Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[Sestre Bronte]

Леј са оним прозорчетом је невиђено добар, не знам шта ти смета код њега.

 

da ne ulazim u diskusiju, neka bude da sam sve pogrešno napisao, samo me interesuje gde sam rekao da mi nešto smeta 

[vememah]

Šta je bilo u Šojbleovoj glavi 2012. po tvrdnjama Obaminog tadašnjeg sekretara za finansije Gajtnera i kako se to reflektuje na trenutnu situaciju:

 

The Hard Line on Greece

JUNE 29, 2015

In July 2012, Timothy F. Geithner, the United States Treasury secretary at the time, traveled to Sylt, an island off Germany in the North Sea.

Mr. Geithner was there for a meeting with Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, who would spend his summers at his vacation home on the tiny island.

The topic was Greece.

In the home’s library, the two men spoke about Greece’s prospects and begun discussing ways for the European Union to keep the country in the eurozone.

To Mr. Geithner’s dismay, however, Mr. Schäuble took the conversation in a different direction.

“He told me there were many in Europe who still thought kicking the Greeks out of the eurozone was a plausible — even desirable — strategy,” Mr. Geithner later recounted in his memoir, “Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises.” “The idea was that with Greece out, Germany would be more likely to provide the financial support the eurozone needed because the German people would no longer perceive aid to Europe as a bailout for the Greeks,” he says in the memoir.

“At the same time, a Grexit would be traumatic enough that it would help scare the rest of Europe into giving up more sovereignty to a stronger banking and fiscal union,” Mr. Geithner wrote. “The argument was that letting Greece burn would make it easier to build a stronger Europe with a more credible firewall.”

Fast-forward three years. What Mr. Schäuble articulated that summer afternoon to Mr. Geithner is finally taking shape.

Greece is in a harrowing last-minute standoff with the European Union over whether it will remain part of the eurozone, and Greek citizens are set to make the decision in a referendum vote on Sunday. That vote is happening against a backdrop of bank runs; citizens are camped outside of banks, where capital controls now restrict the amount of money that can be removed.

Politicians and investors have been trying to “war game” the outcome. Who is bluffing? The Greeks or the European Union.

The conversation between Mr. Geithner and Mr. Schäuble gives a strong indication. As Mr. Geithner said of another conversation he had with Mr. Schäuble: “He has a clear view: Greece had binged, so it needed to go on a strict diet.”

Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Union’s executive branch, said on Monday that “the door is still open” and that he was hoping to bring Greece back to the negotiating table. But that was as far as he would go.

He was no doubt sincere in his hopes that Greece would agree to the latest proposed bailout arrangement. But this time, the Europeans have nothing left to give Greece, and any concession will only undermine the strength of those left in the eurozone — possibly inspiring other countries like Portugal, Spain and Italy to ask for even better loan terms.

A crucial decision made over the weekend had largely gone unremarked upon but is telling. The European Central Bank decided to halt an expansion of its emergency lending facility to Greek banks. That facility could have allowed the banks to continue operating without as much panic and helped avoid some of the capital controls by providing additional liquidity.

No central bank likes lending into a bank run in which it expects it will lose money, so the decision may make sense on the merits. But it also serves another purpose, one that is political.

By closing the cash spigot, the E.C.B. managed to instill additional fear and panic into the day-to-day lives of the Greek people, ahead of the vote on the referendum.

That panic could cut two ways. The Greeks could look at the lines around the banks as a warning of what’s about to come, which would undoubtedly be worse in the short term, and vote in favor of the latest bailout agreement.

Of course, they could also view the lines as further evidence of their subjugation to the eurozone and the continued austerity they would experience under the bailout, pushing them to vote against it.

The E.C.B.’s decision also has another important purpose outside of Greece: It might be a warning to countries like Spain and Italy, should they ever consider following Greece out of the eurozone — if that comes to pass.

It may seem counterintuitive, but rather than make a Greece exit easy and seamless to avoid dislocations in financial markets, the E.C.B. has the perverse incentive to make it messy and difficult to deter others.

None of this is to suggest that the E.C.B. is the source of Greece’s problems. They were largely self-inflicted. Regardless of whether you think that the creation of the euro was a terrible mistake, Europe has severely mishandled the situation in Greece.

“The economics behind the program that the ‘troika’ (the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) foisted on Greece five years ago has been abysmal, resulting in a 25 percent decline in the country’s G.D.P.,” Joseph Stiglitz, an economist and professor at Columbia University, wrote on Monday. “I can think of no depression, ever, that has been so deliberate.”

In his book, Mr. Geithner reflected on his conversations with European leaders about the measures they sought to take. “The desire to impose losses on reckless borrowers and lenders is completely understandable, but it is terribly counterproductive in a financial crisis,” Mr. Geithner said.

At one point, he told Mr. Schäuble: “You know you sound a bit like Herbert Hoover in the 1930s. You need to be thinking about growth.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/30/business/dealbook/the-hard-line-on-greece.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

 

Još jedan spektakularni snimak sinoćnjeg masovnog OXI mitinga.

 

 

Edited July 3, 2015 by vememah

[Аврам Гојић]

Meni sad nista nije jasno. 
Grci glasaju "da" u nedelju.

I sta onda? Nastavlja se sa planom koji je doziveo apsolutni fijasko?

[Indy]

Sv. Noam

 

"The policies of austerity that have been imposed on Greece were absurd from an economic point of view, and have been a complete disaster for Greece. The behavior of the Troika today is a disgrace. One can scarcely doubt that their goal is to make it clear that defiance of the northern banks and the Brussels bureaucracy will not be tolerated, and that thoughts of democracy and popular will must be abandoned. Other than power, there is no reason to continue with the shameful farce in which French and German banks profit from the suffering of the people of Greece. The debt should have been radically restructured long ago, or simply declared “odious” and cancelled. Today, Greeks are offered a miserable choice between two painful alternatives. One can only hope that their brave resistance to the brutal assault will encourage global solidarity that will save them and others from the harsh fate dictated by the masters."

[MancMellow]

Meni sad nista nije jasno. 

Grci glasaju "da" u nedelju.

I sta onda? Nastavlja se sa planom koji je doziveo apsolutni fijasko?

 

Ne. Taj plan više ne postoji. Bar tako kažu relevantni za to. 

[Аврам Гојић]

Naravno, uci ce se u pregovore o nastavku bailouta ako pobedi "da", pod uslovima koji ce za Grcku biti jos gori nego dosadasnji. 

 

I to je politicka i ekonomska zajednica u koju smo zeleli da udjemo? Neizabrana oligarhija koja ti dozvoljava da se igras politike sve dok ne dirnes u njihove vested interests i finansijske kombine?

 

OXI je stvar pristojnosti. Citam zapadnu stampu posle pauze od 4 dana, u potpunoj neverici. Klikni da vidis dedu kako place ispred bankomata, britanski turisti se brinu da li ce moci da kupuju u supermarketima posto je to sada neizmerno vazna stvar, Spiegel pise da u Grckoj nece biti vojnog udara (ajde!)... Neverovatna osionost, rasizam i imperijalna uobrazenost, da se coveku zivot smuci. 

Edited July 4, 2015 by Грешни Василије

[Sestre Bronte]

 One can only hope that their brave resistance to the brutal assault will encourage global solidarity that will save them and others from the harsh fate dictated by the masters."

 

Ja sam na malom, nereprezentativnom uzorku naleteo na stravičnu malodušnost, tipa we're doomed, tako da mi opcije brave resistance deluje baš neverovatna, a bila bi mi sercu draga.

[MancMellow]

Naravno, uci ce se u pregovore o nastavku bailouta ako pobedi "da", pod uslovima koji ce za Grcku biti jos gori nego dosadasnji. 

 

I to je politicka i ekonomska zajednica u koju smo zeleli da udjemo? Neizabrana oligarhija koja ti dozvoljava da se igras politike sve dok ne dirnes u njihove vested interests i finansijske kombine?

 

OXI je stvar pristojnosti.

 

Paradoks je u tome što OXI jeste stvar pristojnosti, ali chances are da samoj zemlji NAI može više dobrog da donese. Jer, kao što rekoh, ovo nije samo ideološka borba, njima trebaju saveznici. Očigledno je da iza kulisa postoji snažna podrška US da se dobrano skreše dug. Treba im Junkcker i, više od svega, Francuska, ali za to im treba NAI i treba im da pregovore ne vodi Cipras. Nemoj na mene da se ljutiš, ovo što sam napisao je 1 real-politički pogled. 

 

Činjenica je da bi OXI glas probudio velike simpatije i da bi Berlin i Brisel ako bi ih kaznili, a, again, chances are - kaznili bi ih, na kraju ispali jako bad guys, ali...na kratak, a možda i srednji rok niko ozbiljno ne bi ustao u njihovu zaštitu, a najebali bi najstrašnije.

 

Pričam po verovatnoćama, niko u ovoj ludnici ne može da bude siguran ni u šta. 

Edited July 4, 2015 by MancMellow

[Аврам Гојић]

Sto na tebe da se ljutim, svasta.

 

Dobro, ovo je uravnotezen pogled, ja sam od onih koji bi trcali da glasaju OXI, and to hell with consequences. pa me je bas zanimalo sta je to, u nekoliko recenica, sto bi me racionalno motivisalo da glasam za "da". Ako je americki pritisak zaista dovoljan da se izboksuje otpis (a po svemu sto citam to je apsolutno jedini nacin da se savlada ova kriza), onda vredi biti za "da".

 

Nazalost, sta god da bude ishod referenduma, poruka glasacima u celoj Evropi je da njihov glas kurcu ne vredi. 

Edited July 4, 2015 by Грешни Василије

[harper lee]

Sto na tebe da se ljutim, svasta.

 

Dobro, ovo je uravnotezen pogled, ja sam od onih koji bi trcali da glasaju OXI, and to hell with consequences. pa me je bas zanimalo sta je to, u nekoliko recenica, sto bi me racionalno motivisalo da glasam za "da". Ako je americki pritisak zaista dovoljan da se izboksuje otpis (a po svemu sto citam to je apsolutno jedini nacin da se savlada ova kriza), onda vredi biti za "da".

 

Nazalost, sta god da bude ishod referenduma, poruka glasacima u celoj Evropi je da njihov glas kurcu ne vredi. 

 

Jos jedan glas ovde za NE i to hell with consequences. Uzdrzavao sam se do sada jer se o mojoj kozi ne radi ali kad vec nisam prvi mogu i da se pridruzim. Neko mora da povuce konac i raspara ovu evropsku sarenu lazu, Evropsku Uniju birokrata, bankara, spekulanata, analiticara i eksperata opste prakse i drugih mrsomuda. Ionako ta masina za zaposljavanje birokrata ekonomske, pravne i politicke provenijencije i trosenje beskonacnih para na razne glupave projekte za busenje rupa na saksiji nece dugo, tako da se dugorocno ne gubi nista.

[porucnik vasic]

Paradoks je u tome što OXI jeste stvar pristojnosti, ali chances are da samoj zemlji NAI može više dobrog da donese. Jer, kao što rekoh, ovo nije samo ideološka borba, njima trebaju saveznici. Očigledno je da iza kulisa postoji snažna podrška US da se dobrano skreše dug. Treba im Junkcker i, više od svega, Francuska, ali za to im treba NAI i treba im da pregovore ne vodi Cipras. Nemoj na mene da se ljutiš, ovo što sam napisao je 1 real-politički pogled. 

 

Činjenica je da bi OXI glas probudio velike simpatije i da bi Berlin i Brisel ako bi ih kaznili, a, again, chances are - kaznili bi ih, na kraju ispali jako bad guys, ali...na kratak, a možda i srednji rok niko ozbiljno ne bi ustao u njihovu zaštitu, a najebali bi najstrašnije.

 

Pričam po verovatnoćama, niko u ovoj ludnici ne može da bude siguran ni u šta. 

Понекад ме зачуди као наивно посматраш целу ту јевропску причу.  Немачку Јункер и Оланд не могу ништа да натерају, поготову се то не би десило у случају позитивног резултата референдума.  

Харпер +23

[Eraserhead]

Jedino pristojno u celoj stvari bi bilo da izglasaju DA i da sednu da se dogovore sa onima koji su im vec jednom otpisali €100bn i dali nove kredite da ne bi propali. Sve ostalo je stvar politickog javasluka koji za posledicu ima ovo sto vidimo da se sada desava. EU ima gomilu mana ali je najbolja moguca alternativa koju Evropa ima i u slucaju Ove krize od 2009 je pokazala zasto je vazna kao finansijska ispomoc i garant politicke stabilnosti.

[Muwan]

Ti znači misliš da su samo nesposobni, ne i osvetoljubivi? Seti se da je Ciprasa dočekao prazan Megaro Maximou bez kompjutera, pa čak i sapuna

Taj detalj ne govori ništa o Ciprasu i Syrizi već isključivo o njihovim prethodnicima. Nema nikakvog osnova za tvrdnju da Cipras svoje aktuelne poteze povlači sa ciljem nanošenja štete nekoj narednoj vlasti.

[radisa]

Ja sve nešto mislim da što god da se izglasa na referendumu, biće kako američka administracija kaže. To je bila dobra kupovina vremena, da se uključi veliki bata i sagleda moguće probleme ako Grčka izleti napolje i podigne se dodatno neraspoloženje Grčkog naroda prema EU.

 

Opet će, po ko zna koji put iz USA da stigne ferman kako treba Evropa da se ponaša. Tačno su nedorasli evropski političari, sve više mislim da su to ljudi toliko opterećeni nekim predrasusdama, da ne mogu racionalno da posmatraju stvari u kojima odlučuju o sudbinama miloona ljudi.

[Muwan]

Nisu evropski političari baš toliko naivni (mada u poredjenju sa američkim svakako deluju kao slinava derišta). Ako posmatraš stvari iz njihove perspektive, otpis Grčkog duga sam za sebe nije nikakav problem ali postaje pilula sa cijanidom ako iza njega krenu otpisi dugova drugih, mnogo važnijih zemalja. Ako Grčka dobije otpis dobiće ga i Španija i Italija, samo to je dovoljno da razvali najveće evropske banke a zamisli da se proširi dalje na Francusku, Holandiju...

 

Evropa u Grčkoj brani svoj šuplji birokratski projekat i braniće ga koliko god bude mogla i bez obzira na to šta birači u njenim zemljama (izuzev birača u Nemačkoj naravno) kažu.