On 19. 11. 2015. at 18:41, slow said:

Pa ništa, izumrće, potkačiće ih evolucioni garbage collector, ostaće samo programeri.   :D

Koliko vidim do sada, vise se islo na izmisljanje bulsit zanimanja (sad bih krenuo u nabrajanje, al da ne otvaram flejm :D ).

A postoje i opcije minimalnog dohotka i tako tih resenja ili drasticno menjanje ekonomskih odnosa, mozda najdrasticnije u poslednjih nekoliko vekova.

  On 19. 11. 2015. at 18:35, Prokleto Djubre said:

Tu ja vidim samo jedan problem i to socioloski - sta sa svim tim ljudima koji postaju visak?

 

Nemam sad vremena, vraticu se na ovu temu, no mislim da ti ,,previse" (nije najadekvatnija rec) kreativno gledas na to sta ce moci masine da rade a ne gledas nedovoljno kreativno na to sta ce ekonomija uraditi u takvom novom okruzenju.

 

Istorija nam govori da koliko god automatizacija uklanja neka radna mesta toliko (ako ne i vise) omogucava otvaranje nekih drugih.

  On 19. 11. 2015. at 19:17, hazard said:

Nemam sad vremena, vraticu se na ovu temu, no mislim da ti ,,previse" (nije najadekvatnija rec) kreativno gledas na to sta ce moci masine da rade a ne gledas nedovoljno kreativno na to sta ce ekonomija uraditi u takvom novom okruzenju.

 

Istorija nam govori da koliko god automatizacija uklanja neka radna mesta toliko (ako ne i vise) omogucava otvaranje nekih drugih.

 

Ma OK, ja ne znam dovoljno o ekonomiji da bih mogao pretpostaviti sta ce biti odgovor. Zato i kazem - napravice se nova radna mesta valjda. Sto se tice precenjivanja masina, mislim da sam tu cak i konzervativan i o tome mogu raspravljati nasiroko :)

Hazarde, skoro je dirljivo da se jos uvek neko drzi tog historia magistra vitae est, ali zivimo u vremenu globalne promene i disrupcije.

  On 19. 11. 2015. at 19:57, Indy said:

Hazarde, skoro je dirljivo da se jos uvek neko drzi tog historia magistra vitae est, ali zivimo u vremenu globalne promene i disrupcije.

 

...i onda ekstrapoliramo proslost kompjuterske industrije i automatizacije na buducnost.

 

Kada kazem nece biti kao u proslosti, ne valja, kada kazem bice kao u proslosti, opet ne valja. Odlucite se :(

Roboti sigurno nece pobediti isil; ovo ostalo je ionako jedenje govana

  On 19. 11. 2015. at 19:28, Prokleto Djubre said:

 Zato i kazem - napravice se nova radna mesta valjda. 

 

Ne vidim apsolutno nijedan razlog zašto bi se napravila, što reče jedan moj poznanik - ljudi su skupi i nepouzdani, sve što sam mogao - automatizovao sam.

Nije da ni da su mašine/softver besplatni ni da ne zahtevaju održavanje. Automatizacija ogoljuje jednu od glavnih kontradikcija kapitalizma: povećanje produktivnosti dovodi do opadanja profitabilnosti.

Milanović

 

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It is always instructive to speak to Joe Stiglitz. In a conversation in Paris which we had after his talk at the INET conference, he pointed out that the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor greater than 1 (which is often assumed by Piketty in his “Capital in the 21st century”), combined with technological progress which does not fall like manna from heaven but develops in response to the existing factor prices, would lead to an explosive process that would end only with capital owning the entire net income of a country. How?

 

Suppose that we have a given r (you can imagine that it is 5% as is often  mentioned by Piketty) and a given wage (w). Suppose also that at this ratio of factor prices, it is profitable to invest in more capital-intensive processes (that is, they reduce unit cost of output). So capitalists will replace labor by capital and K/L and K/output ratios will both increase. Since elasticity of substitution between K and L is greater than 1,  r will only slightly decrease while wage will only slightly increase. Although factor prices, being sticky, will not have budged much they would have moved ever slightly further in making capital intensive processes even more attractive. So there would be another round of increased capital investment, and again K/L and K/output will go up with only minimal effects on prices.

 

This will continue round after round until the entire output is produced practically only by using capital and perhaps just an infinitesimal quantity of labor. Both r and w will remain almost as they were at the beginning, but instead of (say) 100 machines and 100 workers, we will, at the end, have 100 robots and 1 worker. Almost all output will belong to the owners of capital. Piketty’s alpha will be close to 1.

 

This is why, in my interpretation, Stiglitz argues that the elasticity of substitution greater than 1 combined with endogenous technical progress leads ultimately to an explosive equilibrium. Now, this interpretation is, to repeat, mine and it is quite possible that Stiglitz might not agree or that I got something wrong.

 

But, after talking with Joe, on the way back to the hotel, I thought of something else. Isn’t this in some ways almost the reverse, and in some ways, very similar, to Marx’s process of increased “organic composition of capital” eventually leading  to the euthanasia of a capitalist (to use Keynes’ term in a Marxist framework)? In Marx, the assumption is that more capital intensive processes are always more productive. So capitalists just tend to pile more and more capital and replace labor (very similarly to what we have seen they do in the Stiglitz example). This in Marxist framework means that there are fewer and fewer workers who obviously produce less (absolute) surplus value and this smaller surplus value over an increased mass of capital means that the rate of profit goes down.

 

The result is identical if we set this Marxist process in a neoclassical framework and assume that the elasticity of substitution is less than 1. Then, simply, r shoots down in every successive round of capital-intensive investments until it practically reaches zero. As Marx writes, every individual capitalist has an interest to invest in more capital-intensive processes in order to undersell other capitalists, but when they all do that, the rate of profits decreases for all. They thus work ultimately to drive themselves “out of business” (more exactly they drive themselves to a zero rate of profit).

 

What are the similarities and differences between the two outcomes? In both cases, labor will be replaced by capital to an extreme degree,  so in both cases, production will be conducted mostly by robots. Employment will be negligible. In Marx, the ultimate equilibrium would be with r at almost zero, and wage (by assumption in Marx) at the subsistence—with of course a huge “reserve army of the unemployed”. In the Stiglitz case, capitalists will end up with an unchanged r and with pocketing the entire net product. In the Stiglitz equilibrium, that sole remaining worker will have a higher wage, but again, no one else would be employed.

 

Net income, in Marxist equilibrium, will be low because only labor produces “new value” and since very few workers will be employed “new value” will be low (regardless of how high capitalists try to drive the rate of surplus value). To visualize Marxist equilibrium, imagine thousands of robots working in a big factory with only one worker checking them out, and with the useful life of robots being one year so that you keep on replacing robots continuously and thus run enormous depreciation and reinvestment costs every year.  The composition of GDP would be very interesting. If total GDP is 100, we could have consumption=5, net investment=5 and depreciation=90. You would live in a country with GDP per capita of $500,000 but $450,000 of that would be depreciation.

 

(To see how this works, imagine having income of $1100 per year and in order to earn it needing to have a laptop which costs $1000 and whose useful life –everybody would agree on that—is one year. So every year you  just use most of your income to replace the laptop and your net disposable income remains small. To make the situation worse, assume that every additional year, as you are competing with other guys with laptops, you need to increase the number of  laptops you own by 5%; your net income will keep on decreasing although you would live in a cornucopia of laptops.)

 

The Stiglitz equilibrium, in some ways, looks very similar: there would the same immense factory halls with thousands of robots but their net marginal product will be high and the entire net product will be appropriated by the capitalists.

 

For labor, in either case, there is almost nothing—simply because practically no one will be employed. Quite a negative utopia either way, one could say. But not quite: in the Stiglitz case, you could tax the capitalists and use that income to keep potential workers happy enjoying lots of leisure, watching TV and playing funny games on their laptops. In the Marxist equilibrium, net income will be low although we would live in a world full of complicated machines. So, there would not be much income to redistribute.  Your pick?

 

 

  On 19. 11. 2015. at 20:00, hazard said:

 

 

Kada kazem nece biti kao u proslosti, ne valja, kada kazem bice kao u proslosti, opet ne valja. Odlucite se :(

 

Pa, ako kazes da nece biti kako je bilo u proslosti, onda se slazem (samo mozda ne i oko samog scenarija.)

Ja samo hocu reci da svi scenariji cista spekulacija, jos vise ako si ti u pravu da se na istoriju ne mozemo osloniti. S tim u vezi, neki na ovom forumu su ubedjeni u jedan scenarijo, ja samo pokusavam da iznesem neke argumente da pokazem da ne mora nuzno biti tako.

Hm, pa nije bas sve cista spekulacija. Sem toga, po nekim pitanjima vec imamo i dubinu vremena dovoljnu da se vidi da nije rec o tlapnji niti pukoj spekulaciji. Jer, ljudi vec jesu displaced automatizacijom, a na njoj se tek zaozbiljno radi od kad su izvesni mladi tehnooptimisti (bas nekako poput tebe :D) uspeli da zarade milijarde sa nepunih 17 godina...

How Uber’s Autonomous Cars Will Destroy 10 Million Jobs and Reshape the Economy by 2025

 

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...Industry experts think that consumers will be slow to purchase autonomous cars – while this may be true, it is a mistake to assume that this will impede the transition. Morgan Stanley’s research shows that cars are driven just 4% of the time,5 which is an astonishing waste considering that the average cost of car ownership is nearly $9,000 per year.6 Next to a house, an automobile is the second most expensive asset that most people will ever buy – it is no surprise that ride sharing services like Uber and car sharing services like Zipcar are quickly gaining popularity as an alternative to car ownership. It is now more economical to use a ride sharing service if you live in a city and drive less than 10,000 miles per year.7 The impact on private car ownership is enormous: a UC-Berkeley study showed that vehicle ownership among car sharing users was cut in half.8 The car purchasers of the future will not be you and me – cars will be purchased and operated by ride sharing and car sharing companies...

 

Edited December 2, 20159 yr by Eraserhead

Mislim da preteruje sa rokom od 5-10 godina, ali generalno - da, verovatno je to to. 

Ovo što opisuje jeste mogući scenario (mada nikako do 2025., to se slažem) ali postoji jedno bar hiljadu začkoljica koje scenario kvare tj. tona stvari mora da se poklopi baš kako treba da bi se to zaista i desilo u nekom razumnom roku (tj. da ne govorimo o situaciji za 100 ili 200 godina nego za 25-50-60).

 

Setimo se Segway-a, priča o tome kako će revolucionizovati lični transport, i onda - cvrc

 

Ovde je problem br. 1 regulacija. Postojeća industrija će se upirati da ovakav razvoj stvari blokira putem regulacija i zakona i propisa i tako dalje. It's not safe! i Think of the jobs! i aj ćao. A i ako im ne uspe, prva velika nesreća sa automatskim vozilima sa više od petoro mrtvih i eto prilike za negativni marketing i širenje straha, lako se može desiti da niko posle toga neće hteti da sedne u auto bez vozača.

 

Dalje, uzima se kao neizbežno da će ovakva vozila ukinuti potrebu za javnim prevozom...što je ako gledamo autorov argument računice (car/ride sharing je jeftiniji od kupovine automobila) netačno. Ako priča o ceni od 50 centi po milji u Njujorku, to je i dalje znatno skuplje od javnog prevoza. U tom istom Njujorku najskuplja karta za metro košta $2,75, i za te pare se voziš koliko hoćeš milja, dok za toliko para pređeš 5,5 milja tim zamišljenim autouberom (5,5 milja za grad poput Njujorka je smešna razdaljina). Neograničena mesečna karta košta $116,50, a ima i raznih sa popustima (valjda za studente, penzionere, šta li već), dakle to sve šije tu računicu sa pola dolara po milji onoliko. Dalje pitanja javnog prevoza nije samo pitanje cene, u centre velikih gradova se ide metroom jer jednostavno ne postoji kapacitet na putevima i ulicama da preveze toliki broj ljudi kolima. Da li je auto s vozačem ili bez vozača nije bitno. Može i da se voze po 5oro u svakom automobilu, ali opet nije to to, jednostavno nije isto kada nabiješ par stotina ljudi u jedan voz a vozovi idu na svaka 2 minuta. I na kraju, i ti automatski automobili će se daviti u gužvi na ulici, a metro će biti brži.

Edited December 2, 20159 yr by hazard

  On 2. 12. 2015. at 21:29, hazard said:

 

 

Ovde je problem br. 1 regulacija. Postojeća industrija će se upirati da ovakav razvoj stvari blokira putem regulacija i zakona i propisa i tako dalje. It's not safe! i Think of the jobs! i aj ćao. A i ako im ne uspe, prva velika nesreća sa automatskim vozilima sa više od petoro mrtvih i eto prilike za negativni marketing i širenje straha, lako se može desiti da niko posle toga neće hteti da sedne u auto bez vozača.

 

 

 

to je 100%. Ma jok, firme kao što su nabrojane će samo da se povuku i kažu: jbg, tržište, tehnologija nas pregazilo. Nema šanse. Naravno, gubiće "ground" kako vreme bude proticalo, ali...

 

e ovo za 

 

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 Dalje pitanja javnog prevoza nije samo pitanje cene, u centre velikih gradova se ide metroom jer jednostavno ne postoji kapacitet na putevima i ulicama da preveze toliki broj ljudi kolima. Da li je auto s vozačem ili bez vozača nije bitno. 

 

on govori o tome da će se broj vlasnika automobila značajno smanjiti i u tom scenariju - infrastruktura jeste dovoljna. ali - taj scenario je pitanje koliko je realan