Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[Takeshi]

uravo je fer da grci uz slike potencijalnog finansijskog haosa odlucuju da li prihvataju zahteve ili ne.

[Budja]

Financial Times Europe Editor

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c990f1a2-1cfe-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/world_europe/feed//product#axzz3eIIJZA2d

 

 

 

ovo je mnooogo bolji kandidat za najbolji tekst :)

 

 

 

The goal of harmonious European integration is now under greater threat than ever, thanks to the challenges of irregular migration, economic stagnation, Russian truculence, narrow-minded British attitudes and the appalling mishandling of the eurozone’s troubles.

 

S tim sto se problemi predstavljaju onako neodredjeno, pali s neba, a ne kao direktna posledica goverrnance u EU. Nijedan problem tu nije nametnut spolja vec je rezultat poteza Evropske unije (osim mozda Britanaca, ali to je prilicno sporedno).

[Budja]

Mislim da nema sumnje da Grckoj treba pomoci da izbegne totalni haos.

 

Zato je i potrebna procedura za izlazak iz Evra a okakvi referendumi treba da se odrzavaju blagovremeno.

 

Nazalost, sve ovo od strane Sirize mirise na teski politicki amaterizam, pa se nadam da su se bar pripremili za ovo sto sledi.

 

Prema internim pravilima ECB, ako zemlja nije vise u bajlaut programu, ne postoji vise mogucnost podrske grckim bankama.

 

Dakle, najkasnije u sredu banke vise nece otvoriti i u tim haoticnim uslovima koje su samo pocetak ce se onda do nedelje odrzati referendum.

 

Totalni politicki fejl.

 

Dovoljno sam kritikovao ponasanje  vlade Grcke da mogu da kazem da takmicenje u amaterizmu nije samo na jednoj strani. Da jeste, problem bi vec bio resen. Za veliko sranje su potrebna dva amatera.

[MancMellow]

S tim sto se problemi predstavljaju onako neodredjeno, pali s neba, a ne kao direktna posledica goverrnance u EU. Nijedan problem tu nije nametnut spolja vec je rezultat poteza Evropske unije (osim mozda Britanaca, ali to je prilicno sporedno).

 

Dobro, naravno

[vememah]

Šojble za Tagesthemen (vesti u 23 na 1. kanalu) izjavio da je Cipras zvao Merkelovu tek nešto pre objave na televiziji, tako da je ona njega obavestila o tome nekoliko minuta pre nego što su agencije objavile vest o referendumu.

Edited June 27, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Prve ankete kažu da bi Cipras mogao da izgubi:

https://twitter.com/adnanchian/status/614918182596399104

 

Lagard: referendum je nebitan, jer ti predlozi neće biti na stolu posle utorka:

 

Grčki ministar spoljnih poslova preti neodređenim vetom:

 

Greek foreign minister: we have a veto and we're not afraid to use it

And thus begin the threats, Nikos Kotsias, Syriza's foreign minister, has tweeted that those "rejoicing" at the possibility of a Grexit should remember that as a member of the EU, Greece holds a veto (rought translation). He doesn't say what he'd use if for, but my guess is that it's a threat against any moves to breach its treaty rights as a member state.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11702478/Greece-crisis-live-shock-referendum-throws-bail-out-future-into-chaos-ahead-of-crunch-Brussels-meeting.html

 

Cipras u skupštini:

Edited June 27, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Cipras, nastavak:

 

Neki predlažu da se ne treba zaustaviti na grčkom referendumu, što ne bi bio organizovan i panevropski?

Edited June 27, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

[vememah]

Uz vladinu većinu za referendum glasaju i fašisti iz Zlatne zore. Komunisti (KKE) su protiv zajedno s ostatkom opozicije, nakon što vlast nije usvojila njihov predlog da referendumsko pitanje bude o ostanku Grčke u EU.

 

Stream sa trenutnim rezultatom (nai=za referendum, ohi= protiv referenduma):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYAKHy5JffE

Edited June 27, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Izglasan.

[vememah]

[vememah]

Pitanje za danas je hoće li ECB čekati bankrot u utorak da zavrne ELA slavinu ili će to učiniti odmah. Ekspresna varijanta je izgleda verovatnija:

 

Telegraf: trećina bankomata juče presušila

 

Meanwhile more than a third of the Greece's ATMs ran dry on Saturday as Greeks rushed to withdraw their savings from banks that may now have weeks to survive.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11703614/Greece-48-hours-from-fatal-eurozone-rupture-as-creditor-powers-poised-to-pull-the-plug.html

 

 

 

 

Victims of Illusions: The Non-Solution of the Greferendum

 

Cas Mudde

Associate professor in the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia

 

The so often repeated claim that the Troika is "disingenuous" is not just evidence of the typical moralistic discourse of populism, in which the other side is "the enemy" that is "corrupt," but, even more importantly, shows the Greek government's utter misperception of its opponent(s). Whether they truly believe their accusations or not is not that relevant, although it does go to the question whether they are simply incompetent or (also) disingenuous. In essence, the Greek government is accusing the Troika of being -- well -- the Troika! It blames them for not supporting the Syriza program. The Troika largely does the same, of course, but uses overall a more technocratic, rather than moralistic, discourse.

 

The essence of this drama is that both camps are informed by fundamentally different visions and try to come to an impossible compromise on the basis of a warped view of each other. The Greek government thinks the Troika is essentially committed to a strong Europe than to the politics of austerity, and the Troika still thinks that Greece is a typical European state, which in their view means a Northern European state. Hence, Tsipras keeps presenting "fairer" options, while Merkel keeps calling for "rational reforms." While both can be criticized for incompetence and immorality, the costs are clearly much higher for Tsipras' Greeks than for Merkel's Germans.

 

Whatever the logic and morality of the austerity politics, and both can be seriously questioned, the Troika has been absolutely clear that this is the foundation of its Eurozone politics. It might be rigid, but it is straightforward and, therefore, honest. In sharp contrast, the Greek government, both Syriza and coalition partner Independent Greeks (ANEL), has been far from clear in its position. It has invented a third option, Eurozone without austerity, which from the outset has been rejected by the Troika. More fundamentally, however, Syriza proclaims to be a radical left party, which supports an economic model somewhere in between socialism and social democracy. It wants to realize this within the European Union and the Eurozone, which are both fundamentally neoliberal projects, in which substantial state involvement in the economy is considered wrong.

 

The current standoff was inevitable as soon as the Greek population voted Syriza into power. In essence, therefore, both ANEL/Syriza and their supporters are responsible for the situation that they find themselves in now. They can blame the Troika for being, and staying true to being, the Troika, but that doesn't change the reality. Tsipras' call for a referendum took much of the rest of the European Union, and perhaps many in Greece, by surprise. Pundits will undoubtedly see it as further proof of the highly rational (choice) strategy of 'game theorist' and Finance Minister Varoufakis, trying to put extra pressure on the Troika. However, their archenemy Samaras did the same in 2011 and failed (too).

 

In classic populist language Tsipras called for a "democratic response" to the creditors that try to "humiliate" Greece. Varoufakis tweeted that the referendum will "boost" democracy in "euro-related matters." Responding to reactions that he had been elected to make these decisions, as this is how representative democracies work, he said that the government doesn't have a mandate to make this important decision because only 41 percent of the people voted for ANEL and Syriza. This is a bizarre argument, which, in extremism, would mean that the government should resign, as it doesn't represent the majority of the Greek people. Moreover, it hasn't stopped Syriza in the last months from claiming to speak in the name of "the people," i.e. not just for a majority but for all (pure) Greek people. Incidentally, the righteous claim of boosting democracy was already undermined by ANEL leader Panos Kammenos, who said that the Greferendum would be withdrawn if the creditors would accept their counteroffer.

 

Rather than boosting democracy the more likely reason for the referendum is to prevent a break up of the government and of Syriza. As a literal coalition of more and less radical left groups Syriza is only really united in the opposition to the bailout conditions. The 'party' is fundamentally divided on continued membership of the Eurozone and even the European Union. However, if democracy is really so important to Varoufakis and the others, they should put the interests of the country and its population above those of the coalition government and the political party.

 

Tsipras has called a referendum on the very narrow issue of the specific terms offered by the creditors for the latest aid package. This is a ridiculous proposal on several accounts. First, the referendum will have to be organized within one week by a state with limited capacity under the best of circumstances, let alone in the height of an economic and political crisis. Second, the terms offered by the creditors are not even public yet (let alone translated into Greek). How can people vote on them if they haven't seen them? Third, the referendum is framed purely as a vote on the terms of the creditors, as if there is an option to get the financial aid under different terms. And, even if this were to be the case, and all behavior and statements of the Troika members makes this highly doubtful, what will happen then, i.e. in the best case scenario: Another referendum on the amended terms?

 

There is a good case to be made for a Greek referendum, but it is not this one. The Greeks should get a straightforward choice between the only two realistic options: staying in the Eurozone under the stated conditions or leaving the Eurozone (and allegedly have their "dignity" and "democracy" back). This is the fundamental choice that should have informed Greek politics for the past years. Greeks could have had that vote in the January elections, but Syriza prevented it by offering a faux third option: stay in the Eurozone without the Eurozone conditions. Now that everyone knows there are only two options, Syriza should finally give the people a vote on them, be it in new elections or in a (well-prepared) referendum.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/cas-mudde/victims-of-illusions-the-_b_7679138.html

Edited June 28, 2015 by vememah

[Muwan]

Koga zanima, tekst o "Planu Z" iz 2012. koji je trebalo da odradi brzi i uređeni izlazak iz EZ, zaštitu EZ i stavljanje ekonomije na svoje noge:

 

Hvala na ovome, fenomenalno štivo.

 

Jedan politički deo mi je privukao pažnju:

 

 

Plan Z was never used. Mr Tsipras’s Syriza party finished second, allowing Greece’s mainstream parties to form an uneasy coalition that eventually agreed to stay the bailout course. But senior officials said the near-miss that summer, and the ensuing debate about Greek membership, helped focus minds in capitals across the eurozone – particularly Berlin, where fights over the advisability of Grexit raged for three more months, before Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, finally put an end to them.

 

 

 

Svesno ili nesvesno, autor ovde potvrđuje nešto što smo pominjali i na topiku: živac na evropskom kažiprstu koji treba da aktivitra contingency planove za Grčku ne vibrira u zavisnosti od toga šta će tamošnja vlada uraditi ili neće uraditi, već vibrira u zavisnosti od toga ko tamo dobija izbore. Pobedi Syriza - svi na svoje emergency pozicije i spremite se da pritisnete dugme; pobedi neko od onih arhilopurdi i kriminalaca iz prethodnih decenija - šalji prvo Baroza pa onda ostale zvaničnike, dogovorićemo se već nekako.

 

I onda bukvalno u sledećem pasusu kaže:

 

Greece’s membership of the euro has been a contentious subject since the moment Athens joined the common currency in 2001. After years of raising alarms, Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency, conducted an investigation in 2004 that found Greece had misreported its financial data, producing figures that vastly overstated its fiscal health in the run-up to euro membership. Despite endemic mismanagement, Athens was able to take advantage of the low interest rates that came with eurozone membership to keep its economy humming on borrowed cash. EU leaders largely ignored the warnings about Greece from bean-counters in Brussels.

 

 

Znači, njihovi stari pajtosi iz ND/PASOK su ih lagali, mazali, uzeli 300 milijardi na "rado ću ti vratiti u utorak" - i posle svega toga njima je i dalje lagodnije da se sa njima o nečemu dogovaraju (valjda zato što na kraju uvek legnu na rudu i poput Tadića i Vučića sve prihvate, što je takođe ilustrovano u tekstu) nego da ispitaju mogućnost da se pronađe zajednički jezik sa partijom koja na tim pregovorima ne predstavlja sebe i neke lične tripove Ciprasa ili Varufakisa, već predstavlja očigledan bes grčkog elektorata spram dobrih starih pajtosa iz ND/PASOK.

 

Koliko god da je Syriza idiotski odigrala, toliko je i trojka od početka u nekakvom ideološkom obračunu sa njima i posmatraju ih kao nekakve usamljene anarhiste a ne kao političare koji, takvi kakvi su, imaju 50% glasova iza sebe.

[Prospero]

SIriza je dobila izbore na "antisistemskim" tezama, pa "all hands on deck" reakcija sistema nije neki wtf momenat. Iz pozicije čuvara sistema ND/Pasok su ušli u pokajničku epizodu sa osteriti merama, a sa njima i grčko društvo koje je debelo profitiralo od book-cookinga pri ulasku u evro a i kasnije. ND/Pasok elita i demos su bili na zajedničkom zadatku i zajednički profitirali, Naravno, u olovnim godinama po običaju više strada demos.

 

To sve dira u pitanje šireg legitimiteta EU sistema, kao i grčkih pozicija unutar njega. Referendum jeste demokratsko pravo, iako mi je priično gadan ovaj o-ruk metod za 7 dana (referendum na Krimu se duže spremao). 

 

Iskreno, mislim da je za Grke bolje da prihvate ove uslove. Njima ne gine dalji pad kupovne moći, za to nije kriva EU nego navike i ponašanje grčkog društva, a mogu da biraju način i dubinu tog pada standarda. Mislim da je prilično skupo biti u "outside looking in" poziciji u današnje vreme, pogotovo ako si mala zemlja.

[vememah]

https://twitter.com/julianaapostate/status/615081037861900288