Peti oktobar na bliskom istoku i arapskom svetu

[Roger Sanchez]

Izgleda da se primiče momenat za naziranje nekakvog rešenja, bar koliko ja znam da čitam između redova. Pogotovo ako avijacija saveznika ne digne u vazduh lojaliste u Sirtu u narednih 12 sati.Na channel 4u je William Hague upravo postavio svetski rekord. Mislim da je izgovorio reč "ceasefire" otprilike 8 puta u minutu i kusur. Ko veruje u subliminalne poruke...

+1 (navali na koju stranicu prije)Video konferencija intervenata sa Angelom je bila održana, Obama danas mora nešto konceptualizirati....

Tripoli, Libya (CNN) -- Libyan opposition fighters Monday entered territory loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, but soon had to flee amid a barrage of gunfire, rebels told CNN. As they moved into Umm el Ghindel -- near Sirte, Gadhafi's birthplace -- they began searching some homes and found that Gadhafi's forces had armed residents in the area, rebels said. As they were talking to residents, asking them to join the opposition, gunfire broke out. Rebels told CNN they refused to fire back and began a hasty retreat. A stream of vehicles could be seen fleeing the area. CNN could not confirm details of what had transpired. Earlier, a wounded rebel with bandages on the left side of his head and face described what happened Monday about 30 kilometers (nearly 20 miles) from Sirte, near the city's main entrance.He said he and a group of fellow opposition fighters came across a group of Gadhafi forces who raised a white flag -- a suggestion that they would not shoot. But as the opposition approached the group, the Gadhafi forces fired on them indiscriminately, killing some of the opposition members and wounding others, the rebel told CNN's Arwa Damon. Vehicles were destroyed as well, he said.

Edited March 28, 2011 by Roger Sanchez

[Roger Sanchez]

Let’s go through this step by step, the way Obama should have from the beginning. Tunisia and Egypt enjoyed popular uprisings, resulting in mostly peaceful changes in government. Another erupted in Libya, and Gaddafi promised to massacre the rebels. Given his track record of atrocities, this had to be believed. The situation became a potential humanitarian crisis. In most cases, the international community does nothing but blow smoke in such situations. In this one, several factors made action beyond economic sanctions and scolding possible: Everyone hated Gaddafi, and some military mission seemed doable at low cost. Then, much to everyone’s surprise, the Arab League called for a no-fly zone to prevent Gaddafi from using airpower to decimate his opponents. Then, also surprisingly, Russia and China didn’t veto a U.N. resolution calling for “all necessary measures” to protect civilians. In all these international authorizations, the sole goal was to protect people and prevent a humanitarian calamity. None of these resolutions in any way suggested action beyond silencing Gaddafi’s air force, though there was implicit recognition that air power would have to be used to truly make the population safe. Did almost all of these nations want to get rid of Gaddafi? Yes. But Obama stumbled early on when he proclaimed “Gaddafi must go.” He later explained that this was simply a matter of “U.S. national policy,” and not coalition or Arab League policy. But the damage was done, and the confusion began. Obama’s words went far, too far, to committing the United States to removing Gaddafi, to putting U.S. prestige and credibility on the line. It was a mistake, all too typical of the Obama style to speak first and think smarter later. He will reaffirm this larger goal in his talk Monday, but will clarify that it is not part of the coalition mission, nor will Washington pursue the goal by means of military force. This will make hardliners very, very unhappy. But if Obama explains it deftly, most Americans will understand and sympathize with the need not to involve their nation in yet another land war. And make no mistake, it would take another land war to accomplish that goal—unless we plain luck out.

Opinjun, proricanje. Gelb.

[Bane5]

Zanimljivo

Pentagon: Last night military pilot reported a "ballistic missile launch", the only report of air defense fired at a coalition plane

[Jozef K.]

Iran nije demokracija, nešto što ima nedodirljivog i doživotnog vođu i neoborivo vijeće čuvara pravog poretka nije demokracija čak ni na papiru.

Znam, samo je suština da ne krene Egipat tim putem. A izbori se održavaju i u Iranu... ElBaradei se zalaže na primer za pravo glasa Egipćana abroad, ali se to za sada blokira. Generalno nema jasnog plana tranzicije, nema pravog dijaloga, stari ljudi i dalje drmaju medijima, mnogo toga što može da odvede u demagogiju i populizam. A da religiozni pokret ima pravo da pobedi, ima, pod uslovom da izbora ima na 4 godine sa jasno izgrađenim demokratskim sistemom, koji štiti prava manjinskih grupa u bilo kom smislu.

[Roger Sanchez]

Znam, samo je suština da ne krene Egipat tim putem. A izbori se održavaju i u Iranu... ElBaradei se zalaže na primer za pravo glasa Egipćana abroad, ali se to za sada blokira. Generalno nema jasnog plana tranzicije, nema pravog dijaloga, stari ljudi i dalje drmaju medijima, mnogo toga što može da odvede u demagogiju i populizam. A da religiozni pokret ima pravo da pobedi, ima, pod uslovom da izbora ima na 4 godine sa jasno izgrađenim demokratskim sistemom, koji štiti prava manjinskih grupa u bilo kom smislu.

Pa ono, glavna problem oko Ikhwana ispada što je tako popularan, ali možda je baš koja godina baktanja sa svakodnevnim vođenjem države dobar lijek za prejaku popularnost. Znam da postoje opasnosti od populizma, skretanja u ratne vode radi odvraćanja od životnijih problema, ali u ovom trenutku želim vjerovati da ne postoje narodi (ili, da se preciznije izrazim, njihove podnacije) koji nisu sposobni za demokraciju. Vjerujem u fer izbore, neću grist nokte ako Ikhwan pobijedi, navijati ću da za 4 godine egipćani imaju istu šansu. Tješi me da u ovom trenutku ne vidim da imaju na vidiku već izgrađenog, poznatog i popularnog psihopata kao što je bio Khomeini.

[Jozef K.]

Slažem se. Prva rečenica je tačna, a pogotovo važi, ako sam narod nema vremena za neki dugački medeni mesec sa novim vlastima.Druga je potpuno tačna i Egipćani jesu sposobni po mom sudu, samo sam izrazio viđenje da su praktično konce počeli da vuku bradonje umesto naočaraca. I poslednja je tačna, tako da živi bili, pa gledali. Imaju šansu, to je najvažnije.

[Gandalf]

"bradonje"? koji su ti?stara garda ce imati muku da "vuce konce" u samom MB-u...In a conference rejected by the Muslim Brotherhood's hawkish and veteran vanguard, hundreds of the organization's youths on Saturday urged internal democratization in the group and voiced concerns over a would-be Brotherhood political party.... Despite the organizers' apologetic tone toward their entrenched leaders, the conference represents an act of defiance. Last week, influential member of the Guidance Bureau Mohamed Morsi told Al-Masry Al-Youm that the organization disapproved of the conference.

Edited March 28, 2011 by Gandalf

[Roger Sanchez]

"bradonje"? koji su ti?stara garda ce imati muku da "vuce konce" u samom MB-u...

odličan blahg-post tamo na onom topiku! koncizan, a sa multifactoringom i perspektivom i vicom (ono sa Mubarak is not Ben Ali, prajsles :D)...U Siriji su se upoznati-sa-situacijom popišali na Bashiree najave, kažu da će izvanredno stanje zamijeniti antiterorističkim™ zakonima sa istom suštinom, dubinom i oštrinom. Pošto je to savršeno u skladu s time što očekujem od 1 izdanka te loze i šefa te partije & tradicije, I'll curb my enthusiasm..<_<

[Gandalf]

http://www.sandmonkey.org/2011/03/28/10-points/

• The Salafists & MB are local players, but they have foreign ties and funding. Qatar fully funds and supports the MB , and Saudi fully funds and directs the Salafists. While Qatar is more interested in having a say in a democratic Egypt, Saudi is more interested in blackmailing Egypt into continuing the Sunni-Zionist alliance against Iran. Naturally, Egypt, right now, is totally not interested, so Saudi tries to pressure us by inciting lots of Salafi Chaos and violence. Please note that it’s all very targeted against so called egyptian minorities, attacking christians and women mostly, and burning churches.
• Amr Moussa is the preferred candidate for President for all of the international players: A man from the system, has no achievements either as Foreign Minister or Secretary of Arab League, friendly to dictators and foreign powers, and who barks a lot for public consumption regarding the US and Israel, but always always always does their bidding. The Americans and the Israelis are rooting for him most of all, because they know his MO, and they can’t guarantee how either Baradei or Bastaweesy will play it. Many Egyptian elites want him as well for the same reason they supported the Ahmed Shafiq government: He is someone they know..someone from the system, a good ole boy from the same corrupt system that we revolted against and who until the last minute wanted to save Mubarak’s presidency and now stands firm on not putting Mubarak on trial as well.
• Baradei & Bastaweesy are the two honest candidates in the field right now, which is why they are losing badly. Baradei’s campaign’s inability to engage the population or respond to rapidly changing events is continuing to enforce the image that he is elitist and disconnected from the population. For example, the MB yesterday endorsed Baradei in an attempt to corner him internationally (how does Muslim Brotherhood backed candidate for President sound to all of you in the west, people?), a move that he could’ve easily used to his advantage by going on TV and saying that he welcomes the MB’s endorsement for his campaign for a civil secular Egypt and that he hopes this ends all the lies about his daughter being married to an Infidel (which isn't true, but is used against him by the salafists) or that he is America’s agent, because there is no way the MB would endorse him in that case.
• One thing to be sure of, the next election in Egypt will be incredibly fun, due to the fact that many US election campaign operatives are now offering their services to the highest bidder, and the egyptian election is a very sexy and important election for them. I even heard some were hired, but by whom? No clue. But if you can deduce who has money in Egypt right now and who they support, well, then you have your answer. Hint: The revolution backed candidates have no money to buy those guys. This will get interesting very quickly.
• What we need to do is withdraw ourselves from the scene, stop being everyone’s favorite blame hanger and work on the ground. Reach out to every governrate, go to every city, village and house, Zenga Zenga Dar Dar style. Also, our absence will force those blaming us (The MB, the government, the Army, the NDP crowd, the Couch Party) to look for someone else to blame, and will start attacking each other. Good. Let them fight each other while we work to win this on the ground, out of sight and under the radar.

Edited March 28, 2011 by Gandalf

[Roger Sanchez]

I'm out of Libya. What a nasty, repressive regime. Was unable to tweet for 2 wks but thank you for all the support. http://bit.ly/fxhUoj about 7 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

Obavezno pročitati blog linkan u twitu.isječak iz susjednog, najnovijeg blaghposta:

Hillary Clinton’s latest justification for taking action is that they were asked to do so by the UK and France – and that given how we helped America invade Afghanistan after 9-11 that they basically owed us one. It’s not clear whether the same reasoning would see the Americans take action elsewhere in the Middle East if we ask them really nicely. Or whether the Afghan favour has now been repaid. We may still have a favour left over from the 2003 invasion of Iraq – she didn’t say.

Edited March 28, 2011 by Roger Sanchez

[Gandalf]

[Jozef K.]

"bradonje"? koji su ti?stara garda ce imati muku da "vuce konce" u samom MB-u...In a conference rejected by the Muslim Brotherhood's hawkish and veteran vanguard, hundreds of the organization's youths on Saturday urged internal democratization in the group and voiced concerns over a would-be Brotherhood political party.... Despite the organizers' apologetic tone toward their entrenched leaders, the conference represents an act of defiance. Last week, influential member of the Guidance Bureau Mohamed Morsi told Al-Masry Al-Youm that the organization disapproved of the conference.

upravo stara garda. Generalno, Egipat je najinteresantnije političko polje.

[Jozef K.]

Teško ide bez avijacije. Gadafijevci krenuli u kontru, poterali ove iz Navfalije, Bin Jawada i kreću ka Ras Lanufu. Ima glasova da Gadafi mora da ide, ali je više onih koji kažu da nije u sklopu rezolucije promena režima.

[Tutankamon]

1257 : This just in from the BBC's Nick Springate in Bin Jawad, who says the rebels are now back in control of the key town, although fighting is continuing to its west.

[Bane5]

hit and run bitke od jutros u crvenoj dolini i bin jawadu.revolucionari i njihove volonterske jedinice se tesko nose sa jakom artiljerijskom vatrom i bez podrske sa neba, a gadafijeve snage nisu dovoljne da idu dalje od bin jawada.licno mi je interesantnije desavanje od sinoc u misrati. po prvi put su imali pokusaj desanta na luku - nekoliko plovila (manjih) iz sastava libijske vojske (mornarice). koliko sam mogao da zakljucim u pitanju je bio jak sinhronizaovan napad, artiljerija iz pravca grada koji gadafijeve snage vec kontrolisu, tenkovima u deo grada koji ne kontrolisu i ovaj napad na luku s mora.svi napadi su odbijeni, a ispostavlja se da je doslo do dejstvovanja po ovim manjim brodovima od strane NATO flote. jedan manji brod je unisten, drugi su gadafijevi vojnici napustili, a patrolni brod (najveci koji je ucestvovao u ovom pohodu) se morao sakriti skroz uz obalu.danas se nastavlja uplovljavanje brodova u misratu. najveci broj je humanitarnog karaktera (dovozi se hrana, voda i lekovi), a sasvim pouzdano se da cuti i pretpostaviti da je bar u par navrata u misratu na ovaj nacin stizalo i oruzje, mozda i pojacanje revolucionarima u ljudstvu.