Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[Takeshi]

referendum ce biti i zvanicni pocetak kraja eu (kakvom su je do sada zamisljali).

[Аврам Гојић]

Ako Nemci/EZ odbiju da se ,,čuje volja naroda" i to po 2. put (setimo se kako zbog ideje o referendumu završila Papandreuova politička karijera) ispadaju bahati nasilnici, i to u situaciji gde uopšte nije jasno da bi Cipras referendum i dobio. Rezultat će biti glatka pobeda antiosteriti opcije

Nego sta nego ce odbiti.

[Аврам Гојић]

referendum ce biti i zvanicni pocetak kraja eu (kakvom su je do sada zamisljali).

 

Da. Sad zapravo ne mogu da zamislim da referendum ne prodje onako kako je Cipras trazio.

Mislim da je zrelo za pbp.

[Takeshi]

[vememah]

[vememah]

[Prospero]

DIkson objasnio.

 

 

Šta je referendumsko pitanje? Ponuda Brisela danas nije isto što i ponuda 5. jula, ne može da bude ni pukom političkom voljom jer moraju nacionalni parlamenti da produže važenje.

[vememah]

 

I prva reakcija opozicije

Edited June 26, 2015 by vememah

[Аврам Гојић]

I sta sad, trazice da im se produzi ELA, sto ce biti uradjeno samo ako Grcka pristane na capital controls od ponedeljka? Neki kompromis izmedju ta dva ne cini mi se bas mnogo verovatan.

[Prospero]

Više ne znam šta da mislim, ovo je neverovatan leadership fail.

[vememah]

Naravno, ako je već hteo referendum, CIpras je morao da ga raspiše na vreme, tj. za prošli vikend.

 

Veliko je pitanje hoće li i uz kontrolu protoka kapitala ELA biti produžena posle 30. i defaulta.

 

[Аврам Гојић]

uz rizik da budem trivijalan, ali ima li Grcka para za referendum?

[Prospero]

Koliko može da košta, par stotina miliona, valjda mogu da istresu džepove za toliko.

[MancMellow]

Realno ne znam sta da mislim, ali ocigledno da ovakav deal sa kreditorima ne bi prosao parlament, niti Syrizu, niti ANEL zbog ovoga sa ostrvima. U tom slucaju je svejedno. Ne volim referendume, jer kao i u slucaju britanskog (znam kako zvuci poredjenje, ali jeste) ovo je zapravo pokusaj da se partija sacuva od cepanja.

 

@Prospero

 

Syriza nije stranka kao i svaka druga, leadership u njoj se malo razlikuje. Prvo sto je fakticki koalicija, a drugo sto je grassroots pokret. Mislim da bi neka "obicna" stranka mogla da prihvati ono sto je ponudjeno juce/danas. Ovo pocinje da lici na Julsku krizu.

 

Tek kad sam procitao ovaj gore tekst o IMF-u mi je postalo jasno da je bitka koju je Syriza vodila protiv Institucija u stvari ne jedna nego bar dve. Veliko su sranje napravili sa Grckom, svi zajedno. Od Grka (prvenstveno onih prethodnih na vlasti) do EU kreditora i na kraju IMF-a. ECB da ne zaboravim, posebno na samom pocetku.

Edited June 26, 2015 by MancMellow

[vememah]

Pogled sa Sirizine strane, Pol Mejson:

 

Tsipras goes for referendum on 5 July

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras has just called a referendum on 5 July. This after spending most of the week locked in discussions with creditors, in which no deal emerged. Here’s a quick recap — and why its likely Greece will vote no.

1. Last Sunday the Greek cabinet agreed the biggest ever compromise with lenders over short-term fiscal targets. Instead of trying to split the difference between 1bn and 2bn in 2015 they agreed to do 2bn austerity and more the next year. Their aim was to force the lenders to throw in debt relief, without which a short term budget deal is meaningless. Their argument to their own base was: this is redistributive austerity.
2. On Monday, even as their own supporters reeled at the climbdown, President Hollande got behind the now €8bn austerity plan. But it quicly became clear the IMF would not sign it off. As I blogged, it was economically illiterate of the EU to agree to a massive tax hike in a depressed country, and so the IMF nixed it.
3. From midweek onwards the IMF tried to reinsert minor details that would make it less redistributive — which the Greek government could not deliver. Even the Greek centre, called to Brussels to be moulded into an unelected government of national unity, expressed concern over it.
4. By yesterday, what proved the clincher, the Greek side were saying: after all this, we get to the latest documents and we’re prepared to consider agreeing it with the institutions if they can give us something on debt relief — and then the Eurogroup signalled the deal was “too soft” and the voters of Finland, Germany etc would not accept it.
5. So Tsipras has called the referendum on the Troika offer. This is the masterstroke he has been waiting to play. The question will be: will you sign up to the economically illiterate, forever indebted plan offered by the IMF/EU or give us a democratic mandate to resist it, even if they crash our banks. Whaterver you make of this logic sitting outside Greece, it is primed to deliver the no camp a victory.
6. Even the word no has meaning. Oxi is a big act of resistance in Greece going back to the Italian occupation. Ne is not such a powerful word.
7. Tsipras also had to deal with the social democratic wing of Syriza who wanted to sign a deal and stay in power at any cost. He has effectively put them back into a box: they were offered nothing to sell by the Troika in the end — the institutional deal was not backed by the Eurogroup.
8. Where now? The ECB cannot pull ELA unless Greece is out of the programme. They will likely extend the programme to 5 July, but some will push to end it Monday. The Greek right on twitter is even now trying to spark a bank run.
9. So the question is: does the referendum take place in an atmosphere of calm and democratic functioning, or is there chaos outside parliament enough for people to panic and vote Yes, even if there are enough mainstream parties prepared to vote yes?
10. If Greece votes no to a quasi-Troika deal, the north European electorate are staring at the loss of €320bn taxpayers money, and the ECB will be seen as non-credible, and the IMF will have lost the biggest amount of money in its history.
11. If the ECB pulls ELA early, I have no doubt Greece will immediately default on €27bn SMP bonds issued under Greek law.
12. It may come down to: who has the biggest social power on the streets — the Greek left, inclduing the KKE, Syriza, the unions etc — or the right. Which is what Greek history has always tried not to ask since 1974.

https://medium.com/@paulmasonnews/tsipras-goes-for-referendum-on-5-july-bf4c58d02534