Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[Аврам Гојић]

Kakvi papani, ili cvile u Vašingtonu i Moskvi ili šutiraju daleko slabije od sebe. 

 

E bas to.

[Аврам Гојић]

Pojavile su se teorije da je predlog bio sastavljen sa ciljem da politicki izoluje Nemacku. Sta znam, moguce je i to. 

[Prospero]

jea rajt, dok "izoluju nemačku" franfurt se sprema da zakuje podizanje novca iz grčkih banaka i pošalje jasnu poruku ciprasu ko kome diktira uslove:

 

In political terms, the imposition of capital control would be a political disaster for the new government of Alexis Tsipras.

Colonial status: ECB suggests putting Greek capital under control
by 
Dan Alexe


19.02.2015 - 10:29

According to the German conservative newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), the European Central Bank (ECB) is suggesting that capital in Greece be put under control. 
This happened already with Cyprus three years ago, in order to avoid flight of capital. In practice, it would mean that investors and ordinary Greek citizens would be stopped from removing from their deposits more than a specified amount. 

Cyprus imposed restrictions on bank withdrawals, and taking money out of the country, in 2013. Individuals could not withdraw more than 300 euros per day from any one bank, unless they had withdrawn less than 300 euros the previous day. Payments of more than 5,000 euros had to be approved by the central bank.

The Frankfurt paper, usually well informed about the inside workings of the ECB, writes today:

"Greek banks are weakened by large outflows of money. Since December, Greeks took out more than 20 billion from their accounts. In central bank circles it was asked why the Greek government has not yet introduced capital controls. “The Governing Council and the banking supervisors of the ECB agreed that capital controls would prevent a bleeding of the banks”, says an internal source of the bank. The Council of the Central Bank also discussed the question of whether and how long the Greek banks in general are still solvent. ELA-emergency loans may only be granted to temporarily illiquid but solvent banks in principle."

The ELA-emergency loans (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) are the only lifeline of Greece today, these are emergency funds  extended by the Bank of Greece, which can be vetoed by the ECB. Greece’s central bank Governor Yannis Stournaras was seeking yesterday in Frankfurt an increase ELA allowance for his country’s banks above the current 65 billion euros ceiling.

The ECB agreed on Wednesday to raise a cap on funding available under the Emergency Liquidity Assistance scheme to 68.3 billion euros, a rise of just 3.3 billion euros, below what Greece had requested, but, as it seems, with a proviso that capital control be imposed.

The leaking out of the information, already in the media, could trigger panic among investors and ordinary citizens in Greece, as it happened in Cyprus in 2012. Greece's banking system is already archaic and dysfunctional. A rush on deposits risks blocking it, while causing capital flight.

Credit ratings agency Fitch had this to say on the subject of capital controls yesterday: "Rising funding and liquidity risks led us to put four Greek banks on Rating Watch Negative on 10 February. This reflected our view that difficult negotiations would prompt further deposit outflows that could trigger capital controls, particularly if access to emergency funding were restricted by the European Central Bank."

Greek banks have already been hurt by an outflow of deposits due to the country’s political and financial uncertainty over the last two months, and banks can no longer use their government’s bonds to get liquidity from the ECB, depending instead on more expensive emergency funding from their own central bank. The ECB earlier this month said Greek banks could no longer use junk-rated Greek government debt for collateral in return for cheap funding from the central bank.

Talks on Monday between eurozone finance ministers collapsed as Greece refused to request an extension of its bailout program. However, Greece will ask today for a six-month extension of its loan agreement, while making a distinction between the loan program and the bailout program.

In political terms, the imposition of capital control would be a political disaster for the new government of Alexis Tsipras, who would have to justify in front of his radical allies what amounts to an almost colonial status and a placement under even closer supervision.

Edited February 19, 2015 by Prospero

[Аврам Гојић]

Nemacka izgleda stvarno jako zeli Hrisi Avgi na vlasti.

[MancMellow]

Vreme je za Ciprasa da kaže da će se u slučaju nepostizanja kompromisa povući iz Eurozone. Ovo je endgame. 

[Аврам Гојић]

Da. Ne znam kako se ovo moze premostiti, ovo vise nije politika.

 

 

 

13.12 There's been radio silence from the rest of the eurozone or the European institutions after Germany's torpedo

Edited February 19, 2015 by Грешни Василије

[Anduril]

Vreme je za Ciprasa da kaže da će se u slučaju nepostizanja kompromisa povući iz Eurozone. Ovo je endgame. 

 

Upravo. Ocigledno je da nikada nisu ni smeli biti pusteni u Evrozonu a sada je ocigledno da im tu nije ni mesto.

Grcka bi trebalo da izadje a EU/IMF da zatim naprave novi aranzman kao i za svaku drugu zemlju.

Nema smisla da relativno mala drzava drzi celu zonu kao taoca nestabilnosti.

Dok god nema zajednicke fiskalne kontrole, izlazak iz zone mora biti moguc.

[hazard]

Vreme je za nuclear option. Grcka treba da kaze

 

1) Sami uvodimo kontrolu kapitala u nasim bankama zbog moguceg bankrota, i to radimo bez supervizije ECB

 

2) Bankrot je izvestan

 

3) Ne izlazimo iz evrozone jer bi to za nas bilo previse stresno, a vi nemate mehanizam da nas izbacite, a ako pokusate tuzicemo vas evropskom sudu

 

4) Ne brinemo za ostale problematicne drzave u evrozoni - Italiju, Spaniju, Portugaliju i Irsku - i smatramo da one treba da urade isto sto i mi, tj. pokazacemo da je to i za njih bolja opcija od trenutnog stanja

 

Hvala dovidjenja

[Аврам Гојић]

Korekcija vesti. "Najn" nije došlo od Šojblea već od portparola min. fin. Jegera. To ostavlja tračak nade.

[MancMellow]

Vreme je za nuclear option. Grcka treba da kaze

 

1) Sami uvodimo kontrolu kapitala u nasim bankama zbog moguceg bankrota, i to radimo bez supervizije ECB

 

2) Bankrot je izvestan

 

3) Ne izlazimo iz evrozone jer bi to za nas bilo previse stresno, a vi nemate mehanizam da nas izbacite, a ako pokusate tuzicemo vas evropskom sudu

 

4) Ne brinemo za ostale problematicne drzave u evrozoni - Italiju, Spaniju, Portugaliju i Irsku - i smatramo da one treba da urade isto sto i mi, tj. pokazacemo da je to i za njih bolja opcija od trenutnog stanja

 

Hvala dovidjenja

 

Nece imati para ni za sta od iduceg meseca ako ne mogu da ih stampaju, to je problem.

[MancMellow]

Upravo. Ocigledno je da nikada nisu ni smeli biti pusteni u Evrozonu a sada je ocigledno da im tu nije ni mesto.

Grcka bi trebalo da izadje a EU/IMF da zatim naprave novi aranzman kao i za svaku drugu zemlju.

Nema smisla da relativno mala drzava drzi celu zonu kao taoca nestabilnosti.

Dok god nema zajednicke fiskalne kontrole, izlazak iz zone mora biti moguc.

 

E, hvala. Složio se ili ne oko ovoga, kako se to slaže sa onom tvojom idejom sa ukr topika o "jasnim granicama" EU? Grci će nadrljati, no problem, ali to će pokazati i mnogim drugima u EU (a i samim Grcima, koji će još uvek biti u EU) da moraju da imaju i neke rezervne opcije. 

Edited February 19, 2015 by MancMellow

[hazard]

Nece imati para ni za sta od iduceg meseca ako ne mogu da ih stampaju, to je problem.

 

To nije problem. Ako prestanu da placaju dugove, imaju sasvim dovoljno para za sve sto treba. Imaju primarni suficit.

[MancMellow]

To nije problem. Ako prestanu da placaju dugove, imaju sasvim dovoljno para za sve sto treba. Imaju primarni suficit.

 

Erm, ono što se pisalo (svuda) je da nemaju para za plate i penzije za par meseci, zato i cela ova frka. 

[Anduril]

E, hvala. Složio se ili ne oko ovoga, kako se to slaže sa onom tvojom idejom sa ukr topika o "jasnim granicama" EU? Grci će nadrljati, no problem, ali to će pokazati i mnogim drugima u EU (a i samim Grcima, koji će još uvek biti u EU) da moraju da imaju i neke rezervne opcije. 

 

Evrozona nije EU.

[MancMellow]

Evrozona nije EU.

 

Ama naravno, al to i dalje ne odgovara na ono moje pitanje. Zemlje kad su u očaju, makar bile i članice EU grebu gde god mogu i to je normalno.