hazard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Erm, ono što se pisalo (svuda) je da nemaju para za plate i penzije za par meseci, zato i cela ova frka. Pod uslovom da treba da otplacuju dugove. Link to comment
MancMellow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Pod uslovom da treba da otplacuju dugove. mislim ne Link to comment
Anduril Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ama naravno, al to i dalje ne odgovara na ono moje pitanje. Zemlje kad su u očaju, makar bile i članice EU grebu gde god mogu i to je normalno. Pa zato je i potrebna federalizacija jer bi tako te zemlje dobijale pare od evropskih poreza ali bi morale da se odreknu spoljnopolitickih prerogativa. Zato kazem da ce dugorocni sukob sa Rusijom da vodi ili federalizaciji EU ili njenom raspadu sa povratkom nacionalizama. Link to comment
hazard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Pa sad, ne znam da li se penzije racunaju u "primarni budzet" ili ne. Ali Grcka svakako nije u situaciju kao na pocetku krize, kada je morala da pozajmljuje pare da bi uopste mogla da funkcionise. http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2015/02/02/will-greece-default-on-its-debt/ Greece’s “primary budget,” which is calculated before interest, is in surplus. Total debt declined slightly, thanks to asset sales. (In the accompanying chart, positive numbers show a reduction in debt, negative numbers an increase in debt.) Now suppose that Greece just repudiated its debt, saying “We won’t pay. Don’t ask us.” They save all of the interest expense, they stop worrying about repaying bonds as they mature, and they increase government spending. What’s not to like about that? The more far-sighted debtor would wonder if additional loans might be needed in the future. Perhaps Greece’s budget is in surplus (excluding interest) now, but what if something happens? Suppose expenditures are increased but tax revenues don’t rise as much as expected. With no other organization on the planet willing to lend money to them, the Greeks could be in trouble. The defaulter’s response might be, “We’ll be careful.” I don’t believe it, but I can believe that the debt defaulter might believe it. Or a politician might say the words with as much truth as any politician normally uses. In this position, the Greeks are holding the strong hand in negotiations with the rest of Europe. If economic restructuring requirements are not eased, the Greeks can walk away from the bargaining table. Not only would European governments end up holding worthless debt, but European politicians would be highly embarrassed. To a politician, of course, losing the next election is a far greater threat than the loss of billions of Euros. Link to comment
Anduril Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 (edited) Ovaj, sve je to lepo nego zaboravise ovde da spomenu da bi izlaskom iz evra drahma devalvirala. To znaci da bi sve sto se uvozi preko noci poskupelo realno za recimo 50% ili vise. Mogli bi da otplacuju plate i penzije, no problem - ali standard bi pao otprilike na nivo Madjarske gde i pripada po produktivnosti. Dodatna zackoljica je sto bi sa bankrotom i bez daljih reformi cela zemlja (ne samo drzava nego i kompanije ili pojedinci) bili prakticno odseceni od pozajmica spolja. Nije to sve tako super. Edited February 19, 2015 by Anduril Link to comment
MancMellow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Pa zato je i potrebna federalizacija jer bi tako te zemlje dobijale pare od evropskih poreza ali bi morale da se odreknu spoljnopolitickih prerogativa. Zato kazem da ce dugorocni sukob sa Rusijom da vodi ili federalizaciji EU ili njenom raspadu sa povratkom nacionalizama. Pa da, a to nije mnogo različito od ovoga što, na primer, Varufakis priča, samo je sad pitanje da li deliti potencijalne bumerang zauške ili priznati da nešto mora da se menja. Ti neki koraci ka federalizaciji Evrozone - za njih je trenutak - sada. Tj kupiti malo vremena nekim kompromisom sa Grčkom i onda narednih 6-12 meseci smišljati kako dalje u tom pravcu. Link to comment
Аврам Гојић Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Feb 19 (Reuters) - Greece's government said it was up to euro zone finance ministers to decide whether to accept or reject its proposal to extend a loan agreement, in a bid to play down German comments rejecting the proposal as insufficient. "The Greek government submitted a letter to the Eurogroup asking for a six-month extension of the loan agreement. Tomorrow's Eurogroup has only two options: either to accept or reject the Greek request," a government official said. "It will then be clear who wants to find a solution and who doesn't." Earlier on Thursday, the German finance ministry rejected Athens' request for an extension by saying it fell short of the conditions set out earlier this week by the euro zone. Čini mi se da od ove taktike nema ništa, litvanski min. fin. je rekao da su ministri zemalja evrozone odlučni da se bailout mora nastaviti pod sadašnjim uslovima. Ovo je kao kad čitaš sled diplomatskih igara koji je doveo do Prvog svetskog rata. Serija poteza koji deluju potpuno iracionalno svakom sa tri grama mozga, ali su iznuđeni političkom realnošću pojedinih zemalja i paktova. Link to comment
Budja Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 kasnim, ali da odgovorim. ne bih rekao da su u pitanju besmislice, vec (mozda neuspeo) pokusaj da se ucini nesto sto bi predstavljalo pomak u odnosu na postojece prilicno falicne modele. meni je interesantna sama ideja. poenta je da su postojeci modeli prilicno problematicni. pri tome, cinjenica da vrhunski ekonomisti znaju sta rade, i da je Ester Duflo prvakinja u skoku u dalj, ne menja na stvari. Poenta je da budemo malcice precizniji. Koji modeli? Poenta je da kriticari sve modele stavljaju u isti kos "jer nisu predvideli finansijsku krizu". To je bullshit. Link to comment
MancMellow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Čini mi se da od ove taktike nema ništa, litvanski min. fin. je rekao da su ministri zemalja evrozone odlučni da se bailout mora nastaviti pod sadašnjim uslovima. Ovo je kao kad čitaš sled diplomatskih igara koji je doveo do Prvog svetskog rata. Serija poteza koji deluju potpuno iracionalno svakom sa tri grama mozga, ali su iznuđeni političkom realnošću pojedinih zemalja i paktova. sorry ali Link to comment
frn1782 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 gresni vasilije melodramatic Link to comment
MancMellow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Dok Juncker čita forum ^_^ In contrast to Berlin, the EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker welcomed the Greek application, saying in his opinion it could pave the way for a “sensible compromise in the interest of financial stability in the Eurozone as a whole”. Link to comment
Аврам Гојић Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 sorry ali šta? pa naravno da ne odlučuje on. kontam da je izneo neki zajednički stav. Link to comment
MancMellow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 ama, nikad ne treba propustiti priliku da ne kažeš ništa (mislim na lit min fin-a) Link to comment
Аврам Гојић Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Francuski premijer izraziti glas razuma. Treba razgovarati i doći do novog sporazuma, grexit ne dolazi u obzir, ponuda Atine ohrabrujuća. Link to comment
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