Peti oktobar na bliskom istoku i arapskom svetu

[angern]

Zbog toga sto je komadant te baterije idiot. Postrojeni kao na smotri, sve sa cisternom goriva pored.

Moraju da napune

sutra je glasanje o rezoluciji o nfz. usa kaze da imaju plan za "brzu akciju" ako rezolucija bude usvojena.

Na svu sreću rezolucija o Bahreinu je vrlo brzo usvojenaNajbolje bi bilo da sami pobede Gadafija, mada je to jako teško, samo da ništa ne duguju toj fukari za koju smatram da je gora od Gadafija, a i da ne postoji 0,01% šanse da pomognu, jer im tiranin više odgovara nego slobodna zemlja. jer su i sami tirani, samo perfidniji. Edited March 17, 2011 by angern

[MancMellow]

adzdabije nije pala u celosti. zapadni i juzni prilaz drze gadafijeve snage, a istocni i severni drze revolucionari. koridor ka bengaziju je cist. nema nikakvog znaka opkoljavanja tobruka, u bengaziju je napeto ali mirno, a misrata je danas uz dosta civilnih zrtava opet ostala van domasaja gadafijevih snaga.e sad, ja ovo ne pisem zato sto hocu da kontriram smrdanskom ili zato sto navijam za revolucionare, ovo su informacije do kojih se moglo doci i koje su koliko toliko proverene.

Ma ok, opusteno, i da pises zato sto navijas, meni nije bitno. Ja svejedno navijam za to da se NFZ usvoji sutra ili bar sprovede i bez toga i da Gadafiju polome i avione i aerodrome. A i stagod pride.

[Gandalf]

ja i Exum razmisljamo slicno... :D Q: Why Is Lebanon Drafting the U.N. No-Fly Resolution on Libya?A: I suspect most of this blog's readers already know this, but charismatic Lebanese leader Musa Sadr disappeared while traveling to Libya in 1978. Musa Sadr, an Iranian-born cleric, was at the time the unquestioned leader of Lebanon's Shia community and was also widely respected outside his own sect. It is hard to imagine the 1980s Hizballah-Amal split among Lebanon's Shia community taking place had Musa Sadr not been "lost" (or, as is likely, executed by Gadhafi). No one knows why Gadhafi disappeared Sadr, though some suspected the hand of the PLO given rising tensions between the Palestinians and Lebanese in (the mostly Shia area of) southern Lebanon....Gadhafi has always avoided visiting Lebanon as the result of still visceral anger about the disappearance of Musa Sadr, and no one would be happier to stick the knife in Gadhafi than the Lebanese.P.S. How about we just forget about a no-fly zone and ask Hizballah to take care of Gadhafi? I know it's unorthodox, but a) I am ever budget-conscious, b) I like to think outside the box, and c) based on our experiences in Iraq with Jaysh al-Mahdi, Hizballah has some experience with this kind of thing. So maybe we can ring Hassan Nasrallah and ask him if he is busy?**Before anyone loses it in the comments section, this is a joke.

[Gandalf]

ponovo Andrew Exum...Someone once said -- I think it was Bernard Fall -- that the French were not so much outfought at Dien Bien Phu as they were out-engineered. I thought of that while reading this line from a Jon Lee Anderson dispatch from Libya: "The rebels have lost ground because they have not learned how to hold it. At the front lines at Ras Lanuf and Brega, they didn’t dig trenches, and so when jets came to bomb them they panicked and ran."Defending is hard work. No one likes digging fighting positions, and it usually takes disciplined officers and non-commissioned officers to force soldiers to do it. But in the defense, the things you do to prepare yourself when the enemy is not shooting at you -- when you would rather be smoking cigarettes and drinking tea -- are the things that keep you from being killed when the enemy is shooting at you.UPDATE: An especially learned reader pointed me to Steve Biddle's article "Victory Misunderstood" (.pdf, p. 158) about the First Persian Gulf War in which Steve faults the amazingly bad Iraqi fighting positions as one cause of the poor Iraqi combat performance. I don't think we can draw conclusions about all Arab fighting organizations not liking to dig proper foxholes -- after all, Hizballah's defensive positions during the 2006 War were fantastic -- but we can draw such a conclusion about poorly disciplined fighting organizations not liking to dig proper foxholes.I'll end with a word of advice for the rebels in Benghazi: START DIGGING NOW.

[Luka]

Evo kako je u nacrtu rezolucije definisana NFZ:

No-Fly Zone3. Decides to establish a ban on all flights in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians;4. Decides further that the ban imposed by paragraph 3 shall not apply to flights whose sole purpose is humanitarian, such as delivering or facilitating the delivery of assistance, including medical supplies, food, humanitarian workers and related assistance, or evacuating foreign nationals from the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, nor shall it apply to flights authorised by paragraph 5 below, nor other flights operated by States acting under this authorisation which are deemed necessary for the benefit of the Libyan people;5. Authorises Member States to take all necessary measures to enforce compliance with the ban on flights established in paragraph 3 above and to prevent any use of aircraft for aerial attacks against the civilian population, and requests the States concerned in cooperation with the League of Arab States to coordinate closely with the Secretary General on the measures they are taking to implement this ban, including by establishing an appropriate mechanism for implementing the provisions of paragraphs 3 and 4 above,6. Calls upon all Member States and regional organisations to provide assistance, including any necessary over-flight approvals, for the purposes of implementing paragraphs 3, 4 and 5 above;7. Requests the Member States concerned to coordinate closely with each other and the Secretary-General on the measures they are taking to implement paragraphs 3 and 4 above, including practical measures for the monitoring and approval of authorised humanitarian or evacuation flights;8. Requests the Member States concerned to inform the Secretary-General and the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States immediately of measures taken in exercise of the authority conferred by paragraph 5 above;9. Requests the Secretary-General to inform the Council immediately of any actions taken by the Member States concerned in exercise of the authority conferred by paragraph 5 above and to report to the Council within 7 days and every month thereafter on the implementation of this resolution, including information any violations of the flight ban;

to je najbitniji deo drafta, ostalo su uglavnom diplo fraze i manje bitne stvariDRAFT

UN Security Council to consider measures that would lead to - and perhaps beyond - a no fly zone over Lybia.

“and perhaps beyond” upravo sugeriše agresivnije mere od gore navedenih. Koliko vidim, US administracija je prolomila, a čitam i da se sada smatra da NFZ može biti “too little, too late” korak. Te agresivnije mere neki vojni analitičari zovu No-Drive Zone – sprečavanje kretanja tenkova i artiljerije.Glasanje je možda već sutra.

[Tutankamon]

Čitam izveštaje o tome kako su gadafijevci avionima bombardovali aerodrom Benina pored Bengazija. Danas je navodno jedan avion prebegao na stranu pobunjenika a pre neki dan čak 7. E sad, ja ne verujem u ove vesti samo ih navodim kao ilustraciju toga šta se priča. Ovo bombardovanje Benine ipak potvrđuje kako su vesti o aktivnostima aviona i helikoptera pobunjenika u protekla dva-tri dana ipak tačna. Ako su tačna to navodi na zaključak kako su ipak najverovatnije dobili neku pomoć (do pre tri dana nije bilo ni govora o njihovoj avijaciji) ili su se mnogo bolje organizovali...uzgred, pročitao sam negde izveštaje kako je egipatski mobilni operater dostupan od pre neki dan na istoku Libije...takođe, Žipe je izjavio kako se neke arapske zemlje spremaju da vojno intervenišu a čitao sam izveštaj kako ih ima 5 i da samo čekaju da se donese odluka u SB...ne bi me čudilo da je među njima Egipat...

Edited March 17, 2011 by Tutankamon

[Luka]

Pardon, četvrtak je danas (), nastavljaju diskusiju a možda i glasaju danas (as soon as possible). Juče niko od 15 članica UNSC nije izrazio protivljenje NFZ, jedino se oko sadržaja još diskutuje. Ibrahim O. A. Dabbashi, Ambassador, Deputy Permanent Representative of Libya

[Bane5]

Tutankamon, na Benini (koji je uzgred i medjunarodni civilni aerodrom) je ostalo par aviona pocetkom revolucije, ali se spekulisalo u kakvom su stanju, a sam aerodrom je bio "onesposobljen" ma sta to znacilo. Ostali avioni su tu dosli nakon prebega pilota Libijaca. Od tada u vecem broju (mada i dalje ima domacih pilota) Gadafijevim avionima pilotiraju stranci, placenici. I juce je sam aerodrom napadnut. Od jutros su nastavljane borbe u Adzdabiji, u Bengaziju je mirno. Ceka se odluka SB-a.ps. Zanimljiv nacin izvestavanja - iako imaju svog reportera u Bengaziju, BBC ovako formulise stanje u Adzdabiji sinoc: Libyan rebels have deployed tanks, artillery and a helicopter for the first time to repel an attack by pro-Gaddafi forces on the key town of Ajdabiya, the BBC understands.

[Luka]

..Žipe je izjavio kako se neke arapske zemlje spremaju da vojno intervenišu a čitao sam izveštaj kako ih ima 5 i da samo čekaju da se donese odluka u SB...ne bi me čudilo da je među njima Egipat...

Mislim da je to i Dabbashi rekao, spomenuo je 5 arapskih zemalja (pred kraj snimka koji sam stavila, samo se ne čuje dobro pitanje)

[Budja]

Ne verujem da bi dodao to "and perhaps beyond" da znaci samo praznu retoriku. Ipak, verovatno je da ta rezolucija nece biti usvojena u SB UN i onda ostaje pitanje je li USA voljna da uvede NFZ i bez toga. UK i F bi, ocigledno, bile spremne, ali ne bez ucesca Amerikanaca.

UK nema sanse da ide na NFZ bez rezolucije SB UN. To bi, fakticki, bio kraj Vlade. Ionako se LibDems koprcaju samo bi im jos to falilo.Uostalom, neko je vec citirao Hejga koji je mudro rekao da je sama pretnja NFZ smanjila potencijalne zlocine Gadafija.

[MancMellow]

UK nema sanse da ide na NFZ bez rezolucije SB UN. To bi, fakticki, bio kraj Vlade. Ionako se LibDems koprcaju samo bi im jos to falilo.Uostalom, neko je vec citirao Hejga koji je mudro rekao da je sama pretnja NFZ smanjila potencijalne zlocine Gadafija.

Moguće, ne znam, znam samo da su glavni lobisti u UN da se to donese i da nema šanse da idu bez Amerikanaca, sa ili bez rezolucije. Ostalo mi je nekako siva zona. Mada, kako čitam vesti, postaje mi sve izvesnije da će se rezolucija ipak doneti. Videćemo.

[Tutankamon]

3:02pm William Hague, the UK's foreign minister, says there is now nothing holding the US back on supporting calls for a no-fly zone over Libya, Reuters reports.

[MancMellow]

The US is pushing the UN to authorise not just a no-fly zone over Libya, but also the use of air strikes to stop the advance of forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi.Washington's ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, said on Wednesday that a no-fly zone would have only a limited use, and that the Obama administration was working "very hard" to pass a new resolution, which would authorise the use of aerial bombing of Libyan tanks and heavy artillery.

Nisam jedino siguran da li oni ovim zele da povecaju ili da smanje sanse da rezolucija prodje u SB... Edited March 17, 2011 by MancMellow

[Roger Sanchez]

Nisam jedino siguran da li oni ovim zele da povecaju ili da smanje sanse da rezolucija prodje u SB...

NYT priča o istome. P'sad, ako bi išli na slabiju rezoluciju, onda bi samo bezveze izlagali pilote opasnostima. If you go, go for broke!

[MancMellow]

NYT priča o istome. P'sad, ako bi išli na slabiju rezoluciju, onda bi samo bezveze izlagali pilote opasnostima. If you go, go for broke!

Pa to stoji, ali bilo koja rezolucija koja podrazumeva da "enforce" NFZ, mora podrazumevati i da smeju da tuku po aerodromima i protivavionskim sistemima, a to je vrlo široko svejedno, jer, ajd ti dokaži da odnekud nije neko gađao savezniček avione. Ali ako se ovo usvoji, Gadafi je (zasluženo) najebao samo tako...