Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[MancMellow]

in a nutshell

 

[Eraserhead]

uslovi kreditora su bili poklon za Citigroup. preferencijalna kupovina deonica po ceni koja je u to vreme bila sjajna za propalu banku.

FED je bailoutovao sve velike banke u tom trenutku. Neke od tih banaka nisu uopste trebale bailout ali su bile primorane da prihvate dogovor. Doduse celo to poredjenje nije adekvatno iz mnogo razloga.

[porucnik vasic]

Djavo ne spava, Vaso, a te se na izgled neverovatne stvari u koje niko normalan ne bi poverovao - zaboravljamo - dogadjaju ocas posla, dok dlanom o dlan.

Jedno je bila noc subota na nedelju sa sve referendumom i ocekivanjima, nesto sasvim drugo ce da bude ova noc, a pogotovo budjenje, kad takozvanom prosecnom Grku pocne da se dogadja svastanesto.

Zivi bili pa videli: imace ko da podgreje stvari ako krenu naopako, ako se zalaufa svegrcki stampedo, a vec nocas se pojavljuju fraze tipa 'vaditi grcki narod koga je u govna uvalila losa vlada...'

A podela dole ne fali, ne brigaj.

Ма какав бре пуч. Ти напосто живиш у неим '60-тим. 

[ObiW]

Pa dobro, jos niko nije pomenuo Hitlera i referendum. To je jos uvek napredak. No, ocekuje se uskoro.

Ja sam zaprepascen da se i Veliki Satana slabo spominje. Zar on ne profitira uvek i svuda?

[Eraserhead]

Malo me ipak raduje sto cemo videti kako ta alternativa austeritiju izgleda.

[svashtabezneshto]

Način na koji likuješ nad nečijom mogućom propašću je nemoguće rečima opisati, a ostati u granicama pristojne diskusije.

[Indy]

Mene zapanjuje da diskutanti o kojima imam visoko mišljenje i dalje odgovaraju na postove dotične individue.

[Eraserhead]

Način na koji likuješ nad nečijom mogućom propašću je nemoguće rečima opisati, a ostati u granicama pristojne diskusije.

 

Pa koj moj onda ovolika podrska OXIju ako je to propast? Zaista ce biti zanimljivo videti kako ce drugaciji put proci. Ja se nadam da ce se ispostaviti da su u pravu iako se ne slazem sa njihovim izborom i celom teorijom koja stoji iza toga. Oni su izabrali i treba postovati taj izbor. 

Edited July 6, 2015 by Eraserhead

[Skyhighatrist]

Mene zapanjuje da diskutanti o kojima imam visoko mišljenje i dalje odgovaraju na postove dotične individue.

+1

[Eraserhead]

Economist sa postreferendumskom analizom. Deluje da oni ocekuju Grexit pre nego dogovor. Posebno je zanimljivo to da nemacke socijaldemokrate imaju izgleda jos tvrdji stav prema Ciprasu nego sto je to slucaj sa Merkel. Bice zanimljivo u utorak.

 

 

 

"No" to what?

 

Greek voters have rejected austerity. Whether they meant to or not, they may find out they have also rejected the euro

 

IT WAS more than Greece's "No" campaigners could have hoped for—and it may turn out to be more than they bargained for. Alexis Tsipras, the radical left-wing prime minister, snatched an unexpectedly easy win in Sunday’s hastily arranged referendum on whether the country should compromise with its creditors, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, on a new bail-out deal. Going into the vote, opinion polls showed Mr Tsipras’s anti-austerity “No” camp just a shade ahead of “Yes” supporters, who included the main opposition parties. Yet supporters of Mr Tsipras’s fractious Syriza party rallied behind him: with more than 95% of the vote counted, "No" was ahead by 61.3% to 38.7%. The gap was so humiliatingly wide that Antonis Samaras, the former prime minister (unseated by Mr Tsipras in January) who had championed the "Yes" campaign, promptly resigned from the leadership of the centre-right New Democracy party.

 

Despite the jubilant crowds (pictured) celebrating in Syntagma Square outside parliament, it was a hollow victory for the 40-year-old Greek leader. A week ago, after he announced the referendum, Mr Tsipras had to impose a week-long bank holiday and capital controls to avert a potentially disastrous bank run. As voters trudged off to polling stations, many cash machines in central Athens had run out of money, even though depositors are only allowed to withdraw €60 ($66) a day. In a telephone call on Sunday night to Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank president, Yannis Stournaras, the Greek central bank governor, put in another plea for emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to prop up the country’s four systemic banks. If the ECB withholds such funding for Greece at Monday’s teleconference of euro-zone central bank bosses, the weakest of the four banks could collapse within days, say Athens bankers. The threat of a “Grexit” from the euro, staved off in mid-2012 when the newly-elected Mr Samaras reversed his previous course and embraced fiscal and structural reforms, is not only back; for some international analysts, it is now the most likely scenario.

 

In a televised address to the nation Sunday night, an unusually subdued-looking Mr Tsipras said he has two priorities. The first is to re-open the banks as soon as possible. (Yanis Varoufakis, the ever-optimistic finance minister, predicted they would be up and running again by Tuesday. Mr Stournaras was more cautious.) The second is to resume bail-out negotiations, this time putting on the table the contentious issue of restructuring Greece’s mountainous debt, equal to almost 180% of gross domestic product.

 

Unlike Mr Tsipras, Greece’s creditors dread the prospect of locking horns again over increases in value-added tax, pension cuts and the other reforms that have been endlessly chewed over during the past four months of negotiations.  Most of them are even less eager to consider debt relief. Last week, Mr Tsipras asked for a new two-year, €9.1 billon bail-out on less stringent terms. Winning the referendum had strengthened Greece’s hand, he claimed on Sunday. But after his anti-European blasts during the campaign, eurozone leaders, who will hold a special summit on Tuesday to discuss Greece, may prove unresponsive. On Sunday night, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, called the Greek vote “regrettable.” In a letter to the membership of his Dutch Labour party earlier in the day, he said he hoped that "honest politicians" would step forward to tackle Greece's deep-rooted problems—a formulation that made clear the contempt in which Greece's current government is held by many EU officials, not to mention many of their countries' citizens.

 

The Greeks who gave the "No" side its win on Sunday did not seem to grasp how their vote would be perceived in the rest of Europe. Dancing and partying late into the night in public squares across the country, Syriza supporters spoke of a "victory of democracy" that would create a new Europe of solidarity. Meanwhile in Germany, Sigmar Gabriel, the leader of the centre-left Social Democratic party (coalition partner to the Christian Democrats of chancellor Angela Merkel), said that Mr Tsipras had "torn down the last bridges" between Greece and Europe and that further negotiations were "almost unthinkable". The majority of Germans have long favoured a Greek exit from the euro, according to polls. For most northern Europeans, the rejection of the bail-out terms signified a demand that Greece continue to set the conditions even as it is supported by other countries' taxpayers. Mr Tsipras may claim a democratic mandate to demand a new deal, but the democratic pressures on other EU leaders might make it impossible for them to give him one even if they were so inclined.

 

Some EU leaders are still intent on resuming negotiations. On Sunday Emmanuel Macron, France's finance minister, said it was the EU's responsibility to avoid a "Versailles treaty of the eurozone"—a reference to the peace treaty after the first world war that imposed punitive terms on Germany. On Monday François Hollande, France's prime minister, is expected to press that message in a meeting with Mrs Merkel. But it may be too late to find a solution. Last month Greece defaulted on a €1.6 billion pile of loans to the IMF. On July 10th it must roll over €2 billion of short-term bonds held by Greek banks. Most critically, on July 20th Athens is due to repay €3.5 billion on a maturing bond issue to the ECB. If a new bail-out programme is not in place by then, another default seems inevitable. That would kick discussion of a Grexit into full gear. This time, it may be impossible to avert.

 

 

 

 

[Muwan]

Ovo sad već prerasta u čisto političko pitanje. Ako ECB odblokira dotok keša grčkim bankama to će biti priznanje da blokada nije imala nikakvu svrhu osim da zastraši grčke birače i tako utiče na ishod referenduma. Znači, već tu čeka 1 gorka pilulica za kršćansko-demokratske magove. Ako se blokada nastavi krenuće raspad grčkih banaka sa svim pratećim posledicama.

[Indy]

Jel si to prepis'o od Krugmana? :P

[Muwan]

Ah... Slučajnost stvarno, samo sam malo otkrio toplu vodu.

[vememah]

Nema teorije da odblokiraju ELA do dogovora, a za pregovaranje novog bailouta i uz najbolju volju potrebne su nedelje, pa se i pre referenduma špekulisalo da će uz pro-austerity tehničku vladu to jedva biti moguće završiti (uz obaveznu ratifikaciju u parlamentima pojedinih članica) do 20.

 

Državi u defaultu koja nije u bailoutu odblokirati ELA znači baciti još nekoliko desetina milijardi evra jer će Grci nakon ovoga svakako potpuno isprazniti banke dok si rekao keks čim se otvore.

 

ELA je zavrnuta zbog defaulta, ne zbog referenduma. Teško da bi Nemci imali podršku dovoljnog broja drugih zemalja da zavrnu ELA da defaulta nije bilo. To je debeli Ciprasov zajeb u tajmingu referenduma. On je morao biti gotov dosta pre eventualnog defaulta.

 

Prebrojano 100%:

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/e/public/index.html?lang=en#{%22cls%22:%22level%22,%22params%22:{%22level%22:%22epik%22,%22id%22:1}}

Edited July 6, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Bukvalno niko po medijima ne razmatra mogućnost da će ELA biti odblokirana bez dila, a on je malo verovatan s obzirom na Ciprasov mandat i na mandate drugih demokratski izabranih vlada koje novi otpis grčkih dugova ne mogu da prodaju svojim elektoratima. Razmatra se samo kada će ELA biti konačno ukinuta.

 

Štaviše, pošto će ECB biti održan nakon samita, moguće je da se čeka go-ahead za ukidanje ili pooštravanje (povećavanje kolaterala).

 

If Europe’s central bank hews strictly to its rules — which require banks to be solvent to receive loans — its Governing Council on Monday would stop providing cash to Greek banks. But the central bank’s president, Mario Draghi, who has repeatedly cited the human cost of Greece’s crisis, might be tempted to find a way around those rules, arguing that choking off financial support would thrust untold hardship upon ordinary Greeks and might send the country on its way out of the euro currency union.

And the central bank may want to wait to see what eurozone heads of state decide at an emergency summit meeting on Tuesday that was announced on Sunday night. Donald Tusk, president of the European Council — which represents European leaders — wrote in a Twitter message that the meeting would be held Tuesday at 6 p.m. “to discuss situation after referendum in #Greece.’’ Assuming that the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras attends, it would be his first meeting with his eurozone peers since the referendum on Sunday.

The summit meeting could be intended to help the European Central Bank make difficult decisions in the coming days, said one analyst, Mujtaba Rahman, the Europe director for the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy. One purpose of the summit is probably to give the E.C.B. “the political cover it needs if it decides to cut off Greece’s banking system,” he said.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/business/international/eurozone-central-bank-now-controls-destiny-of-greeces-battered-banks.html?referrer=&_r=0

 

But most important of all such gatherings will likely be the one that takes place Monday at the European Central Bank. There, the ECB’s Governing Council will discuss Greece’s monetary lifeline, the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program, which provides vital funds to the country’s financial system.

“We have long argued that the day the ECB cuts off ELA is, de facto, the day that Greece would leave the euro,” Société Générale chief economist Michala Marcussen wrote several hours ahead of the Greek referendum result.

While leaders in Athens have said they want to retain the euro as Greece’s currency, Barclays analysts posit that a Greek exit from the euro as soon as the ELA goes dry — would be a simple matter of mathematics.

“The bank liquidity crisis is likely to turn into a solvency crisis once the ECB shuts down ELA, probably no later than July 20 (when a €4.2 billion payment to the ECB becomes due),” the Barclays team wrote following initial news of the referendum’s outcome.

“Fiscal problems would become more acute; the government may be forced to issue IOUs, which effectively become a parallel currency to the euro. A new currency by the central bank of Greece is likely to eventually become necessary to inject both liquidity and recapitalize banks,” they wrote.

This, of course, begs the question as to whether the ECB will cut off Greece’s ELA on July 20 or earlier. While most analysts said such a move is unlikely this week, there is less consensus as to whether the ELA will last the month.

SocGen’s Marcussen says the ECB would wait until negotiations are completely and utterly exhausted before pulling the plug.

“It is clear that the ECB has no appetite to front-run the political process, and as long as discussions are ongoing between the Greek administration and the euro area, we consider it unlikely that the ECB would fully cut the ELA and Greek banks’ access to ECB liquidity facilities,” she wrote late Sunday.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-greece-now-leave-the-euro-watch-the-money-to-find-out-2015-07-05?mod=mw_share_twitter

Edited July 6, 2015 by vememah