Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[MancMellow]

 

 

 increasing pension contributions, health payments by retirees and a new tax on businesses. 

 

Prvo i trece moze da prodje i kao nesto sto nije u nekoj velikoj suprotnosti sa ideologijom stranke. Dakle ne dira bruto plate, ali dira neto plate i povecava poreze. Jedino sto su obe te mere lose za posao, Zvuci kao kompromis, ali treba sacekati detalje.

[Prospero]

Sir Max ima svoj POV:
 
 

 

MAX HASTINGS: Any deal stitched up with the Greeks will be a victory for cowardice - and only make the euro crisis worse
By MAX HASTINGS FOR THE DAILY MAIL
LISHED: 00:34 GMT, 23 June 2015 

We like to believe that the nations of Europe are governed by sensible people. Yet the Greek fiasco, imbroglio, shipwreck — choose your own word — suggests otherwise, as does a good deal of history.

Indeed, back in 1910, the bright and cynical general commanding the British Army’s staff college told his students that he regarded a continental war as inevitable. One officer leapt to his feet and said that only ‘inconceivable stupidity on the part of statesmen’ could bring about such a catastrophe. The general responded derisively: ‘Inconceivable stupidity is just what you are going to get.’ And so, of course, they did, in 1914.

This time, fortunately, the stakes are mere euros and drachmas rather than torrents of blood. But it has been impossible to watch the march of the euro since its introduction in 1999 without awed disbelief that so many politicians and bankers with more degrees and diplomas than any Mastermind winner could have made such colossal misjudgments, which have continued this week at the Eurogroup emergency summit in Brussels.

It was ridiculous to create a common currency in the absence of a common system of government. It was madness to join together a clutch of northern nations that pay taxes, respect agreements and are reasonably uncorrupt with such countries as Italy, Spain and, above all, Greece, where honest men inspire derision. Successive Greek governments, empowered to borrow with the unlimited backing of the European Central Bank, went on a spending spree worthy of Saudi princesses let loose in London’s Bond Street. Greece has always been a poor country, with little to sell abroad that anyone wanted save its ruins and its beauty.

Suddenly, the 20 per cent of the workforce employed by the state found themselves enjoying soaring wages and gold-plated pensions. The payment of taxes, never a Greek custom, was abolished. Scarcely a voter in the land went unbribed. Greek ministers told their creditors loftily: ‘Send the bill to Berlin.’ It was the 2008 financial crash that precipitated a collision with reality — the discovery that Greece, like Ireland and Spain, was effectively bankrupt. But where the Irish and Spanish have made heroic efforts to regain solvency, though only the former have succeeded, the Greeks drove ever deeper into the red.

The last government’s attempt at an austerity programme put a quarter of the population onto the dole and prompted revolt. The Greeks then elected a government of Leftists who pledged to resist all further economies and, indeed, to reverse past ones. It is less fit to run a nation than a school debating society, but it represents the democratic choice of an EU nation. 

 

Yet what is most astonishing is not the behaviour of the Greeks, whose reputation for improvidence was forged around the third century BC, but that of the rest of Europe. Instead of confronting the unsustainability of their member-ship, which was based on faked national accounts, the leaders of Germany, France, the Netherlands and the rest have colluded in ever-more desperate efforts to believe six impossible things before breakfast. Or rather, they stubbornly pretend the Greek government, which has repeatedly reneged on its debts and promises of reform, will mend its ways. 

 

Former governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King is today much criticised for having misjudged the 2008 financial crisis. Whether or not that is fair, I’ve always found him to be a shrewd, far-sighted man. Four years ago, he made a series of private remarks about the euro. First, he said he was convinced it was not viable for the long term. He argued that for Greece, Spain, Portugal and probably also Italy to remain members condemned them to eternal austerity because of their inability to keep up with the northern Europeans. This would generate political extremism in the societies of the Mediterranean countries that might prove uncontrollable. Mr King went on to suggest that if the southern Europeans dropped out of the euro, there would be financial turmoil for a time, but we might all be pleasantly surprised how quickly equilibrium could be restored, with a prospect of new life for the drop-outs with deeply devalued currencies. However, he warned that the longer the leaders of Europe delayed facing such an outcome, the worse the final bust-up was likely to be. He suggested history will think less well of German Chancellor Angela Merkel than Europe does today because she alone has the power, but has lacked the will, to take the radical steps needed to solve the euro’s problems. 

Well, here we all are four years on from Mr King’s prognosis and the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras is a more reckless standard bearer for political extremism than the former governor of the Bank of England dreamed of. Meanwhile, Merkel and her fellow European leaders refuse to give up, still striving to produce some face-saving ‘deal’ that will allow the euro to stagger on as before and permit Greece to go on pretending it is a functioning 21st-century state instead of the basket case everyone knows it to be.

Economists pen magisterial columns in Europe’s financial press, asserting that averting a Greek debt default and preserving the euro are objectives that transcend all others. If Greece is allowed to go broke, they say, the credibility of the single currency is destroyed; contagion means Spain could go next, then maybe Italy. In short, most pundits urge giving the Greeks the cash to go on buying German BMWs. Yet unless someone insists that a deal is a deal, and cannot endlessly be renegotiated; that debts must be paid and rules kept; that the Greeks cannot have the sort of welfare and pension privileges they dream of, where does this game stop?

The Greek government stubbornly refuses to adopt any measure that would hit the pockets of its political clients, especially the bloated state employment sector. Its leaders propose, instead, to raise taxes on the rich, which offers no prospect of making the country solvent. The nation will depend on the Germans to pay its bills from here to eternity. 
 
No one can pretend any of the choices facing the European governments are happy ones. If they cut loose the renegades, Athens is unlikely to behave more responsibly in the future than in the past, while Greece will remain a member of the EU. Yet the Greeks do not even pretend they are willing to change their ways. With less finesse than the average highwayman, they are demanding a debt amnesty and another hand-out. 

 

Last night, the latest talking shop broke up with hopes expressed that an agreement between all parties might be reached on Thursday. But if the Greeks are once again given more time to pay the debts they can’t afford, it will be plain the leaders of Europe lack any stomach for facing hard truths. They preside over a currency system that has gone horribly wrong — and can never hope to go right until the passengers unable to pay their fares are put ashore — but refuse to admit it.

Thank heavens the price of today’s abject failure of Europe’s leaders is not war, as it was in 1914.

But not for a moment should we be fooled that any deal stitched up in Brussels this week represents a triumph of statesmanship. It is, instead, a victory for prevarication, cowardice and self-deceit that will almost certainly lead to worse things for Europe in the end.

 

[vememah]

Pregovori izgleda škripe jer je MMF nezadovoljan, Cipras pozvan na sastanak pre sutrašnje Evrogrupe:

 

 

Pored tvrdog krila Sirize, i manji koalicioni partner Nezavisni Grci (ANEL) zateže u Grčkoj:

 

[MancMellow]

 

 

Europe is destroying Greece’s economy for no reason at all

all Europe has to do is say it isn't sure Greece's banks have enough cash to stay open, and people will pull their money out even faster than before. That's what happened when European officials leaked that they weren't sure Greece's banks could make it past Monday, and followed it up by saying they might have to stop people from moving their money out of the country. That's yelling run in a crowded bank. And it worked. Greek depositors pulled out three times as much as normal the past few days, and that's left their banks even more at the mercy of the ECB — which has forced the government to either leave the euro or accept Europe's terms.

Greece gave in. Well, mostly. It's proposing to cut its pensions about half as much as Europe wants — raising contributions and retirement ages, as well as cutting back on early retirement — and then raising taxes to make up for the rest. Specifically, it would levy a new tax on corporate profits and increase its value-added tax, basically a national sales tax, to 23 percent on all but a handful of items. In all, this would be a fiscal tightening of 1.5 percent of gross domestic product this year and 2.9 percent the next.

The only thing holding up a deal is that Europe thinks this is the wrong kind of austerity. Spending cuts don't seem to be as bad for the economy as tax hikes, so that's what Europe wants Greece to do. On the one hand, this is sound economic advice. But on the other, are you freaking kidding me? It's like making someone commit suicide, and then disapproving of how they did it . The real question is why Europe is forcing Greece to do any more austerity at all. It's already done so much that, before this latest showdown, it actually had a budget surplus before interest payments. And that's all it should shoot for, really: the point at which it doesn't need any more bailouts from Europe. Anything more than that, though, would just inflict unnecessary — and self-defeating! — harm to the economy. When interest rates are zero, like they are now, budget cuts of 3 percent of GDP would, by Paul Krugman's calculation, make the economy shrink something like 7.5 percent. So even though you have less debt, your debt burden isn't much better since you have less money to pay it back.

There's only one reason to make Greece do more austerity, and it makes no sense at all. That's to try to make it pay back what it owes. Indeed, one European official said that the entire point of this was that they "want to get our money back some day." The problem, though, is everybody knows Greece will never do that. Its debt should have been written down in 2010, but it wasn't because it was "bailed out" to the extent that it was given money to then give to French and German banks. The longer Europe pretends this new debt will be paid back, the longer Greece's depression will go on. Now, it's true that Europe has lowered the interest rates and extended the maturities on Greece's debt so far out that, for now at least, it's like a lot of it doesn't exist. But eventually it will, and at that point they'll either need to extend-and-pretend some more or hope that Greece has returned to growth.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/06/23/europe-is-destroying-greeces-economy-for-no-reason-at-all/

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0-_Ntc54PE

 

ceo intervju

 

http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2015/06/22/intv-amanpour-pleitgen-greece-lawrence-summers.cnn

[Prospero]

Zadnji predlog iz Atine:
 
http://s.kathimerini.gr/resources/article-files/protasi--2.pdf
 
 
MMF je i dalje nezadovoljan, per svega zbog dizanja poreza koji onemogućiti rast:
 

Differences Persist as Creditors Scrutinize Greek Bailout Offer

Lingering divisions between Athens and some creditors suggest tough talks still lie ahead
By 
MARCUS WALKER[/size] in Athens and
GABRIELE STEINHAUSER[/size] in Brussels


Updated June 23, 2015 9:33 p.m. ET

Greece’s lenders scrutinized a proposal seen as a potential breakthrough on a last-minute bailout deal on Tuesday, but the concerns of some creditors suggest that days of tough negotiations lie ahead before an agreement can be clinched.
 
After months of deadlock, European leaders emerged the day before from a string of meetings in Brussels optimistic over a Greek concession on pensions. Officials hope that eurozone finance ministers can sign off on a policy package agreed to between Greece and the institutions overseeing its bailout program—the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and European Central Bank—on Wednesday.

“I am convinced we will find an agreement, as an agreement is now possible this week,” European Economic Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said in an interview with French radio France Inter on Tuesday.

But the IMF is still unhappy with key aspects of Greece’s new economic proposals, and German officials expressed irritation with the speed with which the commission welcomed them, warning that much work still needs to be done.
A summit of European leaders on Thursday and Friday could be the final chance to find a solution if Wednesday’s meeting fails.
Time is running out. Greece needs to secure financing in some form before June 30, when it is due to repay a €1.55 billion ($1.73 billion) loan from the IMF. Europe’s part of Greece’s €245 billion bailout program also expires on that date.

The European Central Bank on Tuesday increased the emergency liquidity provided to Greek banks for the third time in three days. Nervous Greek depositors had been withdrawing deposits from lenders at a rate of about €1 billion a day late last week. The rate slowed Monday to between €500 million to €700 million, according to bank officials.

Failure to reach and ratify a deal by the end of the month is highly likely to prompt the ECB to curtail that assistance. Such a move would force Greece to impose capital controls, dealing a severe blow to its long-suffering economy.

Markets have rallied on the glimmer of hope for a deal. In equity markets, the Stoxx Europe 600 was 1.5% higher, building on Monday’s 2.3% gain. Greece’s Athex Composite climbed 5%.
Germany’s DAX climbed 1.4% after logging its biggest one-day rise in nearly three years on Monday. France’s CAC-40 was up 1.5%.
Greece’s plan calls for reducing the deficits in its pension system and government budget by relying heavily on raising taxes and social-security contributions, whereas the IMF wanted bigger spending cuts.

Greece’s government, led by the left-wing Syriza party, is finding it politically difficult to identify major spending cuts because those tend to affect key Syriza constituencies such as civil servants and pensioners.

The Greek government is seeking to tap businesses and middle-class households with tax increases.
The Washington-based IMF has said Greece’s economy is already too heavily taxed and that too many additional tax increases would hurt economic growth, making it harder to pay down Greece’s debt.

“It is still short of everything that should be expected,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Monday, suggesting Greece would have to alter its proposals significantly to win IMF backing.

Some differences also remain on the details of an overhaul of Greece’s value-added taxes, where creditors have demanded increased revenue and the government is trying to limit the extent of tax increases that would hit its lower-income supporters.

IMF representatives have told European officials that they also aren’t satisfied yet by Greece’s broader economic overhaul plans beyond its budgetary promises. The IMF sees a wider, business-friendly shake-up of Greece’s economy as essential if the country is to improve its long-term economic growth.

Germany, the eurozone’s dominant power, made it clear during Monday’s summit that it wants the IMF to be satisfied with Greece’s economic program. “Unauthorized personalities shouldn’t be raising some kind of expectations,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told reporters on Monday in Brussels, alluding to a tweet by the commission’s chief of staff, who had called the Greek proposals “a good basis for progress.”

German leaders have stressed that they won’t agree to disburse any bailout funds to Greece unless the IMF has also approved Athens’s policy package and is willing to continue lending itself.
 

MARKET TALK
Greece May Be Proposing the Wrong Kind of Deal

The good news about Greece is that both sides see the proposals presented by Athens on Monday morning as a basis for a potential deal, says Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg. The bad news is that Greece is putting forward the wrong kind of deal, he says. Within the overall parameters set by creditors, Athens proposes almost exclusively tax rises rather than pro-growth structural reforms and well-targeted expenditure cuts. “This would repeat the key mistake of the early 2010-2013 bailout programs for Greece, namely to hit aggregate demand too hard instead of raising supply fast,” Mr. Schmieding says. Nonetheless, whether or not there will be a deal in the next few days remains unclear, the economist adds.(emese.bartha@wsj.com; @EmeseBartha)
Market Talk is a stream of real-time news and market analysis that is available on Dow Jones Newswires.

 

June 23, 2015 6:28 pm
Greek proposal may deliver a deal, but economists despair
Ferdinando Giugliano, Economics Correspondent

The Greek government’s latest proposal has raised confidence that a deal with the country’s creditors may soon be at hand after months of rancour, and that Athens will remain part of the eurozone.

Yet, beyond the immediate relief, there are widespread doubts among analysts that the measures will do much to address the deep-rooted problems of the Greek economy that have contributed to the crisis.

If anything, many Greece-watchers fear the focus on fiscal consolidation and tax increases may trigger a repeat of what has happened over the past six years: a Greece that stumbles from one rescue programme to the next, rather than being able to stand on its own feet.

“Yesterday’s [Tuesday] progress on Greece is good enough to significantly increase the probability of a deal,” said Erik Nielsen, chief economist at UniCredit. “[but] the Greek proposal is way too heavy on one-off measures, on the wrong taxes in general and not enough on real reforms.”

The Greek government and its lenders appear to be converging towards Athens running a primary surplus — net of interest payments — of 1 per cent this year.

However, some economists fear this steep fiscal adjustment may simply deepen the recession that Greece re-entered in the last quarter after some signs of growth in the early part of 2014.

“It’s all fiscal, that’s why I despair,” Richard Portes, an economist at London Business School, explained. “The fiscal targets are not feasible, the economy will continue to contract, uncertainty will persist.” Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan, calculated that the measures might shave 1.5 percentage points from Greece’s growth rate over the 12 months after a deal is implemented. But, he added, a successful outcome from the negotiations might also help to boost confidence. For all its obsession with fiscal measures, analysts fear the package does too little to address the longstanding rigidities in the Greek product and labour markets that constrain growth. Some also complain it is too timid when it comes to state asset sales.

Ralf Preusser, a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said: “The package puts little emphasis on structural reforms and is still undoing some measures. Proposals on privatisations [also] do not seem to go the extra mile.”

Some economists are sceptical of the plan to levy higher taxes on business, raising corporation tax from 26 per cent to 29 per cent. While the leftwing Syriza party believes this measure will help to spread the cost of the fiscal adjustment more fairly, there are fears this may damage the economy’s overall competitiveness.

There are also doubts about the decision to increase workers’ and employers’ contributions to the pension system, which analysts believe may stifle economic growth and prevent companies from recruiting.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, a Hamburg-based bank, said: “Higher contributions would reduce aggregate demand and make it more expensive to employ workers in a double whammy to the outlook for Greek employment. That is not the best way to do it, to put it mildly.”

Edited June 24, 2015 by Prospero

[Tribun_Populi]

 

Within the overall parameters set by creditors, Athens proposes almost exclusively tax rises rather than pro-growth structural reforms and well-targeted expenditure cuts. “This would repeat the key mistake of the early 2010-2013 bailout programs for Greece, namely to hit aggregate demand too hard instead of raising supply fast,” Mr. Schmieding says.

 

Ovo je klasični block-out. Šatro povećanje poreza teško pogađa agregatnu tražnju, ali je zato ne pogađa smanjenje penzija i plata i otpuštanje iz javnog sektora što traži MMF. Dokaz više da se borba vodi što u ideološkoj ravni, što u švabovskom partikularnom interesu da u korenu suzbiju potencijalno zaraznu ideju jačeg oporezivanja srednjih i viših klasa stanovništva koji posle neće imati za BMW, direktno nauštrb njihove izvozne privrede.

[Prospero]

Kako je u švabovskom interesu da se smanjuju plate i penzije, ko će onda kupovati BMW?

 

NIje poenta da će ekonomija da padne na nižu ravnotežnu tačku (jer hoće svakako), poenta je da li će imati neke osnove za rast nakon toga. Manji porezi se obično smatraju boljim boosterom za to.

[MancMellow]

Zato sam i kvoutovao ovo 

 

 

 

On the one hand, this is sound economic advice. But on the other, are you freaking kidding me? It's like making someone commit suicide, and then disapproving of how they did it .

[Prospero]

S tim da to nije "suicid", ima života i posle 30. juna, ne završavaju se stvari na ovome jer će i za 6 meseci i za 2 godine teme biti vrlo slične.

[MancMellow]

pa sa ovim dilom ce definitivno biti i za 5 godina. U stvari, sa bilo kojim dilom koji se ne bude bavio i dugom.

[Muwan]

NIje poenta da će ekonomija da padne na nižu ravnotežnu tačku (jer hoće svakako), poenta je da li će imati neke osnove za rast nakon toga. Manji porezi se obično smatraju boljim boosterom za to.

 

Ako pretpostavimo da matematička činjenica koja kaže da je 21<23, sama po sebi dovoljna da se kaže: "Evo, imamo manje poreze i to će biti booster za rast" onda OK. Ali bojim se da više nema nikakve veze da li će grčka vlada dalje dizati poreze ili ih ostaviti tamo gde su sada. Investicije neće doći, što zbog poreza koji su već dovoljno visoki što zbog opšte nesigurnosti što zbog opasnosti da u bilo kom trenutku ti porezi mogu da nastave da rastu ako zagusti.

 

Na to dodaš strukturu grčke ekonomije koja je takva kakva je, i jasno ti je da tu od rasta nema ništa.

[MancMellow]

S tim sto je do sada o rastu u pregovorima pricala samo jedna strana - grcka. Ostali su se uglavnom pravili kao da je to non-factor

[Muwan]

Pale neke gorke optužbe na račun kreditora jutros. To valjda treba da olakša postizanje dogovora na današnjem sastanku.

[Muwan]

Ali i kreditori konja za trku imaju: MMF je uputio kontrapredlog koji predviđa jači udar na penzije i ukidanje niže poreske stope na ostrvima u Egeju (što je crvena linija za ANEL).

 

Odjednom stvari više ne izgledaju tako obećavajuće, hm...

[Anduril]

auf. ajd samo ova druga teza:

 

po cemu je bas syriza pored micotakisa, papaandreua i slicnih klijentelisticka?

 

posto vec znas da nijedna grcka vlada nikada nece biti u stanju da sprovede reforme, sta raditi sa grckom?

 

Gde sam napisao da je samo Siriza klijentelisticka? Problem je cela elita i uopste dominantna politicka kultura klijentelizma.

Ne postoji apsolutno nijedan jedini razlog da Grcka bude tretirana drugacije od slicnih klijentelistickih i koruptnih zemalja regiona.

 

Drugo, Grcku ocigledno treba izbaciti iz evra jer je jeftina valuta jedini nacin da ostane kompetitivna i tako nekako prezivi na nivou susednih zemalja poput Bugarske ili Albanije.

 

Drugi nacin su bile strukturne reforme koje se ocigledno nece desiti cak i ako se grcka politicka elita prinudi na politicko samoubistvo ovim dilovima i rezovima. Oni ce radije poneti zemlju u ponor nego da ukinu beneficije, monopole, korupciju i izbegavanje poreza koji im unistavaju privredu od kako postoje.

 

Ovde na topiku se ocigledno ne shvata jedna prosta stvar - tzv. osteriti politika i budzetska restriktivnost je dizajnirana da izvrsi pritisak na politicke elite slabijih korisnika jake valute da konacno (posle 20 i vise godina) izvrse strukturne reforme koje su odavno obecali kad su ulazili u EU a jos vise u Evrozonu. U dobra vremena realno niko ne sprovodi reforme.

Neki ih izvrsavaju a neki ne u skladu sa politickom kulturom i to je to - oni koji ih izvrsavaju treba da ostanu a oni koji to nisu u stanju moraju da imaju na raspolaganju uredjen mehanizam izlaska iz unije.

 

Te reforme su jedini garant da ce EU u buducnosti ostati prosperitetna u odnosu na SAD i Aziju sto je mnogo vaznije nego da li ce jedna ili dve clanice ostati izvan Evrozone.

 

1. generalizacija + predviđanje budućnosti

2. baš je Syriza primer klijentelizma... + opet predviđanje budućnosti

3. Ta (pravna) država ne postoji. Pravila se poštuju od onog momenta kad se kao takva (federalna) uvedu

 

At Aram

 

Pa izbaciti je, kao i ostale balkanske zgubidane, dabome. 

 

Ali meni je najbolje kako sad ekonomija nema veze :D

 

Ispravno predvidjanje buducnosti je jedan od pokazatelja ispravne analize.

 

Pa nema tih pravila koja će odgovarati svima u Evropi.

 

S druge strane, nek uvedu i fiksalnu uniju, tj. zaokruže ekonomski projekat, pa onda sink or swim, nek se uvedu pravila uz razne izlazne tj penalne mehanizme. Ali to neće uraditi zato što - wait for it - neće Berlin da presipa pare. Dakle nema one-size-fits-all rešenja, pa tako ni the pravila™ na smislenim osnovama koje bi bilo preče i starije od političkih gibanja i demokratije. 

 

Jedno od pravila u EU bi trebala recimo biti ujednacena procedura registrovanja firme online i u pet koraka za nedelju dana kao u nekim clanicama.

Kako sada takva pravila (koja sa vec guraju kroz razne direktive a blokiraju ih sistematski nacionalni parlamenti poput grckog) ne odgovaraju svima?

Naravno da odgovaraju svima kao Evropljanima, ali ne odgovaraju svim nacionalno-monopolistickim interesnim grupama.

Sto se tice prosipanja para - Berlin je prosipao vec ohoho a da delovi federacije placaju za bankrot drugih delova toga nema recimo ni u Svajcarskoj ili u SAD.

Najveci protivnici fiskalne unije sigurno nisu u Berlinu nego tamo gde nece da im spolja nalazu da treba recimo da placaju porez. Ne tako davno su iz Atine izbacili francuske i nemacke poreske eksperte koji su trebali da pomognu u uspostavljanju funkcionalnog poreskog sistema. To je jedna od tih strukturnih reformi o kojima govorim i bez kojih clanice jednostavno ne bi smele da budu u istoj monetarnoj zoni.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Anduril