Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[vememah]

Minimalne šanse za produžetak bailouta do referenduma:

Edited June 27, 2015 by vememah

[Budja]

Više ne znam šta da mislim, ovo je neverovatan leadership fail.

 

Tako za sada izgleda.

 

Ako su pripremili teren za grexit, a pregovori u proslih nedelju dana bili priprema politickog terena (mi hocemo, ali ovi su zli), onda mozda izgleda drugacija, mada je to manje verovatno.

[MancMellow]

Branko zakiva.

 

da, odličan je

[Budja]

 

Velt napada Ciprasa:

 

 

 

"Preuzimanje odgovornosti" = eufemizam za diktaturu spolja i suspenziju demokratije.

[vememah]

5 Greek scenarios

 

The one thing for certain: Greece and the EU are bracing for a very bumpy ride.

 

By Florian Eder

 

27/6/15, 11:14 AM CET

 

Updated 27/6/15, 11:20 AM CET

 

Past midnight on Saturday, Alexis Tsipras made the latest surprise move in Greece’s game of chicken with its creditors: In an address on national television, the Greek prime minister called for a referendum he doesn’t support.

 

The Europeans were prepared for him to take an agreed upon bailout deal to the voters that Eurogroup finance ministers were due to hash out later today in Brussels. They didn’t expect him to do so in the absence of one.

 

Constitutional and practical questions were raised within hours of Tsipras’s speech, leading to speculation that this might be another Athenian feint. The prime minister, who has led a far-left government since winning power in January, is today going to the Greek parliament to ask them to back the referendum. If it happens, Greeks would vote on the latest proposals from creditors, who are demanding spending cuts in exchange for billions in aid.

 

What’s known for sure: The next few days will be turbulent for Greece and the EU. The country’s current bailout program expires on June 30, a week before a July 5 referendum. The country won’t be able to draw another cent from its remaining bailout program, some €7.2 billion worth.

 

Here are five scenarios playing out this weekend and beyond.

1. Another rendez-vous in Brussels

 

Eurozone finance ministers are scheduled to convene Saturday at 2 pm. It’ll likely be a short and useless meeting if it happens at all.

 

In his address early Saturday, Tsipras said he “will ask for a short extension of the program — in writing — from the leaders of the EU and the institutions, so that the Greek people can decide free of pressure and blackmail, as stipulated by our country’s Constitution and Europe’s democratic tradition.”

 

His rhetoric was red hot, and included no conciliatory notes. Tsipras talked about the “the humiliation of the Greek people” at the hands of creditors whose demands “violate” European values and laws.

 

So if the ministers do meet, the meeting’s sole purpose may just be to acknowledge there’s nothing to talk with Athens about — and to plan among themselves for how to tackle the chaos to come. The time of rescue negotiations is over for a while.

2. Even if …

 

Let’s presume the Eurogroup does try to extend the bailout program by a few days to spare Greece default and likely exit from the euro after Tuesday.

 

Good luck with that. Any new money for Greece — even the mere extension of the bailout without a fresh disbursement of funds — requires the support of several parliaments, including in Finland and Germany, which have always driven the harder line with Athens.

 

It would be hard to prepare such legislation by June 30, much less to pass it. Support for an extension is limited in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party.

3. Watch those ATMs in Athens

 

The window to withdraw euros left in Greek banks is closing.

 

Bank deposits are at the lowest level since 2004, according to the Greek national bank. Greeks have withdrawn up to a billion euros a day in recent weeks.

 

On the expectation of a political deal in Brussels this week, the European Central Bank raised the limits on the emergency liquidity credits (ELA) to ease the squeeze on Greek several times and to €89 billion by the end of the week, a level not seen before.

 

The talks failed. Merkel and French François Hollande gave Tsipras another ultimatum on Friday, and he responded with his angry midnight surprise.

 

Soon after the speech, lines formed at ATM machines in Athens and included, as one resident told POLITICO, “people in pajamas, folks dressed up ready to go out for drinks.” People are reporting not being able to take cash out. The large Alpha bank announced on Saturday that banking services would be of “limited functionality.”

 

It may already be too late, but caveat Greek depositor.

4. The more important meeting is in Frankfurt

 

The most immediate call is the ECB’s.

 

Greek Deputy Prime Minister Yannis Dragasakis is due to visit Frankfurt as soon as this weekend to ask for the ECB’s help to keep Greece’s banks stay open during the run-up to the referendum, Greek officials said. An ECB source says the request for that meeting may be declined, and it’s unlikely that any high-ranking ECB officials will meet with the Greeks bilaterally in Frankfurt. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis will be in the same room with ECB President Mario Draghi at the Eurogroup meeting today in Brussels.

 

The central bankers in Frankfurt who consider themselves to be above politics are being pushed to take a highly political decision: Keep the money coming or deny further loans and let the Greek banking system collapse.

 

If Draghi and the rest of the ECB board step in, they will have taken the bank into uncharted territory. The ECB’s mandate is only to maintain price stability in the eurozone. There’s nothing there about providing what would be widely seen as government financing.

 

Then again Draghi did famously promise in 2012 to do “whatever it takes to preserve the euro” — though he didn’t mention Greece in that speech.

 

It’s a hard decision for the ECB.

5. A week in purgatory. Then maybe hell

 

Tsipras has introduced so many unknowns this week that Greece’s future is more uncertain than ever.

 

At present, the Greek electorate isn’t providing much more clarity. Polls show that 80 percent of Greeks want the country to remain in the euro. But Tsipras’s Syriza party consistently places first in those polls.

 

A referendum majority against the creditors’ proposal that Tsipras is seeking would renew his mandate to push for a different deal with the creditors, but on current political and economic course Greece would more likely be pushed into bankruptcy and probably out of the euro. A majority for a proposal that Tsipras opposes would, in almost any mature democracy, force his resignation, fresh elections and possible political paralysis.

 

One way or the other, Tsipras no longer has much control over his country’s fate.

 

http://www.politico.eu/article/will-grexit-happen-tsipras-referendum-merkel-ecb-bank-run-greece/

[vememah]

FT-ov briselski dopisnik takođe javlja da će referendum biti besmislen, jer ponude neće biti na stolu:

 

 

Iz Sirize izgleda stvarno očekuju da će im ova najava referenduma pomoći da se dogovore sa kreditorima, pa su pomakli glasanje za još 5 sati na ponoć:

Edited June 27, 2015 by vememah

[Prospero]

OK, bank run it is.

[vememah]

Krihbaum (CDU): Cipras je izvukao šteker

 

 

Strim debate u grčkom parlamentu:

https://parltv.live.grnet.gr/webtv/

Edited June 27, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Evrogrupa počinje u 2, dosad niko nije dao izjave sem ovoga:

 

 

Maltežani: Cipras je neodgovoran

 

Prime Minister Joseph Muscat said this morning that while the Greek government's decision to hold a referendum on the EU's bailout offer was legitimate and could be anticipated, it's timing so late in the day was irresponsible

 

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Edward Scicluna described the timing of the Greek government’s decision to hold a referendum on its bailout programme as “a surprise”.

 

He said the referendum option had been mooted way back when discussions started with the leftist Greek government elected in January but nobody expected the referendum to be held six days after Greece’s repayment deadline.

 

“Everybody knew when the deadline was so the timing is surprising since during recent negotiations it was always understood the Greek government would seek parliamentary approval for the new deal,” Prof. Scicluna told Times of Malta from Brussels.

 

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20150627/local/pm-edward-scicluna-hit-out-at-timing-of-greek-referendum.574281

 

Edited June 27, 2015 by vememah

[Anduril]

Ova odluka Tsiprasa o referendumu je OK.

 

Bilo je dovoljno debata i sada je vreme na Grcima da odluce sta im je vaznije - potpuni nacionalni suverenitet pod drahmom ili ograniceni suverenitet pod evrom.

 

Neka posteno glasaju sta im je vaznije.

Mene vise brine kako i da li su se svi spremili za posledice.

Normalno bi bilo da postoji odredjen prelazni period da bi ekonomija ostala na nogama.

[MancMellow]

Nema načina da se savršeno spremiš za posledice najvećeg defaulta u istoriji...u slučaju da glas bude "oxi". Mada...ima ovde još da se igra, što bi rekli fudbalski komentatori

Edited June 27, 2015 by MancMellow

[Prospero]

^^ Da, ali će elektorat biti prilično naelektrisan i bez zaista jasnih predstava o posledicama jedne ili druge odluke (u stvari, za "da" su manje više svesni, ako ponuda Brisela ostane na stolu). Referendum je OK, ali ovaj način je sulud.

[vememah]

Dijsselbloem: Greeks have "closed the door" on talks

 

A very dejected looking eurogroup president arrives. He says he was " very negatively surprised by the decision of the Greek government. They have apparently rejected the last proposal on the table" and proposed a negative referendum "with negative advice to the Greek people."

 

"That is a sad decision for Greece as it has closed the door on further talks."

 

He says he will discuss "future consquences" with Mr Varoufakis.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11702478/Greece-crisis-live-shock-referendum-throws-bail-out-future-into-chaos-ahead-of-crunch-Brussels-meeting.html

 

 

 

Edited June 27, 2015 by vememah

[Anduril]

Pa posledice nikome nisu jasne do kraja.

 

Jedino sto je sigurno jeste da dalje otezanje i uzajamno ucenjivanje ima katastrofalne posledice za sve.

 

Obe strane su imale dovoljno vremena da se pripreme i sada je doslo vreme da se poloze karte.

[vememah]

Redovi izgleda i na pumpama i u marketima: