Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[Prospero]

Zanimljivo (tj čudno pravilo) ako je tačno

 

 

 

Možda može biti problem, mada se čini da će vladajuća koalicija imati sama većinu.

[vememah]

Grčkoj će trebati možda i 14 milijardi evra samo da dovede banke u red.

 

Greek banks need 14 bln euros in capital even with a deal-source

ATHENS, July 10 | By George Georgiopoulos and Stephen Grey

Greece's banks will need an estimated 10 to 14 billion euros of fresh capital to keep them afloat and more time before they reopen even if a deal is reached with European creditors on Sunday, a senior Greek banker told Reuters on Friday.

Shut for two weeks, banks have relied on an ECB-approved emergency credit line from the domestic central bank to dispense rationed cash and are due to reopen on Tuesday, barring another extension of the bank holiday.

Despite their having bled more than 34 billion euros of deposits since December and Greece's worsening economic outlook, banks are optimistic that branches can be reopened by the end of next week, the banker said.

"Liquidity is assured at the daily 60 euro withdrawal limit until Monday night," the banker said, declining to be identified. "There is a cushion of about 750 million euros until then."

National Bank, Piraeus, Eurobank and Alpha, which account for about 95 percent of the industry, will likely need to be recapitalised after an assessment by regulators and are not likely to return to a semblance of normalcy for months.

"There is an estimated need of about 10 to 14 billion euros in new capital," the banker said. "Given the magnitude of the shock we have been through, regulators will take stock of the situation and the impact on non-performing loans. A stress test by September would allow time for things to normalise."

Athens would seek to raise the money from private investors, but if it proves futile, banks may get a capital injection from the European Support Mechanism's Direct Recapitalisation Instrument (DRI), a new facility which has so far been unused.

It is unclear yet what conditions would be imposed by the ESM in return for such capital, although it is expected to involve a commitment to major restructuring of the Greek financial sector.

The European Stability Mechanism declined to comment on options in Greece but has made clear the rules for its new re-capitalisation instrument are stringent and capital from European taxpayers will only be injected after a "bail-in" of the bank's own resources, as well as a contribution from a national resolution fund.

A bail-in could involve cash calls from bank shareholders, haircuts to bondholders, or potentially haircuts to some depositors, as in the case of Cyprus two years ago, although the Greek government says it opposes this.

Banks expect that a deal on Sunday will prompt the ECB to pump liquidity into the system and raise the cap of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) from a current 89 billion euros, allowing banks to draw funding from the Bank of Greece.

Without an agreement with creditors on Sunday, the ECB would keep the liquidity taps closed and banks would face insolvency and nationalisation if the country leaves the euro.

"The liquidity problem will be solved, the challenge will be the recapitalisation, the speed at which capital can be replenished," the banker said.

Banks have been struggling to keep their automated teller machine (ATM) networks fed with banknotes and dispense cash at the daily withdrawal limit, gradually using up the remaining cash buffer in the system.

"The ATM outflows have averaged about 80-100 million euros a day but there have been inflows from tourists, supermarkets and exporters," the banker said, adding the Greek central bank had renewed its request for 6 billion euros in emergency funding from the ECB.

On top of the cash paid out in ATMs every day in Greece there is also 50 million euros in authorised transfers abroad daily for essential imports, despite capital controls.

The banker projected a much faster pace of normalisation for the sector than was the case in Cyprus, where capital controls lasted for two years, although there are doubts whether Greece's banking system can emerge from the financial shock without an overhaul.

"This is not Cyprus. Once an agreement is reached with creditors and financing for the next three years, the situation will normalise faster than in Cyprus," the banker said, adding that controls could start to be lifted "as early as within a fortnight."

"Once banks are perceived to be solvent, this will influence the speed of their return to normality and capital controls can be lifted faster as deposits come back."

While European officials predict major consolidation in the sector, which may see some Greek banks taken over by stronger rivals as part of a restructuring that would follow a bailout of the country, the banker said mergers of the big four would be opposed in Athens.

Provided the banks were solvent, "it is important to have competition in the system."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/10/eurozone-greece-banks-idUSL8N0ZQ1GX20150710

[Tribun_Populi]

Evropa (cela) bi prezivela kratkotrajnu i duboku recesiju. Ali bi mnogo brze izasla na daleko zdravijim osnovama i sa mnogo bolje naucenim lekcijama. Ono sto smo umesto toga dobili je da jug ostavljen na aparatima da se mrcvari kako ne bi doslo do sloma koji bi srusio na kratko vreme i sever. I agonija se nastavlja.

 

Isuviše radikalno te samim tim i nerealno rešenje. Ili federalizacija i okupljanje pod jedan federalni budžet, pa na kontu toga SFRJ style redistribucija uz jasna pravila igre i FedMinFin sa nadzornim ovlašćenjima, ili totalni raspad. Ova igrarija ne daje rezultate, niti će, ovo su neka kratkoročna ad hoc rešenja.

[vememah]

mada se čini da će vladajuća koalicija imati sama većinu.

 

#Greece gov't in risk of losing parl majority. They can afford up to 12 No votes. It looks like No votes are now between 6 and 8.

The bill will pass. But if they don't get the minimum parl majority votes from their own parties, gov't has to resign.

If gov't does not get 151 votes from coalition parties, Tsipras will hv to resign and the President will have to give a mandate to ND!

 

https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/619525367066423296

https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/619527601175031808

https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/619529384077225985

Edited July 10, 2015 by vememah

[Anduril]

Deo resenja svakako nije sovinisticko krilo CDU koje smatra da pravoslavne zemlje kulturoloski ne spadaju u EU (Sojble mi se cini blizak bas tom krilu...). Da to krilo postoji i da upravo to je njihovo rezovanje, i oni zale sto su Grcka, Rumunija i Bugarska kako oni vide zbog americkih strateskih interesa primljene u EU a 1 Srbiju i ostale tek ne zele da vide u EU nikad.

A kulturoloski problem korupcije i neodgovornosti kod nas kao ne postoji? Pa naravno da necemo nikad uci ako to ne resimo.

 

Oko ovog drugog, razlika izmedju onih koje predstavlja Gajtner i onih koje predstavlja Sojble je cena koju placaju za svoje greske sto ti je u srcu koncepta odgovornosti. Vol strit i City nisu platili skoro nista za sve prevare dok su ovi drugi platili, placaju i jos ce se naplatiti u buducnosti. Grcki profiteri isto tako nista nisu platili. Nebo i zemlja.

Ti znas da racunas pa nam reci koliko kostaju negativne kamate i QE zbog juga EU na onoliku stednju na severu.

[Prospero]

 

 

Syriza’s Left Platform calls for Grexit -PHOTOS

First entry: 10 July 2015 - 15:37 Athens, 12:37 GMT

Last update: 15:37 Athens, 12:37 GMTPolitics

Syriza’s hardliners have called on Alexis Tsipras to reject the blackmail of the creditors and adopt a program that would eventually lead to the adoption of a national currency.

The 4-page declaration prepared by five lawmakers of the Left Platform and distributed in the ruling party’s parliamentary group, criticizes Tsipras for failing to prepare the party and the country for a move away from the Eurozone.

The declaration signed by Stathis Leoutsakos,  Antonis Ntavanelos, Sophie Papadogiannis,  Costas Lapavitsas and Thanasis Petrakos calls on the to implement a bridging program for the transition to a national currency.

Referring to the referendum, the lawmakers say: "The referendum demonstrated the will of the people for the final rejection of austerity regardless of the dilemmas raised by the foreign and the domestic establishment."

Despite the hard line adopted by the hard left within the governing party, correspondents say that they will eventually support the government because they do not want to be blamed for Syriza’s possible  collapse.

[svashtabezneshto]

A kulturoloski problem korupcije i neodgovornosti kod nas kao ne postoji? Pa naravno da necemo nikad uci ako to ne resimo.

 

 

 

 

Zezaš za ovo?

Kulturološki problem korupcije?

Bila sam ubeđena da je to sistemski a ne kulturološki problem.

Tamo gde sistem nije jak, korupcija je prisutna.

Tamo gde je sistem mnogo jak, često je institucionalizovana.

[Anduril]

Reforme da, kresi rashod, dizi porez. To su "reforme". Vucicevske. Dinkicevske.

 

Juznoj Evropi svakako trebaju prave reforme, treba im prava liberalizacija, razbijanje klijentelizma, itd. Sve se slazem. Samo sto je takve stvari jako jako jako tesko sprovoditi kada istovremeno sprovodis austerity. To smo videli u praksi. Temeljna reforma radnog zakonodavstva u trenutku kada zbog stednje nezaposlenost skace u nebo - to je nemoguce sprovesti politicki. Dzabe sva objasnjavanja da na dugi rok to nezaposlenost obara, u situaciji kada svako ko jos uvek ima posao samo gleda kako da ga ne izgubi. Ili deregulacija odredjenih profesija ili trzista, to bas ide glatko kada ti ekonomija srlja na dole. Aha.

 

Ono sto je trebalo da se uradi da se odmah otpisu neotplativi dugovi mnogih drzava - Grcke, Italije, Spanije, Portugalije. Zapravo, neki od tih dugova - Irske i Spanije npr. - ne bi ni bilo da te drzave nisu naterane da preuzmu privatni dug svog bankarskog sektora. Te drzave bi onda svakako prosle neku vrstu "stednje" jer bi morale da kresu rashode, ali bar ne bi morale da dizu poreze (jer ne bi bilo duga da im visi nad glavom). Banke je trebalo pustiti da propadnu. Sve, ako treba. Drzave su tu trebale da ulete da osiguraju da taj slom ne bude previse haotican. I da garantuje osigurane uloge - sve do limita. I ECB da "stampa" pare ako treba da pokrije to. Ali to, ne i nenaplative dugove raznih drzava i banaka.

 

Evropa (cela) bi prezivela kratkotrajnu i duboku recesiju. Ali bi mnogo brze izasla na daleko zdravijim osnovama i sa mnogo bolje naucenim lekcijama. Ono sto smo umesto toga dobili je da jug ostavljen na aparatima da se mrcvari kako ne bi doslo do sloma koji bi srusio na kratko vreme i sever. I agonija se nastavlja.

 

Gde si to cuo da recimo liberalizacija, smanjenje korupcije, birokratije i razbijanje klientelizma tokom krize i stagnacije generalno politicki nije moguce?

Pa upravo to stvara radna mesta i to ne posle 5 godina nego odmah.

Ono si hteo da kazes je da to nije politicki moguce u jednoj Grckoj upravo zbog vec spomenutih kulturoloskih odlika.

Zemlje istocne Evrope su sve zajedno prosle kroz mnogo veci pakao i rezanje pa sada stoje mnogo bolje i ne zale se iako im je standard i dalje mnogo nizi od Grckog a korupcija i sve ostalo manje.

[harper lee]

A kulturoloski problem korupcije i neodgovornosti kod nas kao ne postoji?

 

Ovaj topik je izvanredan, steta sto ga povremeno prosaraju ovakvi rasisticki ispadi.

[Anduril]

Zezaš za ovo?

Kulturološki problem korupcije?

Bila sam ubeđena da je to sistemski a ne kulturološki problem.

Tamo gde sistem nije jak, korupcija je prisutna.

Tamo gde je sistem mnogo jak, često je institucionalizovana.

 

Pa naravno da je i sistemski i kulturoloski ako traje vec toliko dugo i ako ide kroz sve pore drustva. 

Grcka kao i Srbija imaju taj problem vec od kada postoje kao nezavisne drzave.

I to je deo turskog nasledja a uz odsustvo neke duze pravno-birokratske tradicije. 

[Anduril]

Ovaj topik je izvanredan, steta sto ga povremeno prosaraju ovakvi rasisticki ispadi.

 

Pusti to nego reci nam nesto vise o paljenju Brisela i Strazbura.

Prosvetli nas i o rasizmu - posebno o onom delu gde se zalazes za dizanje zida prema Albancima.

[aram]

Ovaj topik je izvanredan, steta sto ga povremeno prosaraju ovakvi rasisticki ispadi.

+1

 

al dobro, anduril je to, sta smo i mogli ocekivati. jos samo uki da se ukljuci...

[Meazza]

Pa naravno da je i sistemski i kulturoloski ako traje vec toliko dugo i ako ide kroz sve pore drustva. 

Grcka kao i Srbija imaju taj problem vec od kada postoje kao nezavisne drzave.

I to je deo turskog nasledja a uz odsustvo neke duze pravno-birokratske tradicije. 

 

Znaci, Turcima je korupcija u kulturi? Siguran si u ovo i umes da obrazlozis?

[hazard]

Pa naravno da je i sistemski i kulturoloski ako traje vec toliko dugo i ako ide kroz sve pore drustva. 

Grcka kao i Srbija imaju taj problem vec od kada postoje kao nezavisne drzave.

I to je deo turskog nasledja a uz odsustvo neke duze pravno-birokratske tradicije. 

 

Objasni nam to ,,tursko nasledje" u Italiji recimo

[aram]

ajde ne hranite trola, molim vas