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Jedna mapa govori vise od rijeci


borris_

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Iz članka, dve od četiri krive na gornjem grafikonu su kineske procene, doduše jedna u saradnji s Australijancima.
 

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“When economic pressure is huge and many people feel their livelihood is insecure, it’s definitely going to affect people’s decisions on births,” said Xiujian Peng, a senior research fellow at Victoria University in Australia. According to joint research by her team at the university’s Centre of Policy Studies and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, an official think tank, China’s population will start dropping this year. The decline is expected to accelerate in the years ahead, with the country’s population falling to 587 million by 2100, less than half of the about 1.4 billion today.

The team’s projections were based on data including on fertility, mortality and population distribution by age and gender.
(...)
Yuwa Population Research, a group of half a dozen Chinese demographers and economists, earlier this year also forecast a population decline starting in 2022. The group projected the Chinese population will shrink to 685 million by 2100. He Yafu, a demographer affiliated with the think tank, cited the economic slowdown and Covid controls as factors speeding up the drop.

 

Edited by vememah
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Posto si ti strucnjak za gugl ti ces meni reci da li sam nesto pogresio.

UN daje procenu stanovnistva Rusije tamo negde 2003 ili 2004 da ce do 2050 pasti na oko 100 miliona.

 

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Finally, the UN expects Russia's population, which was 146 million in 2000, to shrink to 101 million in 2050. If these projections prove accurate, Germany's population will shrink by 4%, Japan's by 13% — and Russia's by 31%. ...

https://www.theglobalist.com/u-s-power-in-the-21st-century/

 

Ovih godina donja granica ruske populacije po UN predvidjanju je 125 miliona.

 

Takodje od 2010 do 2020 Rusija je zabelezila rast populacije a ja se secam predvidjanja iz prve dekade 2000ih koja su govorila da je to nemoguce...

 

russia-population.png?s=rus%2Bsp.pop.tot

O cemu se radi?

 

 

Edited by pasha
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10 hours ago, pasha said:

Predvidjanja na tako dugackom vremeskom okviru su problematicna. Primer je Kina koja je usla u politiku vise do jednog deteta, sto ce se sigurno odraziti na predvidjanja.

 

Gledala sam jedan TV prilog o ovome. Mladi u Kini, koji sada treba da prave porodice, su svi jedinci i ne vide neku potrebu da se ima više dece. Za razliku od njihovih roditelja, koji su možda patili za drugim detetom, jer su iz velikih porodica, ovima je to najnormalnija stvar na svetu.

 

Druga stvar je da je Kina koliko je ulagala u tehnološki razvoj u poslednjih 20 godina, toliko nije ulagala u socijalnu politiku. Gradili su brze pruge, ali vrtiće slabo ili nikako -jer im nisu trebali. Na jedno dete je dolazilo 2 babe i 2 dede koji su ih čuvali.

Plus što se u Kini zapatio "996" radni model. Od 9 do 9 uveče, 6 dana u nedelji, pa aj ti napravi dete posle takve radne nedelje.

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Sigurno postojei dosta problema ali mora se razumeti da Kina ima neka drugojacija pravila i njeno funcionisanje je drugacije. Tako da mislim da ce uspeti da unaprede svoju demografsku buducnost.

Ono sto je bila moja penta jeste da stavljanje tako dugackih predvidjanja nema nekakvog smila jer se to stalno koriguje u zavisnosti od promena u svetu. Zato sam dao primer Rusije i kako se u 15 godina znacajno promenila predvidjanja.

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