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Peti oktobar na bliskom istoku i arapskom svetu


Gandalf

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mark ginsberg, bivsi americki ambasador u maroku, dosta dobar poznavalac situacije u severnoj africi, ima par zanimljivih teza ko sta moze i kako.

The key to Gadhafi's longevity is the city of Tripoli... Libya's capital to the west near the Tunisian border. A city controlled by Gadhafi's own tribe and by the paid allegiance of his police and mercenaries. Tonight, Gadhafi lost the crucial support of two tribes vital to his rule -- the Awlad Soweija which has Islamist extremist elements in it and is based in around Benghazi, as well as the Awlad Waffala, which is the largest tribe south of Tripoli. The loss of the latter is a devastating blow to what passes as his regime. In the event that Tripoli falls out of Gadhafi's control, Libya may descend in the short run into chaos and anarchy, since there is no one to take over unless a council of exiled democrats can come together, perhaps under the chapeau of the pretenders to deposed King Idriss. That may be Libya's best hope to prevent Libyans from having to die further once Gadhafi and his brood are banished. Memo to popular Libyans in exile: you will have to move quickly to catch the tail of this tiger before it becomes too late to do so.What is clear is that there is a strong Islamist opposition that has targeted Gadhafi in the past. Ironically, the dictator who introduced conservative Shariah values is himself the target of their ire.In this power vacuum, waiting in the wings are the remnants of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) -- now merged with Al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM). LIFG is not the Taliban. It does not have the depth and breadth of support among the key tribes. But in the wake of the lawlessness that would inevitably take hold should Gadhafi fall, Libya could easily disintegrate into tribal redoubts and Somali-type Islamist insurgency where tribalism and Al Qaeda sympathizers battle it out. Think of Afghanistan in North Africa if a simplistic analogy is called for. For the U.S., other than targeting AQIM and what emerges as the LIFG, there is little we can do to stop the bloodshed, but to stare at the gas pump as its price rises from the spectacle of oil-rich Libya imploding. No sanction or presidential condemnation from the Obama Administration will stop Gadhafi from butchering his own people. It would be more prudent for the White House to begin preparing two parallel policy tracks... for a wounded Libya with or without the man with the green book.
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Ma ne, samo imamo (a umirovljenu) Rakićku. Koja je, NB, Srpkinja, ako ćemo prebrojavat KZ. Ajde, i urednika koji joj daje termine.
A kaj su vam ove mape, izgledaju kao ono što se emitira u preko-oceanskim zrakoplovima, sviđa mi se dapače
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Ma ne, samo imamo (a umirovljenu) Rakićku. Koja je, NB, Srpkinja, ako ćemo prebrojavat KZ. Ajde, i urednika koji joj daje termine.
ova voduteljka je rakicka, jel?pa onako, malo je naporna Edited by morgana
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8.06pm: Libya's interior minister has announced his defection and urged the army to join the people and respond to their "legitimate demands" al-Jazeera has just reported.
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dok papa berluskoni prica telefonom sa gadafijem, hildog kaze

"This bloodshed is completely unacceptable," Clinton told reporters at the State Department, following reports that hundreds of people have been killed in days of unrest in Libya. "It is the responsibility of the government of Libya to respect the universal rights of their own people, including their right to free expression and assembly," she said.
ali mnogo vaznije, arapska liga zabranila libiji ucesce na sastancima i u donosenju odluka.
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Berluskoni rekao da će da ih prime... i liferuju ka Nemačkoj
jel rekao i da ce da zadrzi mladje zenskinje? ne bi me cudilo. kakav kreten. :Dpomenuli su i gradnju satorskog naselja za milion ljudi na lampeduzi. djeluje mi nestvarno mnogo.u svakom slucaju, medjunarodne institucije itekako imaju o cemu da razgovaraju ovih dana.
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