Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[MancMellow]

ma daj ovo je zajebavanje. jebote, mogao bih (mislim, znam da neću, ali nije da mi ne bi bilo pametno) da razmislim o nekim kombinacijama prodaje pa kupavine, gledam solun, ovo je jebeno džabe. 

[yolo]

drugar Grk u frci?

 

ne, drugar binsr odavde ciji je pokojni otac svojevremeno kupio neki usrani apartman u recimo stavrosu, pa sad gleda da se ratosilja toga kako zna i ume. davao je oglase ovde ali slabo, sada gleda da plasira negde gde mozda neki rus to vidi.

[aram]

ma daj ovo je zajebavanje. jebote, mogao bih (mislim, znam da neću, ali nije da mi ne bi bilo pametno) da razmislim o nekim kombinacijama prodaje pa kupavine, gledam solun, ovo je jebeno džabe. 

 

ja gledo sad ovaj yolov limnos, nije uopste zajabavanje, solidne cene. solun slabo poznajem, koji su tamo pristojni delovi za zivot?

[yolo]

ma nisu jeftina ostrva, odakle vam to. nema tamo nista dobro za manje od 1000e po m2. 

[ljakse]

ne, drugar binsr odavde ciji je pokojni otac svojevremeno kupio neki usrani apartman u recimo stavrosu, pa sad gleda da se ratosilja toga kako zna i ume. davao je oglase ovde ali slabo, sada gleda da plasira negde gde mozda neki rus to vidi.

 

hm, pravo je vreme izabrao. aj nek sačeka još malo, pa ja da uzmem je l čemu apartman?

[yolo]

ne mislis valjda da sam ikada bio u stavrosu

[MancMellow]

ja gledo sad ovaj yolov limnos, nije uopste zajabavanje, solidne cene. solun slabo poznajem, koji su tamo pristojni delovi za zivot?

 

e jbg sad kad vidim kartu znam gde sam se šetao dosta puta i kako izgleda kraj. al, mislim, malo (malo) iznad Egnatia odos je onako zeleno (za grčke uslove) i lepo, prijatno. Al suštinski i ovo malo niže univerziteta nije za baciti. Ma, mislim, sve je to faktički na peške od centra, a kako vidim ima veoma pristojnih jedinica koje bi se mogle dati nekoj agenciji da ih short-term izdaju da se kupe za tipa 700 evra po kvadratu. Mislim ima i jeftinije, ali očigledno je da je krš. 

Edited July 27, 2015 by MancMellow

[aram]

ne mislis valjda da sam ikada bio u stavrosu

 

ih, reci mi jos i da nisi nikad bio u sutomoru...

[MancMellow]

nikad stavros nikad sutomore! 

 

ni asprovalta. jbg, bolje ada :D

[hazard]

Komentar spoilera:

I, eto, levica bi fiskalnu uniju i federaciju al bez obaveza.

 

Ne znam kako si to uspeo da ucitas u Varufakisov tekst.

 

Njegova poenta je da je sustina federalizma u tome da se federalne jedinice potpuno odreknu nekih nadleznosti u korist federalne vlade ali da ostanu manje-vise neprikosnovene u nadleznostima koje nisu prenele. Je li neki federalni ministar ima pravo veta nad budzetom Ontarija? Ili neki federalni sekretar nad budzetom Ohaja? Naravno da nema. Budzet Ohaja nije nesto o cemu brinu u Vasingtonu.

 

Sojbleov plan nije federalizacija, vec neki nadnacionalni pandur koji ima pravo da fakticki kroz veto budzeta kontrolise svaki aspekt delanja neke vlade u evrozoni. Super bi to funkcionisalo...bas super.

[aram]

dok bi taj pandur bio sojble. a kad bi doso neki jorgos da turi veto na nemacki budzet bilo bi drz-ne daj

[MancMellow]

dok bi taj pandur bio sojble. a kad bi doso neki jorgos da turi veto na nemacki budzet bilo bi drz-ne daj

 

nikad ne bi dosao, zato što kapiram da bi to telo odlučivalo većinom. plan je fantastično grozan

[hazard]

Plan je tipično nemački i može se sumirati u 2 rečenice: Das ist verboten. Das ist nicht erlaubt.

[vememah]

Dixon vidi mogućnost da Grčka počne da se čupa iz problema, pre svega zahvaljujući ulasku u QE program ECB-a:

 

Implementation time
 
Hugo Dixon: The optimist’s guide to Greece
 
27 July 2015
 
There are so many ways things could go wrong in Greece that it’s easy to miss how things could also go right. The best-case scenario involves the European Central Bank including Greek bonds in its quantitative easing programme, the lifting of capital controls and a deal on debt relief – all by the end of the year.
 
This is not a prediction. Trust between Greece and the other euro zone countries has been all but destroyed. Hard-line creditors, led by Germany, will only help Alexis Tsipras, the prime minister, if he implements diligently what he has agreed. That is far from given, now that his radical-left Syriza party is splintering, even though that also gives him opportunities.
 
However, if Tsipras can rebuild trust and follow through on his commitments, there is a clear path out of misery.
 
The first step is to finalise a new deal – in particular, nailing down Greece’s fiscal targets for the next few years. Given the havoc of the past month, in which banks were closed for three weeks, Athens is not going to be able to hit the targets the creditors were previously demanding without yet more debilitating austerity.
 
If Tsipras can persuade the euro zone creditors that he is going to implement the reforms he signs up to, they may not insist on any more measures than were previously on the table either this year or next. Otherwise, he will need to find yet more tax hikes and spending cuts.
 
The sooner a new deal can be agreed, ideally by the end of August, the sooner the second step can be taken: including Greek bonds in the ECB’s quantitative easing programme.
 
When the central bank kicked off this bond-buying operation in January, it excluded Greece on the grounds that it was not implementing its previous bailout plan. But the ECB’s vice president, Vitor Constancio, said on July 16 that, once the country was in a new programme and credibly implementing it, the central bank could start buying Athens’ debt.
 
This is a potential boon for the country. If the ECB hoovers up Greek bonds, their yield will plummet. This will boost confidence. In the best-case scenario, this will occur in September, soon after a new bailout deal is clinched.
 
The third step is recapitalisation of Greece’s banks. They need more capital because the country’s economic prospects have deteriorated sharply over the past month meaning, among other things, that more of the banks’ loans will go bad. The European Commission is now predicting GDP will shrink 2 percent to 4 percent this year.
 
Athens and its creditors have pencilled in an extra 10 to 25 billion euros for the banks. The ECB, which supervises the lenders, will need to conduct a detailed assessment before coming to a precise figure.
 
Once the supervisors have picked the magic number, they will then have to decide who will provide the capital. The key question is whether there will be a “bail-in” of uninsured depositors, mainly companies with more than 100,000 euros in their accounts - forcibly converting a proportion of their money into new bank shares.
 
Such a bail-in would pulverise confidence. If Tsipras is delivering his side of the bargain, the creditors won’t insist on it. Otherwise, there is a risk that the hardliners might.
 
Recapitalising the banks is necessary to move onto the next step: lifting capital controls. Greek lenders are now open, after a three-week bank holiday. But there are still limits - in particular, on the ability of companies to import goods. This is gumming up the economy.
 
If all the restrictions were removed tomorrow, depositors would rush to take their cash out. The ECB will not be willing to provide unlimited liquidity until the banks have been recapitalised, as it does not want to lend money to bust lenders. But once their balance sheets have been reinforced, it may be prepared to risk a bank run – and, if they have been recapitalised without a bail-in, depositors will be less keen to grab their money anyway.
 
The final step is debt relief. Germany’s Angela Merkel said on July 19 that this could involve giving Athens longer to pay back its borrowings and lower interest rates. Although the headline value of Greece’s debt wouldn’t change, better terms would make the country’s borrowings more sustainable. In time, it would be able to fund itself by issuing bonds on the market rather than relying on bailouts.
 
The catch is that debt relief will be considered only after the new deal’s first review which, in the best-case scenario, would be in October. What’s more, it will be conditional upon full implementation of the programme, three years later.
 
Just imagine that Greece got all these things - quantitative easing, lifting of capital controls and a deal on debt relief – by the end of this year. The boost to confidence would go a long way to counteracting the austerity measures.
 
Of course, imagining this scenario is not the same as predicting it. Greece and its creditors have disappointed too often in the past for that.
 
Nevertheless, Tsipras’ incentives have shifted in a helpful direction. His previous confrontational approach to the country’s creditors was partly explained by his reluctance to admit to his voters that he was making a U-turn and his fear of splitting his party. Now he has eaten his words and there’s no hope of keeping Syriza united. Given that he has crossed that Rubicon, Tsipras has a strong interest in making the new bailout plan succeed.
 
http://www.breakingviews.com/hugo-dixon-the-optimist’s-guide-to-greece/21209746.article

 

Međutim, stvari ne idu tako glatko i već se pojavljuju špekulacije o novom bridge zajmu:

 

The decision to send lower-level negotiators on Monday is the latest sign of concern among Greece’s creditors that, despite the summit agreement two weeks ago to restart talks, there remain deep differences on the way forward that could still derail negotiations before an August 20 deadline.

The most contentious issue, according to officials involved in the talks, is whether Athens will need to implement additional reform measures to receive quick aid under the bailout programme.

Creditors have insisted the two rounds of reforms passed by the Greek parliament this month were prerequisites to getting the talks started. They also served as the conditions for a €7bn bridging loan from the EU that prevented Athens from defaulting on a bond owed last week to the European Central Bank.

They insist that Greek authorities will have to legislate for more reforms — known as “prior actions”, because these must be passed before aid is disbursed — to gain any payments under a new three-year bailout programme.

Athens is resisting any additional reform measures, officials said, arguing the measures already passed should be all that is required for the first tranche of aid.

“This, at present, is the big, fat, issue,” said one official involved in the talks. “They do not want to understand that there will be yet another significant package of ‘prior actions’ before any disbursement. They already have implementation fatigue after two mini-bills.”

Some eurozone countries, including Germany, are pushing for another round of “prior actions” to be passed by the Greek parliament even before a new memorandum of understanding is agreed with creditors. Officials said that if creditors decided to demand additional measures before inking the deal, they would probably serve as the “prior actions” for the first bailout disbursement as well.

 

Officials had hoped to finish an agreement by August 11, when a meeting of eurozone finance ministers has been tentatively scheduled to approve a bailout programme. The quick pace is intended to get a deal in place before Athens owes another €3.2bn on a bond held by the ECB on August 20.

But officials said the differences remained so significant that they could require the EU to agree another €5bn bridging loan so that talks could continue into the autumn. In addition to the €3.2bn needed for the ECB bond, officials said about €500m is needed for interest payments and a small loan repayment to the IMF. The remaining cash would be used to meet government wage and pension payments.

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e7e90f50-339b-11e5-b05b-b01debd57852.html

 

 

Portparolka EK izjavila da su Grčkoj potrebne dodatne reforme radi dobijanja prve tranše novog bailouta.

http://www.sigmalive.com/en/news/greece/132753/european-commission-greece-will-need-further-reforms

Pasoku blizak Etnos u nedelju je pisao o tome da Cipras razmatra zakazivanje izbora za 8.11, dok je Realnews objavio navodnu listu njegovih prioriteta, među kojima je partijski kongres i izbori na jesen ili proleće.

 

With the front-page title "7 Tsipras moves on the chessboard" Realnews reveals the "agenda for change" for the Greek PM.
According to the paper, these are the 7 initiatives that Tsipras hopes will change the political agenda in the next few months:

1. Agreement with creditors to be finalized until August 17
2. Extraordinary party conference of Syriza in September
3. Early polls by late autumn or at the latest in the spring
4. Initiatives to fight corruption and vested interests  
5. Significant changes in the political system, including constitutional reform –
6. Targeted actions in support of the weakest social groups
7. Direct foreign investment to offset recessionary tendencies.

 

http://en.enikos.gr/media/32979,7-items-on-Tsipras-agenda--Sundays-Realnews.html

 

 

 

Slično prenosi i Gardijanova atinska dopisnica Helena Smit:

 

 

Insiders say Tsipras has a road-map of sorts – one that starts with the new loan agreement being negotiated by August 18, Syriza calling an urgent party conference (which would deal with dissidents) at the end of September and elections being held on November 8.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/27/business-live-chinese-stock-market-rout-ftse-greece-live#block-55b61df9e4b0594173661b03

 

 

 

On se danas oglasio na sednici CK partije, pozvao na jedinstvo i pružio podršku održavanju kongresa, dok je Leva platforma održala miting uz Lafazanisovo obećanje da će se do kraja boriti za OXI.

Edited July 27, 2015 by vememah

[MancMellow]

 

 

Some eurozone countries, including Germany, are pushing for another round of “prior actions” to be passed by the Greek parliament even before a new memorandum of understanding is agreed with creditors. Officials said that if creditors decided to demand additional measures before inking the deal, they would probably serve as the “prior actions” for the first bailout disbursement as well.

 

Komedija. Ali ne mogu da kažem da sam iznenađen. Ovo je isti sistem kao i otvaranje poglavlja za Srbiju. Recite mi šta treba da uradim. To i to. Ok. Halo, uradio sam. Eeee, ima još nešto. To je zapravo pokazatelj da ne znaju kako se vodi visoka politika. Tako se ne vodi. Moraš ili da budeš vešt i sposoban da u inicijalni dil već ugradiš dvosmislenost, ili moraš da izmisliš ili stvoriš "nove okolnosti".