Ani of the Gulf Research Centre in Dubai. "Leaders of many countries are reluctant to engage when the situation is still so uncertain. Moreover, a civil war in Syria could bring civil war to Lebanon, increase terrorism in Iraq and undermine Jordanian security." Syria remains influential in Lebanon through Islamist militant movement Hezbollah in particular, while the Lebanese political classes, whether they support Syria or not, are also worried about a backlash. "All Lebanese parties are distancing themselves from events in Syria," said Hilal Khashan of the American University of Beirut. Even the pro-Western Lebanese camp "thinks if it supports the opposition in Syria, it will only worsen the regime's repression," he added. Antoine Basbous, director of the Observatory of Arab Countries in Paris, said the fear of Syrian retaliation is also keeping these nations quiet. "The Syrian regime is a pyromaniac that has never hesitated to cause problems for Lebanon, Jordan or Iraq. Some countries are aware of Syria's nuisance value and don't want to provoke it," he said. Egypt, the most populous nation in the Arab world, is absorbed in its own delicate political transition after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak and "has no desire to engage in outside quarrels" such as the Syrian crisis, he said. Indeed, the new Egypt has made clear "it is rather tempted to get closer to Damascus, with whom Mubarak had tense relations," said Sayyed Mustafa Kamel from the University of Cairo. The Arab League is also in turmoil due to the internal crises in many of its member states and hence has little opportunity to speak assertively on Syria. The Arab League this week announced the postponement until March 2012 of its annual summit, which was due to be held this month in Baghdad. Turkey, a key neighbour to the Arab world, is also nervous about the situation in a country that, like itself, has a large Kurdish community, while close ally Iran has kept a low profile concerning the repression in Syria, with whom it says it has "32 years of strong relations." But Israel, which captured two-thirds of the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 six-day war, fears the unpredictable consequences of instability in its northern neighbour. "Imagine the consequences for the Arab world if Israel were to intervene in Syria," said Kamel.

dosta nalik na fiskova razmisljanja od prosle nedelje. Edited May 6, 2011 by luba

[Gandalf]

http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/11506.aspx

“We are going to launch TV channels soon, as well as sport clubs to compete in the Egyptian League and Cup,” said Supreme Guide Mohammed Badie during the opening ceremony of Muslim Brotherhood House in Tanta city.

Edited May 6, 2011 by Gandalf

[Bane5]

Postoji promena ugovora, promena sistema eksploatacije, novi zakoni...Sta je tu sporno?

Sporno ne mora da bude nista. Pobunjenici su pristali da ugovori koji su potpisani ostanu isti tj. oni za sada prihvataju kompletnu dosadasnju politiku polunacionalizovanog nacina davanja koncesija, proizvodnje i prodaje nafte sto opet ne znaci da ih nece menjati u nekoj buducnosti, ali kratkorocno izgleda da nije to u pitanju.Koncesije se u Libiji izdaju na nimalo kratke preiode (ne isticu uskoro kako je neko ovde svojevremeno pricao). Najveci broj koncesija je u delimicnom vlasnistvu (zbog polunacionalizovanog sistema nijedna strana kompanija nema ni priblizno vecinsko vlasnistvo i vecina ostaje libijskim kompanijama koje osniva drzava) imaju zapadne (multi)kompanije.U sustini, malo sta zapadne sile mogu da dobiju vise od onoga sto sada imaju.To svakako nije vredno intervencije ovakvog oblika.Vredno intervencije je zastita postojeceg interesa. Sve preko toga ako bude, dobro je. Edited May 6, 2011 by Bane5

[Eraserhead]

Zli zapad u pohodu na Sirijsku naftu

[Budja]

Zli zapad u pohodu na Sirijsku naftu

Agencija AP prenela je navode jednog istaknutog aktiviste za ljudska prava da je više od 30 ljudi poginulo kada je policija pucala na demonstrante. Taj izvor zahtevao je anonimnost.

Tipicno za sirijsku situaciju.Apsolutno nijedna proverena i pouzdana informacija do sada. A neke lice na Besku.No, vlasti su same krive kada je pristup stranim novinarima zabranjen. Edited May 6, 2011 by Budja

[Indy]

Onako generalno, mi anti-intervecionisti :D, ne pravimo kvalitativnu razliku izmedju tipicnog motiva konzervativaca (=neokona) kad su u pitanju vojne invazije - prirodni resursi - i onog liberalno-demokratskih krugova - cinjenje sveta sigurnog za demokratiju.I jedno i drugo mu se svodi na geostratesku kontrolu i raspodelu moci, i ova "intervencija da se zastite civili" se ne razlikuje u tom pogledu. Ima dosta kvalitetnih opinjuna na temu buduceg znacaja Afrike u sveckom odnosu snaga. Kazu neki, Kinezi su vec tamo (kupuju kapacitete).Posto vidim da se mnogo natezete oko te nafte. Sad je igra da se imaju prsti u buducoj vladi Libije, a nafta i ostalo sto s tim ide, doci ce samo od sebe.(Mada je ovo vise za onu drugu, libijsku, temu).

[Indy]

Cairo sectarian clash turns deadly

[Gandalf]

krcka se u Teheranu. moglo bi postati zanimljivo, Nidza nema nameru da izigrava piona...http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/05/opinion-ahmadinejad-khamenei-rift-deepens-to-an-abyss.html

Most crucially, the taboo of a president standing up to the Supreme Leader has been broken. Khamenei himself tried to do this to Khomeini over Mousavi's premiership in 1985, but was quickly marginalized. Ahmadinejad has yet to be marginalized, although that process might have begun with the arrests of members of his inner circle. But Ahmadinejad has demonstrated that he does not like to be used as a tool by Khamenei, and that it is the Supreme Leader who may actually need him. He is well aware of all the corruption, as well as all the fraud that has been committed in past elections, and recognizes that Khamenei created too many enemies for himself in every strata of the society to keep him around as the president. He has also made it clear to Khamenei that he is not his president, but Imam Mahdi's.Given the volatile nature of Iranian politics and the unpredictability of Ahmadinejad's decision-making process, anything is possible. The confrontation between the two camps is by no means over. The Green Movement may benefit if it patiently watches, and lets the two camps destroy each other.

[Takeshi]

Cairo sectarian clash turns deadly

zanimljiva je teorija koju pominje jedan od anketiranih u prilogu, da je ovo pokusaj prethodne ekipe sa vlasti da pokrene talas verskog nasilja.

[Bane5]

Eman El Obeidi, zena koja je pokusala da se stranim novinarima u Tripoliju pozali na navodna silovanja koja je istrpela od strane libijskih vojnika na jednom kontrolnom punktu u Tripoliju, uspela je da prebegne u Tunis.Mada se tvrdi da je pobegla tajno uz pomoc rodbinskih veza i jednog odbeglog oficira libijske vojske, a sve preko prelaza Wazin koji trenutno kontrolisu pobunjenicke snage iz Naluta i Jadua. Doduse, malo mi je tesko da poverujem da neko za koga je licno Saadi Gadafi bio medijator tokom istrage, pobegne tek tako. Kako bilo, uskoro krece na put da se sretne sa svojom porodicom dal' u Libiji (Tobruk) ili ne to je sada manje vazno.

[Gandalf]

zanimljiva je teorija koju pominje jedan od anketiranih u prilogu, da je ovo pokusaj prethodne ekipe sa vlasti da pokrene talas verskog nasilja.

salafi = Mubarakovi i/ili Saudi.

[Hella]

sectarian clash

ah, oh. ponovo ti "etnički sukobi", "verske tenzije" i "religiozna neslaganja". tako u WWII poginuše neki nemci, izumreše neke ješe i cigani, tragično je kako ljudi ne kontaju suživot, draga prebaci na džejmi olivera...

[Аврам Гојић]

ok ajde sada price radi: kako ti tumacis ove dogadjaje? kao pocetak genocida nad Koptima?

Edited May 8, 2011 by Marko M. Dabovic