Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[MancMellow]

Jos jedan pametan tekst, ali, hej, kome to treba, kad moze verovati u to da ce povecanje poreza preporoditi ekonomiju i naciniti je sposobnijom da vraca dugove...

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/623460d6-0dcf-11e5-aa7b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3d4vIl4v6

Edited June 14, 2015 by MancMellow

[MancMellow]

E i ovo je dobro, ovo je ono sto sam ja pricao Andurilu sve vreme - nemojte ih uslovljavati suficitom, jer je besmisleno, uslovlavajte ih reformama

 

 

 

Sadly, the leaks to the international press on the ongoing negotiations between Greece and the institutions indicate that once more, the discussions are centred on fiscal issues – and to some lesser extent on pensions and further labour market liberalisation. Yet while Greece should not revert to the era of deficits and establishing a sustainable social security system is needed, it is disappointing that there is not much discussion on the major structural deficiencies of the Greek economy. The new programme should focus on opening-up closed and oligopolistic product markets, removing barriers to entry and expansion, reducing red tape, and tackling tax evasion. The new programme should also focus on public administration reform and on building institutional capacity. It is time to tackle the deep issues rather than myopically focusing on fiscal measures.

 

http://www.voxeu.org/article/greece-seeking-way-forward

[Budja]

O, da. 

Samo, zasto Grcka nije izasla sa tom vrstom predloga i javnom kampanjom u tom smislu?

Cenim jer bi to znacilo i dalja otpustanja u javnom sektoru a to nece da moze.

[MancMellow]

Pa ne, ne pita se valjda duznik, nego kreditor. Dakle, pitanje je zasto im traze, realno, nemoguce, a ne uslove ih monitoringom reformi. Ne egzekutvom, nego monitoringom, na osnovu koga ce se odlucivati dalje. Nije Grcka odredjivala uslove bail-outa. I nemojmo se zavaravati, moze Tsipras da izadje sa prepisanim (i, naravno, malo razradjenim) identicnim ovim sto ovde pise - odjebali bi ga na keca isto ovako. I gore. 

Edited June 15, 2015 by MancMellow

[aram]

Jos jedan pametan tekst, ali, hej, kome to treba, kad moze verovati u to da ce povecanje poreza preporoditi ekonomiju i naciniti je sposobnijom da vraca dugove...

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/623460d6-0dcf-11e5-aa7b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3d4vIl4v6

ne daju, premium subscribers only :(

[MancMellow]

ne daju, premium subscribers only :(

 

pm :)

[hazard]

aj šibni i meni pliz :)

[vememah]

Glavni ekonomista MMF-a u blogpostu o pregovorima tvrdi da su Grci sada toliko u g... da dila ne može biti bez restrukturiranja duga, a ako se ispostavi da se zacrtani ciljevi ne ostvaruju, onda i bez novog direktnog otpisa duga, što je big political no-no u zemljama Evrozone.

 

Greece: A Credible Deal Will Require Difficult Decisions By All Sides

Posted on June 14, 2015 by iMFdirect

 

By Olivier Blanchard

 

The status of negotiations between Greece and its official creditors – the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF – dominated headlines last week.  At the core of the negotiations is a simple question: How much of an adjustment has to be made by Greece, how much has to be made by its official creditors?

 

In the program agreed in 2012 by Greece with its European partners, the answer was:   Greece was to generate enough of a primary surplus to limit its indebtedness.  It also agreed to a number of reforms which should lead to higher growth.  In consideration, and subject to Greek implementation of the program, European creditors were to provide the needed financing, and provide debt relief if debt exceeded 120% by the end of the decade.

 

The primary surplus in the program was to be 3% in 2015, and 4.5% next year.   Economic and political developments have made this an unattainable goal, and the target clearly must be decreased.   It also included a number of reforms aimed at increasing medium term growth, and making the fiscal adjustment easier.   These also need to be reconsidered.

 

In this context, by how much should the primary surplus target be reduced?  A lower target leads to a less painful fiscal and economic adjustment for Greece. But it also leads to a need for more external official financing, and a commitment to more debt relief on the part of the European creditor countries.  Just as there is a limit to what Greece can do, there is a limit to how much financing and debt relief official creditors are willing and realistically able to provide given that they have their own taxpayers to consider.

 

How should the initial set of reforms be reassessed?  Greek citizens, through a democratic process, have indicated that there were some reforms they do not want. We believe that these reforms are needed, and that, absent these reforms, Greece will not be able to sustain steady growth, and the burden of debt will become even higher. Here again, there is a trade off:  To the extent that the pace of reform is slower, creditors will have to provide more debt relief.  Here again, there is a clear limit to what they are willing to do.

 

The offer made to the Greek government last week reflected these considerations and these tradeoffs.  It proposed to lower the medium term primary budget surplus target from 4.5% of GDP to 3.5%, and give Greece two more years to achieve that target—so the target for this year was reduced to 1%—and it asked for a more limited set of reforms.

 

For a deal along these lines to be effective and credible however, two conditions must be satisfied.

 

On the one hand, the Greek government has to offer truly credible measures to reach the lower target budget surplus, and it has to show its commitment to the more limited set of reforms.  We believe that even the lower new target cannot be credibly achieved without a comprehensive reform of the VAT – involving a widening of its base – and a further adjustment of pensions.  Why insist on pensions? Pensions and wages account for about 75% of primary spending; the other 25% have already been cut to the bone.  Pension expenditures account for over 16% of GDP, and transfers from the budget to the pension system are close to 10% of GDP.  We believe a reduction of pension expenditures of 1% of GDP (out of 16%) is needed, and that it can be done while protecting the poorest pensioners.  We are open to alternative ways for designing both the VAT and the pension reforms, but these alternatives have to add up and deliver the required fiscal adjustment.

 

On the other hand, the European creditors would have to agree to significant additional financing, and to debt relief sufficient to maintain debt sustainability. We believe that, under the existing proposal, debt relief can be achieved through a long rescheduling of debt payments at low interest rates.  Any further decrease in the primary surplus target, now or later, would probably require, however, haircuts.

 

These are tough choices, and tough commitments to be made on both sides.  We hope that agreement can be achieved along these lines.

 

http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2015/06/14/greece-a-credible-deal-will-require-difficult-decisions-by-all-sides/

Edited June 15, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

 Cipras: mi strpljivo cekamo da se kreditori urazume.

 

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ statement in Efimerida Ton Syntakton (EfSyn) newspaper on the issues relating to the current negotiation

 

June 15, 2015

One can only suspect political motives behind the institutions’insistence that new cuts be made to pensions despite five years of pillaging by the memoranda. The Greek government is negotiating with a plan, and has presented nuanced counterproposals.

 

We will patiently wait for the institutions adhere to realism. Those who perceive our sincere wish for a solution and our attempts to bridge the differences as a sign of weakness, should consider the following:

 

We are not simply shouldering a history laden with struggles.

 

We are shouldering the dignity of our people, as well as the hopes of the people of Europe. We cannot ignore this responsibility. This is not a matter of ideological stubbornness. This is about democracy.

 

We do not have the right to bury European democracy in the place where it was born.

 

http://www.primeminister.gov.gr/english/2015/06/15/prime-minister-alexis-tsipras-statement-in-efimerida-ton-syntakton-efsyn-newspaper-on-the-issues-relating-to-the-current-negotiation/

Edited June 15, 2015 by vememah

[Prospero]

Idu tračevi iz nemačkih medija da će EU uvesti capital control prema Grčkoj za vikend ako se ne postigne sporazum.

 

via TT

[Аврам Гојић]

Idu tračevi iz nemačkih medija da će EU uvesti capital control prema Grčkoj za vikend ako se ne postigne sporazum.

 

via TT

 

to mu dodje to onda? i kako EU moze da nametne CC Grckoj, preko kog mehanizma?

Edited June 15, 2015 by Грешни Василије

[Dagmar]

Idu tračevi iz nemačkih medija da će EU uvesti capital control prema Grčkoj za vikend ako se ne postigne sporazum.

 

via TT

 

Ne bi li to trebalo da bude nezakonito ako je neko punopravan član EU?

[Аврам Гојић]

 u bre, ovo pise Zidojce cajtung a ne neki sabanski tabloid.

[Аврам Гојић]

Mislim da sledi bank run.

[aram]

cisto da se podsetimo: