Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[Prospero]

OPINION

There is no Greek deal

Why the risks of a Grexit are now higher than before this weekend's summit.

 

By MEGAN GREENE

 14/7/15, 5:38 AM CET

 

 

You saw the headlines Monday about a deal for Greece? Well, there is no deal. There are a series of punitive and humiliating diktats from creditors that Greece must legislate into law by Wednesday or take a “time-out” from the eurozone.

 

Once these creditor demands are met, then Greece will negotiate a new bailout deal. That deal will very likely certainly be a failure for both political and economic reasons. So while the immediate risk of a Grexit from the euro may be slightly lower following this weekend’s summit of European leaders in Brussels, it is materially higher in the long run.

 

Absent from the all-night negotiations this weekend was any real buy-in from either side of the table.

 

Creditors have waxed on for years about how it is necessary for Greece to assume “ownership of the program” in order for it to succeed. Never has this been more the case than now. Any deal agreed for Greece will involve a fiscal adjustment so swingeing that Greece is likely to be in recession for at least the next two years. It will be extremely difficult for the Greek people to accept such an adjustment after five years of economic depression. The medicine will be particularly bitter for Greeks to swallow given that the majority of people rejected such measures a week ago in a referendum. Wolfgang Münchau sums it up best when he asks: “Do you really think that an economic reform programme, for which a government has no political mandate, which has been explicitly rejected in a referendum, that has been forced through by sheer political blackmail, can conceivably work?”

 

* * *

There is no real buy-in for a deal on the German side either. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble went to the Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers this weekend with a proposal to give Greece a time-out. This proposal was kept in the Eurogroup conclusions — albeit in parentheses because not every country could support this approach. Even the language used, a timeout, is humiliating, as if Greece was a four-year old child that will be put on the naughty step for a few years if it does not behave. At the leaders meeting Sunday, Germany’s Angela Merkel and Tsipras concluded that a Greek exit from the eurozone was the only realistic option. This does not inspire confidence that the German Chancellor is committed to keeping the eurozone together.

 

Another consideration is the implosion of the Greek political scene the past few years. The center-right New Democracy and the socialist Pasok parties were obliterated in January elections, punished by voters for their involvement in the first and second bailouts. The Greek people gave Syriza a mandate to push back against austerity and stand up for Greek dignity.

 

In the past 48 hours, Prime Minister Tsipras has had to break every major election promise he made. The current government will struggle to survive this week, much less far into the future. It will almost certainly be unable to legislate the terms demanded by the creditors without support from the opposition parties. A coalition of national unity, led by Tsipras, is likely to emerge by the end of the week with new elections in the autumn. Political instability will get in the way of trying to push through what will be extremely unpopular and difficult measures.

 

Even if there were buy-in from Greece and the creditors for a deal and the Greek government manages to legislate the demanded reforms, it is hard to see how a government that came to power vowing to push back against austerity measures will do a better job at implementing them than previous governments that were more amenable.

 

* * *

Beyond this general skepticism, I have two main concerns.

 

First, in order to hit its primary surplus targets, Greece must boost its tax revenues. Back in 2010, it was true that many Greeks evaded taxes and so there was the hope that the tax haul could be fairly easily increased by catching more Greeks in the net. After losing one-quarter of its economy over the past five years, however, Greece is so far along the Laffer curve that an increase in taxes will be counterproductive. The issue is no longer that Greeks won’t pay taxes; rather that they can’t pay them. Tax revenues are reported in a timely manner in Greece, so we will know fairly quickly if streamlining the VAT system and broadening the tax base has any positive effect on Greek tax revenues.

 

Second, part of the financing for a third bailout is set to come from a €50 billion fund financed by Greek asset sales. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the eurozone bailout fund, will recapitalize the banks if the financing isn’t in place on time, which it almost certainly won’t be. But still it is likely the privatization fund will not come up with the cash to pay back the ESM, and so the greek government in theory will have to. Privatization has been a notoriously thorny issue for the Greek government. There have been almost as many heads of the privatization fund as actual privatization deals over the past few years. Even if Greece manages to privatize all the assets earmarked for the fund, the revenues will likely come in below target given that there will be fire sales.

 

The Greek government was badly outplayed in Brussels this weekend. Even if Greece avoids political collapse in the next week, legislates immediate measures and signs up to a third bailout with the creditors, it is unlikely that we will get too far before the third bailout goes the same way as all the others — off track. The tone and content of the negotiations over the weekend suggest it will only be a matter of months before we are back to sleepless summits in Brussels, but at that stage trust on both sides will probably be in even shorter supply than it is now.

 

Megan E. Greene is chief economist and managing director of Manulife.

 

[April]

Jeste Vaso, ali kao neko ko je ziveo u Irskoj, mogu da ti potvrdim da je stanje ipak bolje nego pre nekoliko godina. Egzodus se povecao, ali 30,000 odlazaka je malo preterano, zato sto tu ukljucuje i one koji idu nakon studija preko (obicno u Australiju ili Novi Zeland) na godinu-dve dok jos imaju Working Holiday vize. 

 

Od prijatelja i "in-laws" rodbine, stizu redovno vesti da se izlazak na bolje vidi. Zabelezili su ekonomsi rast od 4.5% i dug je pao na malo vise iznad 100% GDP - kako je bilo, ovo je ipak ozbiljan napredak, a da ce biti bolno - bice, ali sta je alternativa?

 

I to je jedina istina. Imam tamo prijateljicu koja je u vreme najcrnjih mera štednje koji su nju direktno pogodili(posao, stan, vrtić), bila sasvim ubeđena da će im disciplina doneti boljitak. I on se dogodio, ne vučićevsko - statistički dobitak, već realan, opipiljiv i golim okom vidljiv. Trenutno je na odmoru u Bg, to su vrlo sveže vesti.

[MancMellow]

 

OPINION

There is no Greek deal

Why the risks of a Grexit are now higher than before this weekend's summit.

 

By MEGAN GREENE

 14/7/15, 5:38 AM CET

 

 

 

 

naravno. ovo je samo jedan od koraka izbecivanja grcke iz evrozone. nije, politicki, moglo sada, mozda ce moci za godinu dana, kad budu u jos vecoj buli

[morgana]

varufakis duva u ledja skupstinskom odbijanju sporazuma

[Tribun_Populi]

Dosta tih ljudi nije otpusteno, vec je otislo u penziju - gde uzivaju penzije kakve Norvezani mogu samo da sanjaju, dok su ostali u stvari ljudi pod ugovorom (ne stalni zaposleni) kojima ugovor nije produzen.

 

Ne menja ništa u činjenici da je bez malo 300K ljudi iz javnog sektora ostalo bez posla. Ako ništa drugo, to je 12 (14?) plata manje godišnje, i više posla za ove što su ostali.

 

Da li ovaj grafikon pokazuje zaposlene u drzavnim firmama? Obicno se prikazuju samo direktno zaposleni u drzavnim sluzbama, a ovi zaposleni u drzavnim komapnijama se prikazuju posebno ... Cini mi sae da sam video neki grafikon po kome u totalu Grci debelo sisaju i Nemacku i Spaniju, ako se dobro secam.

 

Koliko vidim brojke, rekao bih da je u pitanju tzv. opšta država tj. sve ono što sa državom ima ikakve veze (i JP i ustanove i država/lokalna samouprava).

 

Da ovo potonje bas i nije tako ocigledno svedoci njihovo iracionalno ponovno otvaranje ugasene drzavne televizije uz silnu pompu, fanfare, vatromet, sta sve ne. Dakle, cemu uopste sluzi drzavna televizija ako ne "oblikovanju javnog mnjenja"? Sigurno ne sluzi da drzavi donese prihode...mada izvesno sluzi i da se tamo zaposle "stari partijski drugovi" i provereni kadrovi za promociju novogovora i suzbijanje zlomisli. 

 

E? Misliš da je za oblikovanje javnog mnjenja inače bolje da sve televizije u državi kontroliše nekoliko tajkuna?

[Budja]

Mnogo gotivim Simona, onaj serijal o britanskoj istoriji koji je radio za BBC je neprejebiv.

 

Docim je serijal o Istoriji Jevreja produkcijski odlican, ali jezivo pristrasan, tu se, recimo, opravdava zid prema Palestini, Spinoza maltene izdajnik i tako to.

[Budja]

Kakva glupost, veleizdaja bi bila da su krenuli ozbiljnije put Putinove zadnjice (a la kvazidrzava Srbija), pa time isprovocirali vojni puc. Za razliku od srpskog slucaja, grcka armija je respektabilna vojna sila - i to sa prilicno ofanzivnom strategijom modernizacije, naravno po NATO standardima - i verovatno daleko racionalnija od grupice populistickih avanturista koji trenutno vode glavnu rec.  

 

Logicno.

Aljende je kriv jer je isprovocirao Pinocea Morsi je kriv za hiljkade ubijenih.

 

Zasto se tu zadrzati?

I republikanci u Spaniji su isprovocirali Franka i Hitlera.

[Аврам Гојић]

Kakva glupost, veleizdaja bi bila da su krenuli ozbiljnije put Putinove zadnjice (a la kvazidrzava Srbija), pa time isprovocirali vojni puc. Za razliku od srpskog slucaja, grcka armija je respektabilna vojna sila - i to sa prilicno ofanzivnom strategijom modernizacije, naravno po NATO standardima - i verovatno daleko racionalnija od grupice populistickih avanturista koji trenutno vode glavnu rec.  

Zenit mongoloidnog rasudjivanja.

[Muwan]

I to je jedina istina. Imam tamo prijateljicu koja je u vreme najcrnjih mera štednje koji su nju direktno pogodili(posao, stan, vrtić), bila sasvim ubeđena da će im disciplina doneti boljitak. I on se dogodio, ne vučićevsko - statistički dobitak, već realan, opipiljiv i golim okom vidljiv. Trenutno je na odmoru u Bg, to su vrlo sveže vesti.

Grčka i Irska ne mogu da se porede. Grčka je po mnogo čemu poseban slučaj koji zahteva više nego obazrivo pozajmljivanje para. Tamo se 40% BDP generiše u javnom sektoru, a samim tim i 40% agregatne tražnje. Svako sakaćenje javnog sektora osakatiće agregatnu tražnju koju inače podmiruju male firme iz privatnog sektora. Te firme ne mogu da se preorijentišu na izvoz jer su suviše male a u Grčkoj (za razliku od Irske, Španije i Portugala) nema ni multinacionalki ni velikih domaćih izvoznika. Vrlo zeznuta struktura ekonomije. Kada je takva ekonomija pala 25% došlo je do kompletnog zaribavanja koje nikakvi novi porezi neće pokrenuti. Grčka jednostavno mora da dobije otpis dugova jer nije Irska - a to su oni što su joj zajmili šakom i kapom odlično znali.

 

Ako je Latinska Amerika dobila otpis onih užasnih dugova, ako ga je čak i Nemačka dobila, onda treba da ga dobije i Grčka. Štaviše, čitava PIIGS grupa treba da ga dobije, ako ne i čitava evrozona. Zajmodavci treba da snose svoj deo odgovornosti za loše plasmane. Tako stvari funkcionišu u privatnom sektoru, tako su tradicionalno funkcionisale i u suverenom sektoru i ovo nemačko glupiranje tu neće ništa promeniti niti će pomoći Grčkoj da se izvuče iz bule.

[Аврам Гојић]

ljudi ja ove podatke o Irskoj nisam izmislio. 

[Budja]

ljudi ja ove podatke o Irskoj nisam izmislio. 

 

Tvoji podaci jesu tacni i oni nisu nuzno u koliziji sa Aprilovim i Dragancetovim prijateljima.

 

Prosto, srednjoj klasi i profesionalcima je bolje, onima ranjivijim je losije.

 

Tako je i u Britaniji gde se budzetska disciplina, recimo, trenira na disabled persons i smanjivanju njihovih prinadleznosti.

[Аврам Гојић]

Tvoji podaci jesu tacni i oni nisu nuzno u koliziji sa Aprilovim i Dragancetovim prijateljima.

 

Prosto, srednjoj klasi i profesionalcima je bolje, onima ranjivijim je losije.

 

Tako je i u Britaniji gde se budzetska disciplina, recimo, trenira na disabled persons i smanjivanju njihovih prinadleznosti.

 

Znam, i to pokazuje varljivost makroekonomskih uspeha. Prosto, ne mozemo reci da je Irskoj bolje ako je jednom celom, zamasnom sloju - losije. Bolje je srednjoj klasi i profesionalcima, ne Irskoj. Austerity produbljuje disparitet izmedju siromasnih i bogatih, ukida stecena prava, dovodi do porasta siromastva. Irska je odlican primer, bas zbog drasticnih brojki, narocito kada su deca u pitanju.

Edited July 14, 2015 by Грешни Василије

[Budja]

Je l razume neko sta ovaj prica?

 

 

 

Syriza spokesman: MPs should not join the "coup"

Syriza parliamentary group spokesman Nikos Filis has urged MPs to support Tsipras -- warning that they would otherwise be allying with Greece’s enemies in Brussels.

He told reporters:

“Wasn’t what happened in Brussels a coup? What happened? Didn’t they say, either this deal or we take Greeks’ deposits and the banks go bankrupt? The government came under threat from economic and political forces that do not forgive the Greek people for making a different choice.

I think that, often, we facilitate these plans. We cannot end with a left interregnum with the complicity of people of the left.”

[Muwan]

Pa i mojim kolegama sa Kifisije je super. Rade za multinacionalku, imaju platu i posao, zabole ih da se upuštaju u avanture sa drahmom a mislim da ih donekle zabole i za svoje sunarodnike koji nemaju tu sreću da ih plaća dobra multinacionalka. I sad na osnovu njihovog iskustva i stava ja treba da tvrdim kako je austerity jedini put koji mora da se sprovede makar palo nebo. Malkice mi je to klimavo.

[Budja]

Gledam nesto Fejsbuk.

 

Dakle, moji prijatelji su prvo glasali za Sirizu, pa onda za NAI, pa sada brane Ciprasa i linkuju onaj konfuzni clanak koji je Vasa postavio o uspravljenim Grcima ali Grcima koji nece da budu mucenici. Totalna konfuzija u glavama. No, to je opet neka urbana srednja klasa. Niti su u Kifisiji niti predstavljaju onih 60% koji su spolja nevidljivi.