Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[Frank Pembleton]

http://rs.n1info.com/a72751/Biznis/Banke-u-Grckoj-zatvorene-na-nedelju-dana.html

60€ dnevno

 

 

Poslato sa WC šolje by BVK

Edited June 29, 2015 by Frank Pembleton

[vememah]

Otvorene berze, milanska zveknula oko 5%, pariska i frankfurtska oko 4%, a londonska preko 2%. Sad se polako donekle oporavljaju.

Edited June 29, 2015 by vememah

[gone fishing]

Ja mislim da i dalje nije jasno gde su te granice jer ovo što su presipali iz šupljeg u prazno tokom prethodnih pet godina, nisu radili iz solidarnosti već zarad viših ciljeva. Generalno, solidarnost je tokom berićetnih vremena slepa i neupitna (svi vide šta se dešava ali ih baš zabole) a kad đavo dođe po svoje onda nema više solidarisanja.

 

Nego, u vezi tih 500 milijardi... Meni je nezamislivo da u zemlji veličine Grčke (8M stanovnika, dakle red veličine Srbije ali u neuporedivo boljem položaju) javni sektor i penzije mogu da prožderu 500 milijardi evra za 30 godina. Sav njihov višak zaposlenih u javnom sektoru, i sve izdašne penzije, možeš da pokriješ sa 2-3 milijarde evra godišnje. Rekao bih da glavna lova nije ulupana tu već na drugim mestima, počev od vojske. 

kako ne mogu, pa neka su plate bile 300€ veće od realnih a penzije 200€, ajde da kažemo da je oko 3 miliona grka primalo 250€ extra svakog meseca, to je 9 milijardi godišnje, a gde su izdašne subvencije za poljoprivredu, pa silni krediti za razvoj poljoprivrede, infrastrukture i turizma koje je evropa sipala u grčku od 80-tih do 2010....

- naravno i grča vojska je pojela boga oca, zemlja sa 10 miliona stanovnika je imala 150k ljudi u uniformi i najjaču avijaciju od beča do bukurešta i od varšave do atine, jaču nego kombinovane avijacije navedenih zemalja...

[Prospero]

Vojni budžet je do krize bio na oko 7 milijardi € godišnje.

[Muwan]

Da li su im u to ulazile strategijske™ nabavke?

[Prospero]

Većina verovatno da (možda oni najskuplji ne u smislu cene nabavke, ali da u smislu potonjeg održavanja), to se sve ionako plaća na krš rata.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Prospero

[vememah]

neka su plate bile 300€ veće od realnih a penzije 200€

 

200 evra za penzije je ja mislim premalo s obzirom na rana penzionisanja i astronomske iznose. Evo jednog koji duže prima penziju, i to masnu, nego što je radio.

 

Michalis Hadji-Athanasiadis, 84, a former police officer who had retired aged 50, said his pension had shrunk from €1,600 a month to €1,000 a month, and his extra benefits had been cut. But his pension was still far higher than the shrinking salary of his 52-year-old daughter who was a high-school teacher and who, like her brother and his wife, still lived with their parents to make ends meet.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jun/25/greek-crisis-bailout-talks-resume-eurogroup-summit-live

 

Prosečna grčka penzija je 2009. bila 1350 evra (daleko veća od nemačke), a danas je 833, što je i dalje znatno više od prosečne plate u mnogim novim članicama EU. Prosečna plata u Grčkoj je i dalje preko 1000 evra.

 

The average Greek pension is 833 euros a month. That's down from 1,350 euros in 2009, according INE-GSEE, the institute of the country's largest labour union.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/16/eurozone-greece-pensions-idUSL5N0Z12PS20150616

 

 

Evo i relativno svežeg poređenja nemačkih i grčkih penzija, podaci o grčkim su od Samarasove vlade:

Standardrente = penzija nakon 45 godina neprekidnog uplaćivanja doprinosa pri prosečnoj plati

Durchschnittsrente = prosečna isplaćena penzija

West = ex BRD

Ost = ex DDR

 

Izvor je Veltov članak iz marta ove godine: http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article138674711/Geldgeber-halten-griechische-Renten-fuer-zu-hoch.html

Edited June 29, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

 Dikson o mogućem daljem razvoju događaja.

 

Stopping Grexit

29 June 2015 | By Hugo Dixon

The chance of Greece quitting the euro has risen sharply. But a so-called Grexit can still be stopped, despite dramatic weekend developments which saw Athens declare a six-day bank holiday after talks with its creditors broke down.The most obvious way of avoiding a Grexit is if the people vote to accept the bailout terms offered by euro zone countries and the International Monetary Fund in a referendum set for July 5. But even if they do that, it’s not certain Greece will avoid a return to the drachma.

 

The Greek people’s initial inclination will be to vote “no”. They are tired of austerity and have been told by Alexis Tsipras, the country’s radical left prime minister, that the creditors’ proposals amount to a humiliating ultimatum.

 

Tsipras ramped up the pressure when he announced the bank holiday on June 28. He accused euro zone countries of trying to blackmail the Greek people in an attempt to undermine democracy.

 

After Tsipras announced the referendum on Friday and made clear he would be campaigning for “no”, euro zone finance ministers refused to extend the current bailout programme after it runs out on June 30. This then caused the European Central Bank to cap the amount of emergency liquidity that Greece’s central bank can pump into its lenders.

 

With people lining up to take money out of cash machines, Athens had no alternative but to impose draconian controls. People will be able to take just 60 euros per day out of their accounts. When Cyprus introduced capital controls two years ago, the limit was 300 euros a day. The Greek controls are much more stringent because Athens is fighting its creditors, whereas Nicosia was cooperating with them.

 

Tsipras has sought to play on the Greek people’s affronted pride. But as the days wear on, fear about what lies ahead may become a more prevalent emotion.

 

A key factor in the referendum will be what the electorate think they are voting for. If they believe that voting “no” amounts to quitting the euro, they will probably vote “yes”. But if they think they are just voting to reject the creditors’ proposals, they may well vote “no”.

 

Tsipras argues that rejecting the creditors’ demands doesn’t amount to quitting the euro. But it is hard to see the country surviving for long without a functioning banking system. And if the people vote “no”, the most plausible way of reopening the banks would be to bring back the drachma.

 

Meanwhile, Tsipras seems to hope Greece’s creditors might cut him a softer deal after the people voted “no”. But this seems implausible, as does the idea that they will sweeten the terms in the next few days and so persuade the prime minister to campaign for “yes”.

 

Barring a miracle, Athens will not be able to repay 1.5 billion euros it owes the IMF on June 30. Without a new bailout deal, it won’t be able to repay the European Central Bank on July 20 either. It will then be hard to pretend the government isn’t bust.

 

The banks will also be insolvent. Not only are they directly exposed to the government because they have lent it money; nearly half their capital is made up of so-called deferred tax assets, effectively an allowance that takes account of the fact that their taxes will be lower in the future because they have made so many losses in the past. What’s more, their bad loans, which are already huge, will rise further as the economy will tank.

 

The ECB, which supervises Greek banks, will probably then conclude that they cannot reopen until they have been recapitalised. But given that the euro zone won’t give Athens any more money, the only way of doing this will be to confiscate a portion of people’s deposits and convert them into new bank shares.

 

Something like this happened in Cyprus two years ago, which is one reason it endured capital controls and stayed in the euro. But, again, there is a big difference with Greece. In Cyprus, the “haircut” applied only to uninsured deposits over 100,000 euros and many of these were owned by Russians who couldn’t vote. In Greece, even small savers would be hit. It is hard to see Tsipras either having the guts to do this or surviving as prime minister if he did.

 

So in practice, voting “no” is highly likely to be a vote to bring back the drachma. The currency would then plummet, inflation would skyrocket and, during the transition, there would be shortages of basic imported commodities like petrol and medicine.

 

If the Greeks reflect on all this, they may vote “yes” in the coming referendum – though the fact that there is less than a week before the vote means that there’s not much time to retreat from their initial emotional reaction.

 

But even if they vote “yes”, it’s not clear that Greece will stay in the euro. For a start, Tsipras may try to hang onto power. If he does, the creditors won’t want to do a deal with him. They have so little trust in him that they now don’t believe he would implement any programme.

 

A more likely outcome is that Tsipras resigns as prime minister, leading to new elections. But even that is problematic, as the opposition is so fragmented that the prime minister could win such a vote even after losing the referendum. It is hard to imagine what would happen then.

 

On the other hand, the opposition might create a united front and win the election. If so, the creditors would presumably be willing to restart negotiations on a deal as they might trust the new government more than Tsipras. But it would still be tricky to get the show back on the road after the economy has gone into reverse, the government has defaulted and the bailout programme has expired.

 

Nevertheless, given the misery that awaits the Greeks if the country quits the euro, one hopes that they find some kind of way to avoid it.

 

http://www.breakingviews.com/hugo-dixon-its-still-possible-to-stop-grexit/21205678.article

 

Pregled današnje grčke štampe sa slikama naslovnica i prevodima naslova:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11705245/What-the-Greek-front-pages-say.html

 

Ciprasovo pismo od juče čelnicima država sa zahtevom da se produženje bailouta razmotri ponovo:

http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/files/2015/06/letter_PM-Luxembourg.pdf

Edited June 29, 2015 by vememah

[Muwan]

GF nije rekao da su im penzije bile 200 evra nego da su u proseku bile 200 evra veće od realnih iznosa koje je penzioni sistem mogao da priušti.

[vememah]

Da, a ja mislim da su penzije bile naduvane više od 200 evra mesečno po penzioneru, što sam i potkrepio podacima zbog kojih to mislim, tim pre što je do krize Grčka isplaćivala 14 penzija godišnje.

 

______________________________

 

Prevod odluke o zatvaranju banaka:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-29/what-are-greece-s-capital-controls-

Edited June 29, 2015 by vememah

[Muwan]

Ne bi bilo loše pogledati i raspodelu među penzijama tj. koliko ih je na nekom minimalcu a koliko ide preko soma i po evra i ko čini tu povlašćenu grupu.

 

 

edit: Manc, ti si negde tumačio da će austerity mnogima srezati penzije na 250 evra. To znači smanjenje prosečne penzije za nekih 70%, jesi li siguran da je predlog bio toliko drastičan?

Edited June 29, 2015 by beowl

[vememah]

45% ima ispod 665 evra, što je proglašena granica siromaštva u Grčkoj, to je podatak koji se stalno provlači po vestima. Imaš gore na Rojtersovom linku iz posta 3891.

 

Economist Intelligence Unit misli da je šansa za Grci podrže Ciprasa 60%.

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=613293645&Country=Greece&topic=Politics

[CPP]

Iznos dnevnog limita od 60 evra ukazuje na vrlo tanak končić o kome su grčke banke dosad visile (na Kipru je limit u početku bio 260 evra, da kasnije bio spušten na 100) i divno će se odraziti na turističku industriju koja bi trebalo da omogući da Grčka ove godine ne doživi veću recesiju.

 

Zaista divan tajming odluke o referendumu.

 

Na Kipru su banke bile zatvorene skoro dve nedelje, as in limit 0. Kada su ponovo otvorene dnevni limit je bio 300 evra.

 

Iz ove perspektive, kolaps 2013 i posledicno finansijsko razdvajanje od Grcke, kresanje drzavnog budzeta, davanje Bank Of Cyprus stranom menadzmentu na upravljanje, shitcanovanje Cyprus Airwaysa a pogotovo imanje desnicarske vlade koja s odobravanjem prima tvrdi kurs trojke... sve zajedno deluje kao odlicna stvar. Posledice cega god u Grckoj po Kipar ce biti minimalne (neke banke imaju minimalni exposure), i najvise ce biti pogodjene firme cije su matice u Grckoj a operacije ovde. 

[Muwan]

Juncker u Briselu, kao da drži oproštajni govor pred udar džinovskog asteroida: uradili smo sve što smo mogli, ja sam uradio sve što sam mogao, nije fer da se u nas upire prstom...

 

 

Edit: kaže da smanjivanje penzija nikada nije bilo u opticaju (wtf) i da je trojka bila spremna da razgovara o otpisu duga.

Edited June 29, 2015 by beowl

[yolo]

ludilo je koja spirala laganja iz brisala krece pred referendum. do kraja nedelje ispasce da su iz brisela nudili povecenje penzija i smanjivanje PDV na 13%...