Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[Prospero]

Vidi, direktno američko mešanje u ove teme će imati ozbiljnije i ne baš sagledice posledice na mnogim drugim pitanjima.

[MancMellow]

Vidi, direktno američko mešanje u ove teme će imati ozbiljnije i ne baš sagledice posledice na mnogim drugim pitanjima.

 

Ne znam, ali...u stvari zavisi koliko je Amerima stalo. Ako im je stalo - Nemci će morati da popuste. 

[vememah]

Citibank očekuje ostanak Grčke u Evrozoni.

 

Economist Who Coined ‘Grexit’ Now Says Greece Will Stay in Euro

The man who coined the term “Grexit” in February 2012 to describe the risk of Greece leaving the euro area now thinks the country will stay after all.

“We expect the referendum to result in a comfortable majority for the ‘Yes’ camp, and expect no Grexit this year and a lower risk of Grexit in subsequent years,” Citigroup Inc. economists including Ebrahim Rahbari wrote in a research note for clients on Sunday.

Their research was published after Greece Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called a referendum on whether to accept more austerity in exchange for aid.

Three years ago, Rahbari and his colleagues put the probability of Greece leaving the currency bloc at 50 percent within 18 months. They later raised it to 90 percent by 2014.

The snap plebiscite announced for July 5 could end up being seen as a vote on Greece’s membership in the euro.

Opinion polls show a majority of the Greek population supports retaining the single currency, although further tax increases and spending cuts have few supporters in a country with 25 percent unemployment that’s seen its economy contract by a quarter since 2010.

“With a ‘No’ vote or an unconvincing ‘Yes’ vote, it is hard to see how a government willing and able to implement anything like the latest proposals of the institutions could be in place for the rest of this year,” the Citigroup economists wrote.

At that point, “unless there is a change of government in Greece (or a major change of views among the institutions), the slide into Grexit would be very likely, even though it might take a long time,” according to the research note.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-28/economist-who-coined-grexit-now-says-greece-will-stay-in-euro

 

 

Citijeva analiza:

https://ir.citi.com/gnXlACVznJYxJTSQgke1pCFdJ23phvLH85p%2BuSkY7ZIDsCYAPlXXFg%3D%3D

Edited June 28, 2015 by vememah

[MancMellow]

Pa...kvota na "Yes" vote je 1.25, tako da...

[vememah]

Ciprasovo današnje obraćanje sa engleskim titlom:

 

https://t.co/9mVzFO3DbK

Edited June 28, 2015 by vememah

[MancMellow]

Ian Traynor, Guardian Europe Editor

 

 

Five years from its inception, the world’s biggest bailout of a sovereign state will grind to an excruciating halt on Tuesday, theoretically leaving Greece high and dry and on its own under a leftwing government bitterly accusing the EU elite of deliberately using the country as a neo-liberal laboratory.

 

If the experiment has been a disaster for Greece, it is also a colossal failure forEurope, with the result that at the very apex of leadership the EU nowadays resembles an unhappy assembly of squabbling politicians locked in what could not be called an “ever closer union”.

 

Take just the last few days. On Thursday leaders at a summit contemplated formally for the first time, however briefly, the prospect of Britain leaving the EU. By three o’clock on Friday morning they were all at one another’s throats in an unseemly quarrel over who should take part in accommodating a mere 40,000 refugees from Italy and Greece over two years, and on what terms. On Saturday, 18 governments of the eurozone cut Greece off and initiated a process that could end in pushing Athens out of the currency and perhaps out of the union.

Three days, three crises, and a collective performance that inspires little hope or confidence in their crisis management.

 

The air is already thick with recrimination, not just between Greece and the rest of Europe, but among the Europeans. France says that Greece must be saved, Germany says impossible. The European commission is seeking to revive negotiation that are on their deathbed. The Finnish finance minister, Alex Stubb, is looking forward to the funeral. The International Monetary Fund is at odds with the Europeans over the levels of Greek debt.

Everywhere there is the sight of leaders seeking to escape responsibility for a sorry state of affairs. For weeks, in anticipation of the criticism certain to be directed at them in the event of a Greek collapse, senior German figures have privately been saying: “Well, nobody will be able to say that we did not try our best.”

 

 

At the meeting of eurozone finance ministers on Saturday that ended the Greek bailout, the French finance minister, Michel Sapin, was the only one with enough humility to remark that maybe the Europeans had got some things wrong and that things might have been done differently, according to witnesses.

 

The IMF has argued internally for at least three years that the organisation was breaching its own rules by taking part in a bailout that held out little prospect of achieving the debt sustainability the fund’s rescues prescribe. Christine Lagarde, the IMF chief, ignored the advice of her own experts and remained in the failing project.

 

Following the calling of the Greek referendum, the collapse of the negotiations and the end of the bailout on Saturday, the European commission, keen to salvage the situation while diverting blame, stated publicly for the first time on Sunday that the proposed deal would have included a form of debt relief for Greece, prime minister Alexis Tsipras’s central demand.

“The understanding of all parties involved was that [saturday’s] Eurogroup meeting should achieve a comprehensive deal for Greece, one that would have included not just the measures to be jointly agreed, but would also have addressed future financing needs and the sustainability of the Greek debt,” a commission statement said.

 

Berlin will not wear that any time soon. According to people present, Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, told his eurozone counterparts there was no way he would risk taking a Greece bailout proposal to the Bundestag at this stage, especially when Tsipras had roundly rejected it.

 

“We would have to say to our population and parliament that [the Greek] government would do what it is obliged to do in the programme, although it just recommended that people should not accept it,” he then told German TV.

 

Eurozone leaders ooze confidence that Greece’s financial collapse could be easily weathered by the rest of the currency bloc. No one really knows how the chaos, likely if Tsipras wins his referendum on Sunday, will affect the rest of the zone economically and financially. But it is political poison.

 

For Europe’s leaders, five years of failure in Greece mean that everyone’s a loser.

 

[Prospero]

Blumbergovac do balčaka:
 
 
 

Greek Referendum Is More Con Than Democracy
JUN 28, 2015 4:02 AM EDT
By Marc Champion
 


The Greek parliament has approved a referendum to decide whether to accept the latest bailout terms offered by the country’s creditors. It will come too late and ask the wrong question.

This is a vote that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras should have called at least a month ago -- if it were an honest effort to let the Greek people make a democratic choice on where their future lies, which it is not. As it is, the July 5 referendum will be so rushed as to be flawed in principle, and will come after the current bailout program expires. Indeed, it may come after Greece has already suffered a banking collapse.

The referendum is not, as Tsipras repeatedly claimed during his announcement, an expression of democracy in response to the “authoritarianism” of the creditors. His argument that the creditors must bend to the will of his election mandate has been preposterous from the start: In which debtor nation would voters not elect to have easier credit terms? And in what case has the International Monetary Fund or any creditor been answerable to the electorate of its client nation?

I’ve argued for Greece to hold a vote to clarify what its people want. It was necessary because Syriza lied during the campaign to get its representatives elected in January, by offering to end the bailout terms, keep the bailout and stay in the euro -- an option that, rightly or wrongly, was never available. Rather than produce a clearer mandate, though, this proposed referendum would continue Syriza’s subterfuge.

According to a draft cabinet proposal, the question on which Greeks would be asked to vote in just seven days’ time would be whether they want to accept the latest offer from the country’s creditors. This is a complex document that has yet to be translated into Greek and may well be void by Wednesday. It is clear from the language Tsipras used in describing that offer -- “blackmail,” “humiliation,” “ultimatum” -- which way he wants the vote to go.

Again, just as during the election campaign, Syriza officials are not mentioning what all this would mean for Greece’s place in the euro. They are maintaining the fiction that the question of accepting the bailout terms is quite separate from whether Greece defaults on its debt payments, sees its financial sector collapse and is forced to issue its own currency in one guise or another.

Not once in his address on the referendum did Tsipras mention the common currency. When the Associated Press asked Syriza cabinet minister Panagiotis Lafazanis whether the nirvana of reconstruction and progress he described as following from a “no” vote to the bailout would involve leaving the euro, he said:  “It is you [the media] who pose this dilemma.”

This is populist dishonesty. It may be that by this point Greece would be better off defaulting and returning to the drachma (though I doubt it). And it may be that a majority of Greeks would make the choice to go it alone, rather than continue a dysfunctional relationship with the nation’s economic partners and creditors (although opinion polls suggest not). But the proposed referendum doesn’t ask those questions.

Tsipras and his party want this vote to legitimize their decision to default and exit the euro, most likely after that decision has already been made, without actually telling Greeks that this is the choice they are making. It gives further weight to my suspicion that Syriza’s erratic negotiating behavior for the last five months has been driven by a preference for default and exiting the euro they could not express, because the party had no mandate for it.

Greek voters should be told the honest truth about what they would be deciding on July 5, if the vote goes ahead at all after the likely chaos of the next week: a return to the bailout terms within the euro, or a default and a return to fiscal sovereignty outside it.

 

[MancMellow]

Jeste (i) con, ali to nije bitno. I mislim da nije (direktno) con prema grčkim glasačima

 

Međutim ovde greši

 

 

 

It gives further weight to my suspicion that Syriza’s erratic negotiating behavior for the last five months has been driven by a preference for default and exiting the euro they could not express, because the party had no mandate for it.

 

Syriza je jednostavno podeljena po tom pitanju. Zato i ovakav "con" (između ostalog)

Edited June 28, 2015 by MancMellow

[vememah]

Ciprasova objava referenduma od prekjuče sa engleskim titlom:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8P23nFpLuA&feature=youtu.be

Edited June 28, 2015 by vememah

[Prospero]

Ciprasovo današnje obraćanje sa engleskim titlom:

 

https://t.co/9mVzFO3DbK

 

Nezdrava doza populizma 

 

a ima i FDR-ovski momenat pri kraju.

[vememah]

Mislim da je i on svestan da je jako loše odigrao.

 

Suverenitet, identitet, dostojanstvo...

Edited June 28, 2015 by vememah

[Anduril]

Pa dobro, tu svako igra svoju legitimnu igru a realnost ce na kraju pokazati gde stvari stoje.

 

Naravno da ce se uvek cuti glasovi iz Amerike ili Londona da Grcku treba dalje izdrzavati dok god nisu njihove pare u pitanju.

Svaki pomen desetina izgubljenih milijardi na racun korupcije i drzavnih penzija u Grckoj bi izazvao pobunu na Kapitolu ili u Vestminsteru dok se od holandskog ili nemackog parlamenta ocekuje da potpisuju racune.

 

Btw. Grcka je od 1981. naime subvencija, otpisa duga i subvencionisanih restruktuiranja duga direktno dobila 505 milijardi evra kao verovatno nijedna drzava u istoriji. Zaista cudno da i onolika evropska solidarnost ima svoje politicke i finansijske granice. Do sada nije bilo sasvim jasno gde su te granice i to je mozda jedino pozitivno u ovih poslednjih 5 meseci.

[Anduril]

Mislim da je i on svestan da je jako loše odigrao.

 

Suverenitet, identitet, dostojanstvo...

 

Pa jednom recju - nacionalizam.

To cesto uhvati levicu kad ponestane para.

[vememah]

[vememah]