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Avganistan


Bojan

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9 hours ago, radisa said:

 nikog nije briga da to proba da reši?

Ako pod rešavanje ne podrazumevaš prodaju nafte i oružija onda ne, nikog nije briga.

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9 hours ago, radisa said:

I cekaj, sad ce ceo svet da gleda stvaranje talibanske države i nikog nije briga da to proba da reši?

Mogli bi npr. Amerikanci i saveznici da vojno intervenisu da pohapse talibane i posalju u Guantanamo... ups, cekaj.:unsure:

 

Druga muka je sto ce ovo ozbiljno podici cenu heroina na zapadu... (tako kazu, ne da bih ja znao nesto o tome.)

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Heroin bio skup pod Talibanima, pa naglo pojeftinio godinu dana pred rat. Svet im je davao pare da uništavaju polja zasadjena makom i oni su to radili, a novac su malo uzimali za sebe a malo davali seljacima. Kad je zavrnuta slavina, rekli su lokalnom Miletu™ da se situacija promenila i da je slobodan da se bavi poljoprivredom kao i ranije, a oni će da uzimaju % od prodaje, da nadoknade gubitke nastale zavrtanjem slavine.

Edited by ObiW
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U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul

 

American negotiators are trying to extract assurances from the Taliban that they will not attack the U.S. Embassy in Kabul if the extremist group overruns the capital in a direct challenge to the country's government, two American officials said.
The effort, led by Zalmay Khalilzad, the chief American envoy in talks with the Taliban, seeks to stave off an evacuation of the embassy as the fighters rapidly seize cities across Afghanistan. The Taliban's advance has put embassies in Kabul on high alert for a surge of violence in coming months, or even weeks, and forced consulates and other diplomatic missions elsewhere in the country to shut down.

American diplomats now are trying to determine how soon they may need to evacuate the U.S. Embassy should the Taliban prove to be more bent on destruction than a détente. On Thursday, the embassy urged Americans who were not working for the U.S. government to leave Afghanistan immediately on commercial flights.

Biden administration officials insist that there are no immediate plans to significantly draw down the embassy's staff of 4,000 employees, including about 1,400 Americans, as U.S. troops formally complete their withdrawal from the country.
"We are withdrawing our forces from Afghanistan, but we are not withdrawing from Afghanistan," the State Department said in a statement. "Although U.S. troops will depart, the United States will maintain our robust diplomatic engagement with Afghanistan."
Five current and former officials described the mood inside the embassy as increasingly tense and worried, and diplomats at the State Department's headquarters in Washington noted a sense of tangible depression at the specter of closing it, nearly 20 years after U.S. Marines reclaimed the burned-out building in December 2001.

Several people gloomily revived a comparison that all wanted to avoid: the fall of Saigon in 1975, when Americans were evacuated from the embassy from a rooftop by helicopter."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/us/politics/taliban-afghanistan-us-embassy.html

 

 

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Posle pada Herata izgleda da je i stari Ismail Khan uhvaćen. U jednoj od poslednjih poruka je poručio da će se sa svojim ljudima boriti dok bude mogao, a posle je sve u božijim rukama.

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3 hours ago, ObiW said:

Heroin bio skup pod Talibanima, pa naglo pojeftinio godinu dana pred rat. Svet im je davao pare da uništavaju polja zasadjena makom i oni su to radili, a novac su malo uzimali za sebe a malo davali seljacima. Kad je zavrnuta slavina, rekli su lokalnom Miletu™ da se situacija promenila i da je slobodan da se bavi poljoprivredom kao i ranije, a oni će da uzimaju % od prodaje, da nadoknade gubitke nastale zavrtanjem slavine.

 

 

_106598597_afghan_opium_chart-nc.png

 

 

Biće da je bilo malo drugačije.

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Inače, što se tiče finansiranja Talibana opijum im je jedan od izvora prihoda. Procenjuje se da su prošle godine inkasirali oko 1,5 milijardi dolara (ukupno - ne samo od opijuma). Genralno, stvar funkcioniše tako što Talibani uzimaju procenat od svih aktivnosti na područjima koja su pod njihovom kontrolom. Veoma važna stavka u prihodima Talibana su i donacije stranih donatora. Imaju i svoje ogranke pa čak i legalne biznise u inostranstvu od kojih finansiraju svoje aktivnosti. Drže pod kontrolom i neke rudnike u Avganistanu od kojih prihoduju.

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8 minutes ago, Bojan said:

Drže pod kontrolom i neke rudnike u Avganistanu od kojih prihoduju.

Naravno. 

To prakticno znaci da neko to najurednije na nekom 'trzistu' od njih kupuje - kao sto je kupovao (i/ili jos uvek kupuje) naftu od ISISa.

Bizmis™ je jaci od svake ideologije a niko nije gadljiv da (zarad 'vishih' ciljeva) malo prihoduje... 

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9 hours ago, cedo said:

 

cim sve pada kao kula od karata ... ili su drzavne snage lose obucene, ili nije bas 85% stanovnika protiv talibanstine

 

 

Ne mora da znači. Pre svega kod gerilskih pokreta veliku ulogu igra uterivanje straha. Prisustvo na terenu i stalno plasiranje teze ljudima da neće biti bezbedni dok "mi ne dođemo na vlast". Tako i Talibani stalno govore kako oni donose mir i pravdu narodu. U nekom uvrnutom smislu to na kraju ispadne i tačno.

 

Radi se i o tome da su u pitanju prekaljeni borci koji već desetinama godina žive pod pritiskom. Tu je i momentum koji kada iskoristiš stvar počinje da se odvija kao lavina. Odlaskom Amerikanaca dobili su malo prostora, došli do oružja. Krenuli u kampanju, iskoristili nemotivisanost i statičnost regularne armije, pravili dogovore sa guvernerima provincija i plemenskim vođama, opet dolazili do nove količine oružja, plasirali poruke da pobeđuju, širili paniku itd.

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16 minutes ago, Bojan said:

 

Ne mora da znači. Pre svega kod gerilskih pokreta veliku ulogu igra uterivanje straha. Prisustvo na terenu i stalno plasiranje teze ljudima da neće biti bezbedni dok "mi ne dođemo na vlast". Tako i Talibani stalno govore kako oni donose mir i pravdu narodu. U nekom uvrnutom smislu to na kraju ispadne i tačno.

 

Radi se i o tome da su u pitanju prekaljeni borci koji već desetinama godina žive pod pritiskom. Tu je i momentum koji kada iskoristiš stvar počinje da se odvija kao lavina. Odlaskom Amerikanaca dobili su malo prostora, došli do oružja. Krenuli u kampanju, iskoristili nemotivisanost i statičnost regularne armije, pravili dogovore sa guvernerima provincija i plemenskim vođama, opet dolazili do nove količine oružja, plasirali poruke da pobeđuju, širili paniku itd.

 

sve ok, sirenje straha posebno ...

nije da nesto posebno pratim desavanja u afganistanu, zato i hvala na opsirnom uvodu

vise mi je palo u oko to istrazivanje od 85% i pomenuta brojna nadmoc obucene regularne vojske pa opet za vrlo kratko vreme talibani uzimaju sve

nesto tu ne stima

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4 hours ago, Indy said:

Mogli bi npr. Amerikanci i saveznici da vojno intervenisu da pohapse talibane i posalju u Guantanamo... ups, cekaj.:unsure:

 

Druga muka je sto ce ovo ozbiljno podici cenu heroina na zapadu... (tako kazu, ne da bih ja znao nesto o tome.)

 

Ovo je zapravo odgovor koji objašnjava dosta toga. Obama je Belu kuću napustio kao zlikovac koji je dronovima ubijao civile. Opsežna kampanja je sprovođena kako na terenu (sa avganistanskom vojskom), tako i na diplomatskom planu, kako bi se odsekli saveznici Talibana. U napadu dronom je 2016. ubijen i tadašnji lider Talibana Akhtar Mansour. Izvršen je veliki pritisak na Pakistan za koji se smatralo da pomaže Talibanima. Tamo Talibani uživaju veliku popularnost i postojalo je dosta kampova za obuku. Mansour je ubijen pri prelasku iz Irana u Pakistan. Na kraju su Amerikanci insistirali da Pakistanci angažuju vojsku kako bi eliminisali Talibane sa svoje teritorije. Inače, velika većina Avganistanaca smatra da je napad Talibana neka vrsta Pakisanske agresije, iako Pakistan već godinama negira vezu sa Talibanima. Rezultata je bilo i Talibani su bili definitivno u defanzivi. Naročito je pod udarom bilo jedno od njihovih najorganizovanijih krila Haqqani network.

 

Preuzimanje Avganistana od strane Talibana će imati veliki odjek ne samo u Avganistanu već i u svetu. Paradoksalno je što je Bajden najavio povlačenje do dvadesetogodišnjice napada na kule. A zapravo stvar po svoj prilici stoji tako da će ekstremisti proslaviti dvadesetogodišnjicu tog napada u Kabulu kao glavnom gradu Islamskog Emirata, što će imati veliki psihološki efekat.

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Evo i jednog od poslednjih saopštenja Talibana

 

Quote

The Mujahideen of Islamic Emirate recently began operations against provincial capitals in response to the war-mongering stance of the Kabul administration.

Even as nine provinces have been completely cleared of enemy presence, comprehensive caution was taken with regards to protecting the life and property of civilians, and no losses or casualties were inflicted upon them during our assaults and operations.

Additionally, the Islamic Emirate repeatedly assured town citizens that none will face any threats even if they were high-ranking officials of the Kabul administration, and all should remain in their homes and not feel a need to leave.

However, we are still witnessing some people from a number of provinces have left their homes due to propaganda and irrational fears, and have moved to Kabul and other areas seeking refuge. Moreover, ICRC, UNICEF and other organizations are also announcing large casualty figures from the war which is also contributing to the anxiety of citizens.

The Islamic Emirate once again announces in clear terms that no home or family shall face any threat from our side. No one including military and civilian workers of the Kabul regime and their families should leave their homes. Our Mujahidin will protect and safeguard their homes, lives, wealth and honor.

Similarly, we want to clarify regarding reports by ICRC and other organizations that the Islamic Emirate has not targeted any civilians or their homes in any locality, rather the operations have been undertaken will great precision and caution. On the contrary, the Kabul administration and their foreign backers have carried out blind airstrikes on some cities and have bombed mosques, hospitals, schools, markets and civilian homes which has caused wanton suffering and destruction.

In order to prevent these losses and mass murder, the officials of the Kabul administration and their foreign backers should be urged to bring an end to the airstrikes because bombings are not effective in tactical urban warfare and only cause losses to the general public.

In order that cause of recent casualties and displacement can be established, we propose that a team by the United Nations, international humanitarian organizations, ICRC and other impartial parties be composed and be accompanied by representatives of the Islamic Emirate to conduct an impartial and independent investigation into the latest events so that we may determine whether the people have been harmed by the Mujahideen or have been martyred, injured and displaced from their homes by the bombings of the Kabul administration and their foreign backers.

The Islamic Emirate takes protection of civilian populace, infrastructure and public places during fighting very seriously and has used all tools at its disposal in this regard, hence the people should not feel any sense of danger from the Mujahideen.

U fazonu - sve OK - mi smo za mir i prosperitet.

Edited by Bojan
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