Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[Kreator]

i merkel je ispala prevarant :o

zasto? jel i ona imala referendum? :D ili mozda jos neku jacu demokratsku odluku koju je pogazila?

[morgana]

referendum je glup potez, ali ni na koji nacin nije obavezujuc. tj obavezujuc je jednako kao merkelino obecanje da nema nikakvih olaksica za grcku.

 

nemoj da padas na medijski narativ, bilo o glupom ciprasu, bilo o fasisti sojbleu.

 

mos mislit, covjek posao od ostre pozicije pa ispregovarao losiju. tj svi.

Edited July 13, 2015 by morgana

[vememah]

Finac počinje da pravi odstupnicu:

 

0805- Finnish PM says government to "carefully evaluate if new Greek proposal is sufficient for ESM negotiations"

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/13/eurozone-greece-latest-idINL8N0ZR0TG20150713

[Kreator]

cekaj, cekaj, zar u ovim pregovorima kreditori nisu dobili sve sto su trazili + jos neke dodatne stvari koje nisu bile ranije u opticaju? mozda nisam uspeo sve ovo dobro da ispratim, da li moze neko na jednu stranu da stavi grcku i njene pocetne pozicije i kreditore sa druge strane i njihove zelje, a ispod toga rezultat pregovora i da se to nekako izvaga ko je kako prosao?

[morgana]

cekaj cetvrtak pa cemo vidjeti, pominje se restrukturiranje duga u najmanju ruku, a sam iznos bejlauta je veci nego onaj pominjan prije pola godine kao sto su i grcki ekonomski rezovi s druge strane ostrije

Edited July 13, 2015 by morgana

[Budja]

Cinizam na stranu, Grci su sami rekli da kad uključe sve živo što još nisu prodali mogu da namaknu 20 milijardi u taj fond. Da vidimo odakle će im biti sugerisano™ da nadju još 30.

 

Ovo sve treba da sprovodi neka vlada u Atini a ja ne vidim kako će aktuelna vlada sastaviti još nedelju dana u kabinetu posle ovoga. Znači, idu novi izbori pa ako ne bude iznenadjenja onda u neku, kao, primenu tamo od septembra/oktobra a do tada će biti potreban bailout od 100 milijardi pa će verovatno i ovaj luksemburški fond morati malo da se naduva.

 

Sve u svemu ima još ohoho krivina na kojima sve ovo može da padne, i verovatno će pasti, i verovatno Nemci znaju da će pasti i da će se na kraju ići na ono što je zaista cilj a to je izbacivanje. Ali pre toga će tako brutalno unakaziti levicu kao ideju, da će birači širom Evrope masovno da se okrenu desničarenju. A to je idealno tlo za ordnung und disziplin ideologiju.

 

Blago si nam svima zajedno.

 

Beowl, za unakazivanje levice su potrebne dve strane.

Da su Cipras i ekipa i politicki i tehnicki profesionalniji takvo unakazivanje se ne bi desilo.

Ovo se desava kada se politika svede na kuknjavu i simbolicke gestove iza kojih ne stoji ni mrvica "radikalizma".

[Prospero]

referendum je glup potez, ali ni na koji nacin nije obavezujuc. tj obavezujuc je jednako kao merkelino obecanje da nema nikakvih olaksica za grcku.

 

nemoj da padas na medijski narativ, bilo o glupom ciprasu, bilo o fasisti sojbleu.

 

mos mislit, covjek posao od ostre pozicije pa ispregovarao losiju. tj svi.

 

S tim da nisu svi pregovarači u jednakim pozicijama, ni bili a ni došli u, niti sa približno istim ulozima. 

 

 

 

Mogu misliti kako će se procenjivati elektroprivreda u ovoj situaciji:

 

Powering down Greece

Greeks don't like to pay taxes, and they also aren't keen on paying for power, causing huge problems for the country's biggest utility.

 

By KALINA OROSCHAKOFF

 

13/7/15, 5:30 AM CET

 

 

The banking crisis set off by last month’s snap referendum announced by Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is wreaking havoc on the country’s biggest utility, Public Power Company S.A. (PPC), because even fewer customers than usual are paying their power bills. The company is seeing a shortfall of about €20 million a day, said Thucydides Koukoulios, with Pöyry Management Consulting, an energy consultancy.

 

“The further reduction of cash inflows means that PPC has to rely on their cash reserves,”  he said, which creates difficulties for its operations. Because of the cash squeeze, PPC is contemplating withholding a €200 million down payment for a new €1.5 billion coal-fired power plant in order to free up funds, according to the Kathimerinini daily. There have also been reports of problems in mining operations as a result of capital controls.

PPC is the biggest power producer and electricity supplier in Greece with approximately 7.4 million customers. The company holds assets in lignite (or brown coal) mines, power generation, transmission and distribution. It controls almost all the retail electricity market and accounts for about two-thirds of Greece’s electricity output.

“We don’t have the full picture about the past two weeks, but the situation is obviously an emergency condition,” Sotiris Chatzimichael, head of the Strategy Directorate at PPC, told POLITICO. “People don’t have access to their money. The electricity bill is not their first priority.”

Paying energy bills

The dramatic situation is only the latest symptom of a long-running crisis for PPC, which has struggled with customers being either unwilling or unable to pay for bills for years. The Greek government has similar problems with getting people to pay their taxes. Earlier this year, the company announced it was sitting on a mountain of unpaid bills worth €1.9 billion. That’s more than its market capitalization of just over €1 billion, according to Bloomberg. In 2014 it had revenues of €5.8 billion.

“Of course this is not money we consider lost, it’s unpaid bills,” said Chatzimichael. “Nevertheless it presents a huge cash flow problem for PPC on top of all the others.”

The company also noted that it has had to provision €374 million for customer bad debts.

With banks still shuttered, cash withdrawals limited to €60 a day, and capital controls, Greeks have more on their minds than paying their bills.

“Liquidity issues can be as much the result of an inability to pay – due to the capital controls or a lack of funds — or a desire to maintain as much cash as possible in the current uncertain environment,” said Anastasios Giamouridis, a senior consultant at Pöyry.

For now PPC is able to deal with the crisis, Chatzimichael said, but added, “PPC is an industry and as an industry we have hundreds of contracts — money changes hands every day.” If the crisis continues and the banking situation does not improve, “obviously the situation will deteriorate.”

There is hope that the immediate problem will abate if Greece manages to unlock a bailout program which allows banks to reopen.

“If the government manages to strike a deal with creditors, we expect the situation to come back to a more normal everyday situation,” Chatzimichael said.

That would help with the short-term, but in an economy that has contracted by a quarter over the last five years, and where unemployment is 25 per cent and expected to rise, the issue of people having problems paying for power will continue.

“What would be relatively probable, of course, is that the people don’t pay for their power but the power continues to flow. Otherwise it’s not politically tenable,” said Christian Egenhofer of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

Is power a right or a privilege?

In Greece, electricity supply is as much a political as an economic issue. Power is treated less as a straightforward commodity, and more as a public good.

PPC, in which the Greek government holds a 51 percent stake, was included in a privatization scheme the previous, conservative-led government had agreed with the so-called troika, the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank, to pull the country out of its economic crisis.

But Tsipras’s populist government halted the privatization after taking power in January. Now eurozone finance ministers, according to a draft, are demanding that Greece privatize its electricity transmission grid as one of a series of commitments before getting a bailout. That may cause a fight as the country’s energy minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis, is a fiery leader of the ruling Syriza party’s left wing, and staunchly opposed to agreeing to austerity reforms in return for financial help.

Resistance to change and liberalization have been strong for years, particularly from unions and PPC employees who fear for their jobs, according to the Greek Energy Forum, a network of Greek energy professionals.

“Taking into account that the current government has a generally hostile attitude towards liberalization of any resource market, I think its highly unlikely that privatizations in energy sectors will get through,” said Eva Kaili, a Greek MEP and a member of the S&D group who sits on the European Parliament’s energy and industry committee. “Our minister of energy has said on many occasions that he believes energy is a field that has to be state-owned and state-controlled.”

Despite PPC’s financial problems, a major disruption to Greece’s power supply is unlikely, said Giamouridis.

About 70 percent of the country’s power comes from locally-mined lignite and renewables such as hydro, wind, and solar. Greece’s ability to continue to use those sources would remain relatively unaffected, even if talks with creditors collapse and the country is forced out of the euro.

[Budja]

referendum je glup potez, ali ni na koji nacin nije obavezujuc. tj obavezujuc je jednako kao merkelino obecanje da nema nikakvih olaksica za grcku.

 

nemoj da padas na medijski narativ, bilo o glupom ciprasu, bilo o fasisti sojbleu.

 

mos mislit, covjek posao od ostre pozicije pa ispregovarao losiju. tj svi.

 

Morgana, da uopste nije pregovarao imao bi bolje uslove. 

Ove reci o dostojanstvu su kao Slobine da je pobedio NATO, one o uslovima za rast kao Slobine da je sacuvana vojna tehnika.

 

Ovo je brutalan poraz za koji je svojom nesposobnoscu i kukaviclukom jednim delom sam kriv.

[morgana]

pa naravno da nisu svi u jednakim pozicijama, ogroman gap u kolicini moci je osnovna postavka ovdje. to ne mijenja rezon.

 

edit, koje bolje uslove, budjo? manje rezove uz bar 6x manje para?

 

samo da se ogradim, ja ne mislim da je cipras pregovarao idealno, niti znam sve uslove i moguce ishode pregovora, nego kazem da je u boljoj poziciji nego da je prihvatio ono sto mu se u startu nudilo.

Edited July 13, 2015 by morgana

[Budja]

cekaj cetvrtak pa cemo vidjeti, pominje se restrukturiranje duga u najmanju ruku, a sam iznos bejlauta je veci nego onaj pominjan prije pola godine kao sto su i grcki ekonomski rezovi s druge strane ostrije

 

 

Dakle u odnosu na nepovoljan predlog grcke vlade od cetvrtka imamo:

 

1. Privatizacije koje idu bankarima.

2. VAT za sve u istoj stopi.

3. Reformu radnog zakonodavstva a la Vulin.

4. Jace srozavanje penzija.

 

Sto se bejlauta tice, pominjala se cifra do 50 mlrd., ali je konacno odobreno 35  mlrd. Restuktuiranje pominje Cipras, onako generalno. Otpisa nema ni u naznakama.

[morgana]

smanjivanje penzija koje su ispod nekog nivoa ce vjetovatno nekako da se kompenzuje

 

u pomenuti fond nemam blanko povjerenja i ne volim njemacku razvojnu banku koja je uz evropske institucije njegov osnivac (a potpisnik je i francuska, tj ako govorimo o luksemburskom fondu) ali uz dobru regulativu ne vidim da je on problem, osim principijelno. vidjecemo.

 

restrukturiranje je nagovijestila i merkel.

Edited July 13, 2015 by morgana

[vememah]

Bailout je 82-86, 35 je Junkerov frontloaded paket za rast.

[Kreator]

cekaj cetvrtak pa cemo vidjeti, pominje se restrukturiranje duga u najmanju ruku, a sam iznos bejlauta je veci nego onaj pominjan prije pola godine kao sto su i grcki ekonomski rezovi s druge strane ostrije

nemoj pogresno da me shvatis, ja sam navijao za ciprasa u ovoj prici :(

 

jedino da izvuce stvarno nesto od ovoga boldovanog, ali ne verujem. mislim da je u pravu budja, na zalost :(

[vememah]

Celo saopštenje sa samita dostupno ovde (izvorni PDF):

http://t.co/XG1K5l4sdD

 

Potvrda da MMF ostaje u igri.

Edited July 13, 2015 by vememah

[Eraserhead]

Meni jedino nejasno u svemu ovome jeste poenta onog referenduma