Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[Tribun_Populi]

Beowl, otprilike linija pro-hard stance argumentacije i kreće u smeru o kome si govorio.

 

 

По свој прилици, морамо заборавити на новац који смо дали Грчкој", сматра словеначки министар спољних послова Карл Ерјавец.

Додаје да се грчки премијер Алексис Ципрас сам довео у безизлазну ситуацију и да се за референдум одлучио јер не може да испуни нереална предизборна обећања.

"Грчка је пред политичком кризом која ће довести до превремених избора, а можда чак и до изласка из еврозоне", каже Ерјавец.

 

 

Here's a theory growing in belief in #Greece at the moment. If true it's not even a soft coup anymore.

 

Pa uopšte ne bi ni čudilo da ih dave kao zmija žabu.

[vememah]

U Patri/Patrasu (210.000 stanovnika, gradsko jezgro 160.000)  navodno više nema bankomata koji rade:

https://twitter.com/AlexMaragos/status/615151743731662848

 

Zaposleni u bankama traže garancije za bezbednost ako će one biti otvorene:

Edited June 28, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Evropska komisija objavila ponudu kreditora kako bi Grci znali o čemu glasaju na referendumu (iako ističe pre njega):

 

 

Saopštenje: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5270_en.htm

Sam dokument: http://europa.eu/rapid/attachment/IP-15-5270/en/List%20of%20prior%20actions%20-%20version%20of%2026%20June%2020%2000.pdf

 

Kontrole kapitala uvodi ministar na predlog guvernera, dok privremeno zatvaranje banaka može da izvede guverner dekretom samostalno.

 

Edited June 28, 2015 by vememah

[Prospero]

and a reduced 13 percent rate for basic food, energy, hotels, and water (excluding sewage)

Ok, zar nije bilo reči da je zadnji predlog bio neprihvatljiv i zato što je digao PDV na hotelske usluge na 23%, a ovde piše da je 13%?

 

Grčki medij u petak:

 

According to the creditors’ proposal, the new VAT system will (i) unify the rates at a standard 23 percent rate, which will include restaurants, hotels and catering, and a reduced 13 percent rate for basic food energy, and water (excluding sewage), and a super-reduced rate of 6 percent for pharmaceuticals, books and theater; (ii) streamline exemptions to broaden the base and raise the tax on insurance, and (iii)eliminate discounts, including on islands.

Jel to neko lagao u petak, pogrešno čitao ili je Brisel izvršio promenu u zadnji čas kako bi u narednim danima mogao da kaže da je ponuda prihvatljivija nego što je Siriza predstavljala grčkoj javnosti?

Edited June 28, 2015 by Prospero

[MancMellow]

Ok, zar nije bilo reči da je zadnji predlog bio neprihvatljiv i zato što je digao PDV na hotelske usluge na 23%, a ovde piše da je 13%?

 

Grčki medij u petak:

 

Jel to neko lagao u petak, pogrešno čitao ili je Brisel izvršio promenu u zadnji čas kako bi u narednim danima mogao da kaže da je ponuda prihvatljivija nego što je Siriza predstavljala grčkoj javnosti?

 

ili je ustupak. ili je ustupak vlasnicima hotela od kojih mnogi i nisu grci. 

[Prospero]

Ma dobro što je ustupak nego zašto je u petak pričano da je PDV za hotele na 23% a sada je na 13%? Da li je neko pogrešno čitao u petak ili je ubačena izmena nakon što su Grci u petak otišli iz Brisela?

[Prospero]

Par viđenja razvoja situacije:

 

 

 

 

Greece: bank analysts and eurowatchers on what to expect on Monday

Izabella Kaminska

Author alerts

 

| Jun 28 15:18 | 1 comment | Share

For the latest on the ECB’s liquidity position on Greece, see our post here.

Here, meanwhile, is some instant analysis by way of the FT Alphaville collective inbox:

Beat Siegenthaler (on the sales-side of UBS) says Grexit may still be avoided, but do expect a Bank Holiday:

According to media reports the ECB has issued a statement saying that ELA would be kept at current levels as of last Friday. 

This means that Greek banks may not have sufficient cash to open tomorrow Monday as normal.

 As a result, there may now be a very high likelihood of a 

bank holiday being announced for tomorrow and possibly for the whole week ahead of the Sunday referendum.

As argued earlier (see below), this will likely trigger broad risk aversion across markets tomorrow. However, according to recent polls there may be a majority in the Greek population supporting the creditor-proposed package. Hence if the vote was a ‘yes’ then the creditor side will likely work hard at keeping Greece within the Eurozone.

 We may thus not see full-blown risk off sentiment tomorrow as there is still a fair chance of Grexit being avoided in the end.

Unicredit’s Erik Nielsen says:

It is clear that Europe will keep the Greek boat afloat through the referendum, and rightly so. It’s a lot of legalistic flexibility and patience, but – in my opinion – it’s the right thing to do. But next Sunday is decision time for the Greek population. And personally, I’m glad it is. Frankly, I’m fed up with this Greek drama, created by a government apparently thinking it’s living in an isolated space, and which insists that its democratic mandate is more valid than the democratic mandate of its European partners.

It’s now more than three months ago that I came to the conclusion that the Greek government lives in a parallel universe, so on March 15, in this note, I called on them to call a referendum on continued eurozone membership (with reforms) or a return to the drachma. I have no illusion that it was my suggestion of a referendum that triggered the decision in Athens, but I mention it for two reasons. First, three months ago, they might have had a fighting chance to engineer an orderly exit. Now, with bankruptcy looming and the financial system on life support, time has run out for an orderly exit route. Second, Greece needs to stop monopolizing European policymaking.

There is a humanitarian crisis unfolding in the Mediterranean (and what an embarrassing outcome on how to deal with the refugees at Thursday’s EU summit!), another wave of terror attacks was launched in several countries on Friday (we need more public resources to prevent and deal with this clash of civilizations), Russia is redefining relations between East and West (we need an integrated European leadership to deal with this), and Europe still needs to deal with the challenges of its demographics (smart structural reforms are needed.)

And specifically with regards to Monday:

From tomorrow morning, Monday, all banks in Greece will have either tight limits on withdrawals of funds, or be closed in a government-mandated bank holiday.

Again, though, I am not convinced that the government can manage a proper capital control regime. On Tuesday 6pm Washington time, the Greek government will almost certainly miss its EUR 1.6bn payment to the IMF, and while it’ll be a month before all the normal procedures for arrears and all roll out, they will have joined that sad club of failed states in terms of relations with the IMF.

For a country of Greece’s history and status – unbelievable… Wednesday, they’ll formally be out of a program with their European partners. Some media reports have suggested that the Eurogroup will modify the proposed program (possibly to make it more acceptable in a referendum), but I have great difficulty seeing this happening. And next Sunday, it’ll all be decided.

Nick Kounis, head of macro and financial markets research at ABN Amro, suggests the referendum may be too late:

The current Greek bailout programme ends on 30 June, when Greece is also scheduled to pay the IMF. So ironically, by 5 July the new bailout plan the Greek people would be asked to vote for would technically no longer be on the table in any case. The Greek government asked the Eurogroup for an extension of a month. Without any further commitment from the Greek government, the Eurogroup denied this. Given the lack of an external financing programme, the Greek government will be unable to pay its debts in coming days and weeks. First up is the IMF payment on 30 June.

Missing an IMF payment is not technically defined as a default by credit rating agencies. Furthermore, under normal IMF conditions a missed IMF payment is not registered as such for a while. However, Managing Director Lagarde has so far taken a tough approach and has said Greece would be declared to have missed the payment on 1 July.

The next major payment is on 20 July when government bonds held by the ECB are due. Failure to pay back the capital would be seen as a default. The government may also struggle to meet its domestic payments.

If deposit withdrawal accelerates meanwhile:

Given the escalation of fears of default and Greek euro exit, it seems very likely that deposit withdrawal will accelerate to a rapid pace with a major risk of a bank run. So far, the Greek central bank has been providing emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greek banks to accommodate these cash withdrawals. When the current bailout programme runs out and is not replaced by a new one, the ECB may judge that Greek banks are no longer solvent due to the Greek government bonds they hold. As a result, the ECB may pull the plug on Greek banks and end the ELA liquidity support. This would imply significant financial instability with grave consequences for an already battered economy. 

Even if the ECB were to allow the Bank of Greece to continue its ELA support, deposit and capital controls will most likely be necessary to stem deposit flight and the Greek authorities may close the banks for a couple of days

. Deposit flight eased during the course of last week, but there were long lines at many ATMs in Greece on Saturday following the announcement of the referendum.

Overall, Kounis believes the risk of Greek euro exit has risen:

A euro exit would not be good for Greece.

In the first year at least it would mean an even more severe economic crash. The weakness in the economy, banking stress and fiscal tightening would be ‘complemented’ by a collapse in the value of the new currency. Inflation would soar. The experience from countries that have exited currency boards is that eventually, the economy would adjust and rebound. However, in the meantime, social hardship would become severe and there would be a risk of serious political instability. For the rest of the eurozone, there would most likely be more financial stress, with peripheral government bonds and other Southern European assets leading the decline.

During the previous Greek debt crisis in 2011/2012 the combination of deteriorating confidence and spiking borrowing costs in a number of countries pushed the eurozone economy into a new recession.

The consequences this time around will be much less severe. First, the Greek exposures of the rest of the eurozone are much less than in the past. In addition, as discussed above, policymakers would intervene. There are signs that confidence in the eurozone is being affected by the Greek crisis and some economic damage is likely. However, we are assuming that calm will be restored relatively quickly. If that is the case, the economy should eventually regain its footing.

How the eurozone might develop after an exit by Greece is unclear. Investors may price in higher risk premiums for weaker eurozone countries. But we have to keep in mind that the project of European integration stumbles from crisis to crisis only to get more solid with every step.

We will bring you more analysis as we get it.

[MancMellow]

Ma dobro što je ustupak nego zašto je u petak pričano da je PDV za hotele na 23% a sada je na 13%? Da li je neko pogrešno čitao u petak ili je ubačena izmena nakon što su Grci u petak otišli iz Brisela?

 

Možda saznamo uskoro, a možda nikad tj ne tako skoro

Edited June 28, 2015 by MancMellow

[Budja]

Ja apsolutno ne verujem sta citam.

Da/ne, poruke, igrarije...

 

Je li to povratak te ideologije o kojoj se govori?

Siriza da sprovodi referendumsku odluku protiv koje je vodila politiku?

Samo tehnicki, ali politicki odmah moraju novi izbori ako YES pobedi.

 

I da referendum je posten, upravo kao raskid sa politikom "i Kosovo i Evropa". Ako Siriza nastavi da vodi Vladu nakon eventualnog YES na referendumu, to jeste pilicarenje o kojem sam ranije govorio.

 

Ovo sto je Varufakis pricao na poslednjem sastanku je mind-fuck. Kao, mi radimo u vasem interesu?! Sta taj covek zapravo hoce?

 

[hazard]

Verovatno, ali onda znaju u startu između čega biraju. 

 

S druge strane, i u Briselu se može oformiti mekše mišljenje koje će želeti da izbegne a) dolazak vansistemskih™ elemenata i b) ponavljanje ovakve situacije, tj. otvoriti kanale ozbiljnijeg razgovaranja i naći neka mekša rešenja za novi (treći) paket koji će više ciljati remont sistema u Grčkoj i time donekle izaći u susret grčkom očaju.

 

Ja sve nesto imam osecaj da su na vlast umesto Sirize dosli neki vansistemski centristi ili liberali ili liberterijanci ili tako vec nesto (npr. neka grcka verzija DJB) da bi se mnogo lakse sa njima dogovorili i mnogo vise ustupaka ucinili. Mislim da jednostavno trenutno postoji ogroman ideoloski otklon prema Sirizi (koja se, btw, od dolaska na vlast uopste ne ponasa kao neka radikalna levica, niti u praksi, niti retoricki), narocito imajuci u vidu ko trenutno vlada u Nemackoj.

 

Problem je samo u tome sto je grckoj upravo potreban vansistemski element™ na vlasti da sistem demontira i reformise (jer bez toga nema nade za neki oporavak), a ko, nakon torpedovanja Sirize, uopste tu ostaje? Sve ostale vansistemske opcije su potpuno neprihvatljive jer su ili zaista radikalno leve (komunisti) ili su radikalni desnicari tj. fasisti (Zlatna zora).

[Аврам Гојић]

CC mere ipak nisu dovoljne, pocinje bank holiday. Katimerini pise da ce banke biti zatvorene najmanje nedelju dana, do referenduma.

 

 

Greece will shut its banks Monday to avert a financial collapse after the European Central Bank froze emergency loans to the nation’s lenders.

Piraeus Bank SA Chief Executive Officer Anthimos Thomopoulos disclosed the decision to reporters after a meeting of the government’s financial-stability panel on Sunday.

 

Edited June 28, 2015 by Грешни Василије

[Аврам Гојић]

Zatvara se i berza.

 

Reuters: #Greek financial source says the Athens Stock Exchange will not open on Monday

 

[Budja]

To. Referendumsko "da" je za EU zapravo bolje od toga da je Siriza pre dva dana prihvatila sporazum. Ako bude "da", doduše, a dajem 55:45 šanse da će biti "da". ;) Grci imaju malo manevarskog prostora sada (tj nemaju ga skoro uopšte) ali ga mogu kupiti na ovaj način, i učiniti ono što Siriza nije mogla/htela - naći saveznike u EU..

 

Da, svakako, nakon sto Grci glasaju za DA nako stava sopstvene Vlade i slicno, onda ce, je l da, Grcka da proglasi pobedu i trazi saveznike.

 

DA je glas za Evropu i demokratsku suspenziju suvereniteta. 

 

DA ce biti potvrda ispravnosti evropske politike i metoda.

[Аврам Гојић]

Cipras se obraca medijima nakon sednice vlade. Pretpostavljam da ce obelodaniti ove odluke.

[Anduril]

Legitimitet ovog referenduma u uslovima koji dolaze je upitan.

Sa referendumom kao takvim i preuzimanjem politicke odgovornosti od strane glasaca nema problema, posebno ako se ima u vidu da onih 300 miljardi nisu pojeli skakavci nego u najvecoj vecinski elektorat PASOKA i ND.

 

Sa druge strane, Siriza je ipak najbolji izbor da se sprovede eventualno referendumsko "DA".

 

No, ukoliko dodje do opste dezorganizacije i haosa usled lose pripreme, morace opet na izbore.

 

EU mora da se pripremi za humanitarnu pomoc i konacno objavi proceduru sprovodjenja bankrota clanica EZ.

Edited June 28, 2015 by Anduril