Budja Posted May 3, 2019 Posted May 3, 2019 3 hours ago, jms_uk said: Lokalni izbori preslikani na generalne. Sent from my iTelephone using Tapatalk S tim sto se ne moze preslikavati. Na lokalnim izborima pre 2010, LiDems su imali 24-25% glasova. Na poslednjim izborima su imali 16%. Tako da, kaze znalac Curtis, LibDems su porasli za nepuna 3%. Nista spektakularno. Oni koji su porasli znacjano su Independents. Ovi lokalni izbori jesu neki test, ali znacajniji "referendum" test su evropski izbori.
hazard Posted May 3, 2019 Posted May 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Budja said: Na lokalnim izborima pre 2010, LiDems su imali 24-25% glasova. Na poslednjim izborima su imali 16%. Tako da, kaze znalac Curtis, LibDems su porasli za nepuna 3%. Nista spektakularno. Ali LibDemsi kažu da su im ovo najbolji lokalni izbori ikad. Možda u smislu broja osvojenih odbornika?
hazard Posted May 3, 2019 Posted May 3, 2019 42 minutes ago, Gandalf said: kakva je struktura ovih "ostalih", zna li neko? Nezavisni kandidati za odbornike + mnoštvo lokalnih partija i pokreta tipa Best for Middlesbrough i sl.
Budja Posted May 3, 2019 Posted May 3, 2019 Just now, hazard said: Ali LibDemsi kažu da su im ovo najbolji lokalni izbori ikad. Možda u smislu broja osvojenih odbornika? Nisam to procitao. Moze citat? Quote 4 things we've learnt from the projected national share figures Here is some analysis that puts the projected national share (PNS) numbers in context. (See 2.53pm.) 1) Both main parties have gone backwards considerably over the last 12 months. In the 2018 local elections the Conservatives were also tied, but they were both on 35% instead of 28%, which is what they are on now. That does not necessarily mean that Brexit is hurting them both equally - there could other factors at play - but it does show that Labour has failed to benefit from the Brexit deadlock for which the government is primarily responsible. 2) The results confirm the impression that two-party politics is on the decline. As Prof John Curtice explained on the BBC, this is only the second time since these results were first compiled, in 1982, that both main parties have been below 30%. The other time was in 2013, when Labour were on 29% and the Tories 25%. 3) Although the Lib Dems have done well, they are a long way behind their pre-2011 performance. From 1993, when they were on 25%, until 2010, when they were on 26%, they never fell below 20%. In 2011 they went down to 16%. Now they are up to 19%, which is an improvement, but a long way short of making this a historic success - at least, on this measure. 4) Even though “others” are on 25%, the real non-Tory/Labour/LibDem vote is probably even higher. This category includes Ukip and the Greens. But it does not include the Brexit party and Change UK, because they were not standing in these elections.
hazard Posted May 3, 2019 Posted May 3, 2019 57 minutes ago, Budja said: Nisam to procitao. Moze citat? Ona je zamenik lidera LibDemsa, pretpostavljam da zna o čemu priča naravno pitanje je kako definiše "best ever", da li u apsolutnom broju odbornika ili u promeni broja odbornika u odnosu na predizborno stanje, ili šta već
hazard Posted May 3, 2019 Posted May 3, 2019 @Budja Btw, lokalni izbori u Engleskoj su malo konfuzni, ispada da ima nešto po malo skoro svake godine...valjda su inače redovni izbori na 4 godine (ali nisu u svakoj jedinici lok. samouprave u isto vreme, npr. juče se nije glasalo u Londonu i još nekim gradovima). Tako da ne znam otkud to poređenje sa 16%? Juče se glasalo u 248 lokalnih veća u Engleskoj (i 11 u Sev. Irskoj), plus se biralo 6 gradonačelnika u Engleskoj. Poslednji put je bilo nešto slično 2015.: 6 gradonačelnika (valjda tih istih) i 279 lokalnih veća u Engleskoj. Tada su LibDemsi imali samo 11%, i osvojili su samo 658 odbornika (pad od 411). Tako da je skok realno 8%, ne 3%, što je dosta značajnije i bolje se poklapa sa brojem novodobijenih odbornika (630+), teško da toliki broj može da bude proizvod samo swinga od 3%
Budja Posted May 3, 2019 Posted May 3, 2019 36 minutes ago, hazard said: @Budja Btw, lokalni izbori u Engleskoj su malo konfuzni, ispada da ima nešto po malo skoro svake godine...valjda su inače redovni izbori na 4 godine (ali nisu u svakoj jedinici lok. samouprave u isto vreme, npr. juče se nije glasalo u Londonu i još nekim gradovima). Tako da ne znam otkud to poređenje sa 16%? Juče se glasalo u 248 lokalnih veća u Engleskoj (i 11 u Sev. Irskoj), plus se biralo 6 gradonačelnika u Engleskoj. Poslednji put je bilo nešto slično 2015.: 6 gradonačelnika (valjda tih istih) i 279 lokalnih veća u Engleskoj. Tada su LibDemsi imali samo 11%, i osvojili su samo 658 odbornika (pad od 411). Tako da je skok realno 8%, ne 3%, što je dosta značajnije i bolje se poklapa sa brojem novodobijenih odbornika (630+), teško da toliki broj može da bude proizvod samo swinga od 3% Like-for-like poredjenje, pretpostavljam. Curtis je glavna faca za izbore, ne bi se frljao. Pretpostavljam da se 2015. ne uzima u obzir jer su tada istovremeno odrzani i paralmentarni izbori. Takodje, moje wikipedia istrazivanje pokazuje da je godina za poredjenje 2016, a ne 2015, ako je rec o Colchesteru na primer a tada su LibDems bili jos gori - 9%. Pretpostavljam da treba pronaci Curtisov blog da bi se razumelo sta se desava.
Budja Posted May 3, 2019 Posted May 3, 2019 JOhn Curtis here https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/local-elections-2019-sir-john-curtices-party/ Quote Liberal Democrats "For the Liberal Democrats, it's not dramatic - they're still not as high as they were before they entered the coalition in 2010, but certainly even better than last year. "And crucially showing signs of advancing in the places where they're actually able to convert votes into seats, places where they already had some strength, where they were starting up in second place." Quote Change UK "It will be interesting to see whether or not Change UK can pose a challenge in the European elections. It's not obvious that the Liberal Democrat success was particularly based on the support of Remain voters, they were frankly succeeding across the piece and probably was as much a protest vote as a pro-EU referendum vote.
vememah Posted May 12, 2019 Posted May 12, 2019 (edited) Konzervama se izgleda smeši 4. mesto na izborima za EP, koji se održavaju za manje od dve nedelje. Edited May 12, 2019 by vememah
Marvin (Paranoid Android) Posted May 13, 2019 Posted May 13, 2019 Evo i od YouGova za evropske izbore: Bilo bi predobro kad bi i Lib Demovi prešišali Laburiste.
Budja Posted May 13, 2019 Posted May 13, 2019 Cini se da se ti izbori pretvaraju u svojevrsni referendum o EU. Kako stoje stvari, pata karte. Po YouGov 47:47 (fali UKIP koji je na 3%, ali fali i SNP). Moje citanje je da to nije dobra vest za pristalice drugog referenduma. Ono sto je dobro sto rem glasovi odlaze LD i Zelenima, a ne ChangeUK folirantima.
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