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Uberizacija = urušena ekonomija, da ili ne?

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Za početak zanimljiv članak o uberizaciji ekonomije, uticaju automatizacije poslovanja i informatike na savremene poslovne procese, benefiti i problemi koje novo doba donosi:

 

 

Uber povukao, nestaje 3,5 mil. radnih mesta

 

Dolazak novih internet kompanija, kao što su Uber, Blablakar ili Airbnb, potresa tradicionalnu ekonomiju i može dovesti do otpuštanja miliona zaposlenih.


Bruno Tebul i Tijeri Pikar u knjizi "Uberizacija = urušena ekonomija", predviđaju da će do 2025. biti ugušeno 3,5 miliona radnih mesta zbog informatizovanja ekonomije, odnosno zbog, kako kažu, uberizacije poslovanja.

"Uberizacija je skorašnji fenomen, čija je direktna inspiracija kaliforinijska tehnološka firma Uber. To je neologizam koji može da se koristi kako bi se opisala startap delatnost kroz numeričku platformu, koja omogućava povezivanje preduzeća i klijenata", objašnjava Tebul, koautor dela "Uberizacija = urušena ekonomija".

U početku, cilj startap preduzeća je bio da se prodrma tradicionalna, uređena regularna ekonomija.

Tako je Uber prodrmao tradicionalno tržište taksista, kao i Blablakar - najveća platforma za deljenje prevoza u Evropi, zatim SNCF francuski servis za prodaju autobuskih, voznih i avionskih karata, ili internet sajt Testamento koji nudi pravne savete notara u Francuskoj, turistička platforma Airbnb za rezervaciju smeštaja...


Bes taksista i loš bilans hotelijerskih grupacija odlično ilustruju nemoć tradicionalne ekonomije da se bori sa novim vidom ekonomije, navodi Tebul.

Preduzeća poput Er Fransa, Danonea ili EDF-a, moraju da podstiču zaposlene da se usavršavaju kako bi što više udovoljili klijentima. Takva preduzeća moraju da uoče u ovom svetu informatike koje to usluge traže njihovi klijenti, i kad ih otkrije - da ih dobro naplati.

Danas snaga jednog preduzeća nije samo u jednostavnom nagomilavanju bogatstva, već u nematerijalizovanom kapitalu (ljudski kapital, socijalni kapital, inovacije, naučna istraživanja).

Na pitanje da

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slow

Nastavak članka:

 

 

Na pitanje da li "uberizacija" ekonomije ugožava tradicionalni način zapošljavanja, francuski publicista odgovara da ona već pogađa sektor uslužnih delatnosti, dok su neke profesije pošteđene, kao što su građevinari, inženjeri, jer je digitalna arhitektura suviše skupa.

Prema previđanju dvojice autora pomenute knjige, do 2025. godine 42 do 47 odsto sadašnjih poslova neće obavljati ljudi - već roboti. Pre svega, biće ugroženi bankari, notari, računovođe.

Najveći gubitnici biće manje kvalifikovana radna snaga, dok će uska elita viskokvalifikovanih u naučnom i tehnološkom sektoru biti najveći dobitnici.

"Uberizacija je odgovor na pružanje usluga u svakom trenutku, na svakom mestu, po najnižoj ceni. Ona je rezultat naše hiperkonekcije i naše hiperpotrošnje", predočava Tebul.

Osim što podiže produktivnost, uberizacija bi, smatra on, mogla u državne kase da slije 30 miljardi evra prihoda godišnje i da podstakne dodatne privatne investicije, ali pod uslovom da vlade preduzmu sve moguće mere da se njihove ekonomije i društva prilagode takvim "potresima".

S tačke gledišta potrošača, ovakva evolucija tržišta rada je progres, ali iz ugla zaposlenih ona predstavlja nazadovanje.

S jedne strane, radnoj snazi nudi se više mogućnosti, ali to sa sobom nosi i više rizika a manje socijalne zaštite.

"Na vladama je da se prilogode novoj ekonomiji kako bi što boje rešile probleme sa kojima ćemo se sve više suočavati, kao što je pitanje otpuštanja radnika zbog automatizacije, ili način plaćanja radne snage koji rade u Uber sistemu", zaključuje Tebul.

 

Kakvo je vaše mišljenje o ovoj temi? Kolike će implikacije imati dalja automatizacija na povećanje nezaposlenosti, ekonomski rast, strukturu privrede, obrazovanje? Kakve će reperkusije biti na celokupno društvo? U kakvom će automatizovanom okruženju čovek živeti i raditi za 10, 20 godina?

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slow

Do 2025/30 godine neće biti potrebni vozači kamiona, time će biti ugroženi milioni radnih mesta...

 

Mercedesov auto-pilot projekat:

 

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mandingo

pozitivne implikacije, u svakom slucaju.

 

poceli smo o ovome vec jednom (na pogresnoj temi, doduse.) tesko se nesto moze tvrditi sa sigurnoscu, ako se pogledaju istorijska iskustva, robotizacija ce doneti progres covecanstvu. pritom, opet po iskustvima iz istorije, skoro je sigurno da ce robotizacija doneti/stvoriti vise poslova - nego sto ce "unistiti".

 

usput, treba podsetiti ortodoxne levicare da su, pre nego sto su poceli da optuzuju slobodno trzizte za over production, tvrdili da ce drustvo u kojima je sistem proizvodnje u rukama drzave, proizvoditi vise, brze i bolje.

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slow

Da, izgleda da se nalazimo pred novom industrijskom revolucijom koja zbrisati poslove koji su repetitativnog karaktera i koji se mogu zameniti automatizovanim procesom. Ne treba žaliti za poslovima koje je pregazilo vreme, tu se slažemo.

Ovde je po meni nešto drugo problem: monopol velikih informatičkih korporacija, demografija i obrazovanje.

Svedoci smo procesa velikog informatičkog ukrupnjavanja u kome su nastale megakorporacije tipa Google, Facebook, Microsoft, itd. One se sve više bave stvarima koje ranije nisu spadale u delokrug uže informatike pre desetak godina, počevši od telekomunikacija, genetike, trgovine, medija, bankaskog sektora, sada se već spominje i proizvodnja električnih automobila, i mnogo toga drugog. U suštini informatičke megakorporacije će početi da jedu ostatak industrije i uslužnih delatnosti jer se ostatak industrije sve više automatizuje. Tako da postaje realan scenario ekstremnih monopola gde će na kraju ostati samo par velikih igrača koji će biti vlasnici svega i koji će kontrolisati sve. Imaćemo sinergiju informatike i finansijskog kapitala i to će biti prvi put da će krupan kapital kontrolisati sve, bukvalno sve. Ovde ostaje malo prostora za čoveka koji bi se bavio sopstvenim biznisom i koji bi bio nezavisan igrač na tržištu. Bojim se da proces ekstremne automatizacije vodi nekakvoj vrsti totalitarnog društva i velike nejednakosti.

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Utvara

Ja ne verujem u to. Ne znam da li sam već kačio Jevgenija Morozova. A tu je i Asanž.

Opet kažem ponavljam™, nijedan Google nije jači od države. Gugletu odjednom magičnim čudom skočio prihod 25%, kako? Uz Google enterprise, lako! Niko nije imun na državnu sisu. Takav razvoj situacije autokratije poput Rusije i Kine ne gledaju blagonaklono, pokušavaju da razvijaju i bogami uspevaju da nametnu svoje alternative Google-u i Fejsbuku (Yandex i VK, Bado i QQ kineski šta već...)

 

Internet odavno nije neki prostor slobode i razmene misli kakvim su ga hipici možda zamišljali, internet se itekako cenzuriše, nadgleda. Infrastruktura se nalazi na zemlji ne u vazduhu ideja.

 

Glavna automatizacija radnih mesta je već izvršena, IMHO, još 80ih u automobilskoj industriji, što je tada imalo smisla i mnogi su u to ulagali. Svo low hanging fruit, voće na niskim granama, već je probrano, sada imamo širenje IT tehnologija u sve ostale pore ekonomije, robotizuje se sve pa šta prođe. Već imamo robotizovane toalete... IT se širi na mala i srednja preduzeća, veliki sistemi imaju IT odavno i to kakav. Prošli smo inicijalne stvar i sada se ta tehnologija širi, pojeftinjava, postaje dostupna širokim narodnim masama. Svako može da ima bazu podataka. Nema tu više hype-a, sve se zna, granice su postavljene, zna se šta koliko košta i koliko vremena treba da se implementira.

 

Naravno, glavna fora nije ono što se uči na fakultetima, nego poslovne tajne velikih firmi, tu je uložena najveća količina vremena, radnih sati i novca.

 

Uglavnom, ko će to znati. Ide basic research koji rade univerziteti, neki R&D odeljenja velikih firmi, države, NASA, američka vojska... Posle ta tehnologija dolazi u široke mase, komercijalizuje se, dolazi do tržišne utakmice, pojeftinjuje itd.

 

Industrijalizacije je potpuno promenila svet na svaki mogući način, i to iz korena. IT i "robotizacija"...

Jebiga, nisu svi Boston Dynamics. Koliko tu treba kapitala, vremena, znanja ulupati da bi se došlo do ovoga, i sve ovo se radi za vojsku, ako se vojsci digne patka ode sve ovo u zaborav.

 

A što se tiče Ubera, to nije ekonomsko nego političko pitanje.

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mandingo

Monopol moze da bude ozbiljan problem samo u slucaju ako je drzavan, u smislu drzavnog vlasnistva ili privatne firme koje je naznacena - od strane drzave.  

 

Googlaj "mises monopoly" da vidis kako je to izgledalo za vreme "robber barona" u USA.  

 

U ovom videu imas dosta toga:    

 

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slow

Monopol moze da bude ozbiljan problem samo u slucaju ako je drzavan, u smislu drzavnog vlasnistva ili privatne firme koje je naznacena - od strane drzave.  

 

Googlaj "mises monopoly" da vidis kako je to izgledalo za vreme "robber barona" u USA. 

 

Poznata mi je ta argumentacija desnog anarhizma (ja to volim tako da nazovem :) ), ima tu jako pametnih i zanimljivih stvari, nisam pristalica preterane državne regulacije, samo mi se čini da on (desni anarhizam) ne vodi računa o psihološkim faktorima i ljudskoj gramzivoj i korumpiranoj prirodi, i da manihejski gleda na ekonomsku zbilju...šta ako država kao neefikasan sistem odumre u ekonomskoj darvinističkoj borbi i neminovno je zameni nešto drugo, da li će se to nešto ograničiti samo na samoregulaciju tržišta ili će posegnuti za novim oblicima represije i neslobode da bi maksimalno povećalo svoju moć? Mislim da ovde nema prave dileme kako će se odigravati stvari, iluzija o bezgrešnom privatnom kapitalu je jako opasna.

Ono što može da izraste na lešu države je sledeća generacija mutiranog predatora u obliku megakorporacija, protiv koga neće biti efikasne odbrane.

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slow

Ja ne verujem u to. Ne znam da li sam već kačio Jevgenija Morozova. A tu je i Asanž.

Opet kažem ponavljam™, nijedan Google nije jači od države. Gugletu odjednom magičnim čudom skočio prihod 25%, kako? Uz Google enterprise, lako! Niko nije imun na državnu sisu. Takav razvoj situacije autokratije poput Rusije i Kine ne gledaju blagonaklono, pokušavaju da razvijaju i bogami uspevaju da nametnu svoje alternative Google-u i Fejsbuku (Yandex i VK, Bado i QQ kineski šta već...)

 

To je sada možda situacija, u nekoj početnoj fazi, ali sve veći broj državnih funkcija i poslova polako se outsourcuje kompanijama. Kina i Rusija jednostavno kaskaju za Zapadom ali verujem da će doći momenat kada će se slične stvari dešavati i tamo za nekih dvadeset/trideset godina. Politika neće imati snage da zaustavi taj proces. Po meni, ključno je pitanje šta će se dešavati posle...

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slow

 

Google Wants to Store Your Genome

For $25 a year, Google will keep a copy of any genome in the cloud.

  • By Antonio Regalado on November 6, 2014
Why It Matters

Genome data on millions of people would lead to new medical discoveries and improved diagnostics.

 

Google is approaching hospitals and universities with a new pitch. Have genomes? Store them with us.

 

The search giant’s first product for the DNA age is Google Genomics, a cloud computing service that it launched last March but went mostly unnoticed amid a barrage of high profile R&D announcements from Google, like one late last month about a far-fetched plan to battle cancer with nanoparticles (see “Can Google Use Nanoparticles to Search for Cancer?”).

Google Genomics could prove more significant than any of these moonshots. Connecting and comparing genomes by the thousands, and soon by the millions, is what’s going to propel medical discoveries for the next decade. The question of who will store the data is already a point of growing competition between Amazon, Google, IBM, and Microsoft.

Google began work on Google Genomics 18 months ago, meeting with scientists and building an interface, or API, that lets them move DNA data into its server farms and do experiments there using the same database technology that indexes the Web and tracks billions of Internet users.

“We saw biologists moving from studying one genome at a time to studying millions,” says David Glazer, the software engineer who led the effort and was previously head of platform engineering for Google+, the social network. “The opportunity is how to apply breakthroughs in data technology to help with this transition.”

Some scientists scoff that genome data remains too complex for Google to help with. But others see a big shift coming. When Atul Butte, a bioinformatics expert at Stanford heard Google present its plans this year, he remarked that he now understood “how travel agents felt when they saw Expedia.”

The explosion of data is happening as labs adopt new, even faster equipment for decoding DNA. For instance, the Broad Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, said that during the month of October it decoded the equivalent of one human genome every 32 minutes. That translated to about 200 terabytes of raw data.

This flow of data is smaller than what is routinely handled by large Internet companies (over two months, Broad will produce the equivalent of what gets uploaded to YouTube in one day) but it exceeds anything biologists have dealt with. That’s now prompting a wide effort to store and access data at central locations, often commercial ones. The National Cancer Institute said last month that it would pay $19 million to move copies of the 2.6 petabyte Cancer Genome Atlas into the cloud. Copies of the data, from several thousand cancer patients, will reside both at Google Genomics and in Amazon’s data centers.

The idea is to create “cancer genome clouds” where scientists can share information and quickly run virtual experiments as easily as a Web search, says Sheila Reynolds, a research scientist at the Institute for Systems Biology in Seattle. “Not everyone has the ability to download a petabyte of data, or has the computing power to work on it,” she says.

Also speeding the move of DNA data to the cloud has been a yearlong price war between Google and Amazon. Google says it now charges about $25 a year to store a genome, and more to do computations on it. Scientific raw data representing a single person’s genome is about 100 gigabytes in size, although a polished version of a person’s genetic code is far smaller, less than a gigabyte. That would cost only $0.25 cents a year.

Cloud storage is giving a boost to startups like Tute Genomics, DNANexus, Seven Bridges, and NextCode Health. These companies build “browsers” that hospitals and scientists can use to explore genetic data. “Google or Amazon is a back end. They are saying, ‘Hey, you can build a genomics company in our cloud,’” says Deniz Kural, CEO of Seven Bridges, which stores genome data on behalf of 1,600 researchers in Amazon’s cloud.

The bigger point, he says, is that medicine will soon rely on a kind of global Internet-of-DNA which doctors will be able to search. “Our bird’s eye view is that if I were to get lung cancer in the future, doctors are going to sequence my genome and my tumor’s genome, and then query them against a database of 50 million other genomes,” he says. “The result will be ‘Hey, here’s the drug that will work best for you.’ ”

At Google, Glazer says he began working on Google Genomics as it became clear that biology was going to move from “artisanal to factory-scale data production.” He started by teaching himself genetics, taking an online class, Introduction to Biology, taught by Broad’s chief, Eric Lander. He also got his genome sequenced and put it on Google’s cloud.

Glazer wouldn’t say how large Google Genomics is or how many customers it has now, but at least 3,500 genomes from public projects are already stored on Google’s servers. He also says there’s no link, as of yet, between Google’s cloud and its more speculative efforts in health care, like the company Google started this year, called Calico, to investigate how to extend human lifespans. “What connects them is just a growing realization that technology can advance the state of the art in life sciences,” says Glazer.

Somalee Datta, a physicist who manages Stanford University’s largest computer cluster for genetics data, says that because of recent price cuts, it now costs about the same to store genomes with Google or Amazon as in her own data center. “Prices are finally becoming reasonable, and we think they will keep dropping,” she says.

Datta says some Stanford scientists have started using a Google database system, BigQuery, that Glazer’s team made compatible with genome data. It was developed to analyze large databases of spam, web documents, or of consumer purchases. But it can also quickly perform the very large experiments comparing thousands, or tens of thousands, of people’s genomes that researchers want to try. “Sometimes they want to do crazy things, and you need scale to do that,” says Datta. “It can handle the scale genetics can bring, so it’s the right technology for a new problem.”

 

 

The Google Self-Driving Car, commonly abbreviated as SDC, is a project by Google X that involves developing technology for autonomous cars, mainly electric cars. The software powering Google's cars is called Google Chauffeur. Lettering on the side of each car identifies it as a "self-driving car". The project was formerly led by Sebastian Thrun, former director of the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and co-inventor of Google Street View.

 

https://www.google.com/selfdrivingcar/

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miki.bg

 ljudskoj gramzivoj i korumpiranoj prirodi

Mnogo postala zajebana ta jedinstvena zapadna ideja o ljudskoj prirodi i njenoj urođenoj pokvarenosti. Od Tukidida, preko Sv. Avgusitna, Hobsa, Hjuma,  autora Federalističkih spisa, savremenih sociobiologa, raznih Raduleta i njima sličnih. Kako kaže jedan američki antropolog Maršhal Sahlins:

„Moj skromni zaključak glasi da je zapadna civilizacija velikim delom izgrađena na pogrešnoj ideji o ’ljudskoj prirodi’... Sasvim je moguće da ta perverzna ideja o ljudskoj prirodi ugrožava naše postojanje.“ 

 

 

 

Što se teme tiče, distopijski end game je Elysium scenario.

Edited by miki.bg

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hazard

 

 

Najveći gubitnici biće manje kvalifikovana radna snaga, dok će uska elita viskokvalifikovanih u naučnom i tehnološkom sektoru biti najveći dobitnici.

 

Na kratak rok.

 

Veca automatizacija, robotizacija, ITizacija...povlaci potrebu za mnogo vise visokoobrazovanih inzenjera, tehnicara, naucnika itd. Sto ih ima vise, to im opada vrednost.

 

Primera radi, nekada (pre 50-60 godina) si sa dipl. ing. titulom bio car. Bio si medju elitom, nalazio posao vrlo lako, imao prakticno garantovano zaposlenje do kraja zivota.

 

Danas da bi bio na slicnom nivou moras da budes dr. ing. Dipl. ing.-ova ima nekoliko redova velicine vise nego nekad, i to je sada postalo ,,normalno", ,,prosecno" zanimanje a ne ,,elitno".

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hazard

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34810552

 

 


Why the 'cute robots' don't work for Rodney Brooks
By Regan MorrisBoston, USA

Rodney Brooks is a roboticist who despises cute, seal pup-eyed "companion robots".

"Robots should work!" he shouts during an otherwise calm interview in the Boston headquarters of Rethink Robotics, the company he founded in 2008. Asking Brooks about cute, "useless" robots makes him wild.

 

As one of the inventors of the Roomba vacuuming robot and the roadside bomb disposing PackBot, Brooks has made robots work for humans perhaps more than any other robotics engineer. Now he's making robots to work alongside humans in factories.

 

"We're trying to change the nature of robots in factories," Mr Brooks says from the Boston headquarters of Rethink Robotics, where engineers tinker with dozens of robots in the open office space.

 

 

Factory focus

Manufacturers the world over complain that no one wants to do the mundane dirty work required in factories, especially the young. The average age of a skilled US factory worker is now 56.

 

In China, once the offshore labour capital of the world, rising costs and a higher standard of living make it increasingly difficult for manufacturers to attract and retain workers.

 

Traditional robots can often take over duties turned down by human workers but Mr Brooks says these machines can take more than 18 months to be installed, often at prohibitive costs. The systems require highly skilled technicians and operators.

 

The key to his latest robots "Baxter" and "Sawyer" is that ordinary people can easily train them, no PhD or engineering degree required. He says the company aims to make Baxter and Sawyer as easy to program as smart phones.

 
 
'Rise of the robots'

 

Rethink Robotics started selling Baxter the robot for just $25,000 in 2012. Baxter was designed to work nimbly alongside humans in factories, able to change tasks and move easily around the factory floor when tasks changed.

 

Sawyer, their other robot costs $29,000 and is now for sale around the world. Recently Rethink Robotics struck a deal with Shanghai Electric which will distribute the machines in China.

 

 

But some people remain nervous about the growing role of robots.

 

Martin Ford, the author of "Rise of the Robots", says robots will change the global economy in drastic ways beyond manufacturing. White collar jobs, are equally susceptible and likely more at risk, he says.

 

"I think it's inevitable that robots will displace a lot of jobs, if you have a PhD in science and engineering, you're probably safe. But that's not many people," Ford says.

 

"We can't stop it. We can't educate ourselves out of it. Top level, highly creative, highly skilled jobs will survive. But most people do average stuff. Even if we tried we couldn't educate every person to be a rocket scientist or brain surgeon."

 

Baby boomers need bots

 

Mr Brooks is less concerned. He thinks fears of robots taking over jobs are overblown and that robots will improve people's lives.

 

"I think there's a misconception amongst the wealthy people in the bubble that there are endless rows of people wanting dull, boring jobs in factories. It's not true," Mr Brooks says, adding that robots will become more pervasive in society as baby boomers age and require more self-driving cars and home healthcare.

 

Mr Brooks became interested in robots as a child growing up in Australia. By age 4, he was known as "the professor" because of his mathematical skills. His mother bought him two books on computers and he was hooked.

"Since I was 7 or 8 I've wanted to build robots or computers. That's been my life," he said.

Out of control?

He was the first in his family to attend university and eventually he earned a PhD in computer science at Stanford University, working in Silicon Valley before it was dubbed "Silicon." Some may recognise Mr Brooks from the 1997 Errol Morris documentary "Fast Cheap & Out of Control," named after one of his research papers.

"Fast, cheap and out of control. There may not be a place for humans in the future if we're really successful," Mr Brooks says to the camera in the documentary, which also portrays a man obsessed with mole rats, a topiary gardener and a retired lion tamer.

When asked if he still believes that, Mr Brooks laughs and says: "You can't expect me to stand by something I said during a long day of filming 20 years ago!"

 

Looking ahead 20 years, Mr Brooks thinks care of the elderly and disaster response will be the biggest advances for robotics in society. He cites the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster in Japan often when discussing robots. After an earthquake damaged the nuclear power plant, PackBots were sent in to sift through debris and send back images to humans working at a safer distance.

"Companion robots weren't any use in Fukushima," Brooks says. "And elderly people don't want companion robots. The elderly want control of their lives. They want dignity and they want independence."

"They don't want cute robots - it's about doing real tasks to make their lives easier."

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Indy

Najveći gubitnici biće manje kvalifikovana radna snaga, dok će uska elita viskokvalifikovanih u naučnom i tehnološkom sektoru biti najveći dobitnici.

 

 
Will Data Scientists be unemployed by 2025? Majority of voters in latest KDnuggets Poll expect expert-level Data Science to be automated in 10 years or less.
 
 

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miki.bg

Istraživanje Britanske vlade The future of work: jobs and skills in 2030

 

This report analyses the future of work - looking at the trends that will shape UK jobs and skills, together with possible disruptions to these trends. It sets out 4 different future scenarios, drawing out implications of changes for 7 sectors. It also identifies the actions employers and individuals can take to prepare for tomorrow’s world of work.


I McKinsey

 

 

The relentless parade of new technologies is unfolding on many fronts. Almost every advance is billed as a breakthrough, and the list of “next big things” grows ever longer. Not every emerging technology will alter the business or social landscape—but some truly do have the potential to disrupt the status quo, alter the way people live and work, and rearrange value pools. It is therefore critical that business and policy leaders understand which technologies will matter to them and prepare accordingly.

 

Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy, a report from the McKinsey Global Institute, cuts through the noise and identifies 12 technologies that could drive truly massive economic transformations and disruptions in the coming years. The report also looks at exactly how these technologies could change our world, as well as their benefits and challenges, and offers guidelines to help leaders from businesses and other institutions respond.

 

We estimate that, together, applications of the 12 technologies discussed in the report could have a potential economic impact between $14 trillion and $33 trillion a year in 2025. This estimate is neither predictive nor comprehensive. It is based on an in-depth analysis of key potential applications and the value they could create in a number of ways, including the consumer surplus that arises from better products, lower prices, a cleaner environment, and better health.

 

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