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Аврам Гојић

Umbrella Revolution - "kinesko proleće"?

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Аврам Гојић

ovo u Hong Kongu je dobilo svoj puni zamah, a zapadni mediji danas su počeli da objavljuju lajv blogove, uz neskrivenu simpatiju prema zahtevima demonstranata.

 

mislim da su ova dešavanja very, very, very big deal sa potencijalno ogromnim implikacijama.

 

 

prenosim, za početak, detaljan tekst Rojtersa.

 

 

REUTERS - Hong Kong democracy protesters defied volleys of tear gas and police baton charges to stand firm in the center of the global financial hub on Monday, one of the biggest political challenges for Beijing since the Tiananmen Square crackdown 25 years ago.

 

China wagged its finger at the student protesters, and warned against any foreign interference as they massed again in business and tourist districts of the city in late afternoon. "Hong Kong is China's Hong Kong," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying defiantly told a news briefing in Beijing.

 

The unrest, the worst in Hong Kong since China resumed its rule over the former British colony in 1997, sent white clouds of gas wafting among some of the world's most valuable office towers and shopping malls before riot police suddenly withdrew around lunchtime on Monday, after three nights of confrontation.

 

China rules Hong Kong under a "one country, two systems" formula that accords the territory limited democracy. Tens of thousands of mostly student protesters are demanding Beijing give them full democracy, with the freedom to nominate election candidates, but China recently announced that it would not go that far.

 

As riot police withdrew on Monday, weary protesters slept beside roads or sheltered from the sun beneath umbrellas, which have become a symbol of what some are calling the "Umbrella Revolution". In addition to protection from the elements, umbrellas have been used as flimsy shields against pepper spray.

 

 

 

 

Nicola Cheung, an 18-year-old student from Baptist University, said the protesters in the central Admiralty district were assessing the situation and planning what to do next.

 

"Yes, it's going to get violent again because the Hong Kong government isn't going to stand for us occupying this area," she said. "We are fighting for our core values of democracy and freedom, and that is not something violence can scare us away from."

 

Organizers have said that as many as 80,000 people have thronged the streets after the protests flared on Friday night. No independent estimate of numbers was available.

 

The protests, with no single identifiable leader, bring together a mass movement of mostly young tech-savvy students who have grown up with freedoms not enjoyed in mainland China. The movement represents one of the biggest threats for Beijing's Communist Party leadership since its bloody 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy student protests in and around Tiananmen Square.

 

Cracking down too hard could shake confidence in market-driven Hong Kong, while not reacting firmly enough could embolden dissidents on the mainland.

 

The protests are expected to escalate on Oct. 1, China’s National Day holiday, with residents of the nearby former Portuguese enclave of Macau planning. Other supporters from across the world are expected to protest in what would serve as an embarrassment to Beijing as it holds celebrations to mark the holiday.

 

Such dissent would never be tolerated on the mainland, where the phrase "Occupy Central" was blocked on Sunday on Weibo, China's version of Twitter. The protests have received little coverage on the mainland, save for government condemnation.

 

Televised scenes of the chaos in Hong Kong over the weekend have already made a deep impression on many viewers outside Hong Kong. That was especially the case in Taiwan, which has full democracy but is considered by China as a renegade province that must one day be reunited with the Communist-run mainland.

 

"Taiwan people are watching this closely," Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou said in an interview with Al Jazeera.

 

The U.S. Consulate General in Hong Kong issued a brief statement calling for all sides to "refrain from actions that would further escalate tensions".

 

China's Hua said Beijing noted statements expressed by countries such as the United States. "We hope that the relevant country will be cautious on this issue and not send the wrong signal," she said.

 

"We are resolutely opposed to any foreign country using any method to interfere in China's internal affairs. We are also resolutely opposed to any country, attempting in any way to support such illegal activities like 'Occupy Central'."

 

"We are fully confident in the long-term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong, because I believe this is in keeping with the interests of all the people in China, the region and the world," she said.

 

In 1989, Beijing's Tiananmen crackdown sent shockwaves through Hong Kong as people saw how far China's rulers would go to keep their grip on power.

 

SOME BANKS PULL DOWN SHUTTERS

 

Banks in Hong Kong, including HSBC, Citigroup, Bank of China, Standard Chartered and DBS, temporarily shut some branches and advised staff to work from home or go to secondary branches.

 

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the city's de facto central bank, said it had activated business continuity plans, as had 17 banks affected by the protests.

 

The HKMA said the city's interbank markets and Currency Board mechanism, which maintains the exchange rate, would function normally on Monday. It said it stood ready to "inject liquidity into the banking system as and when necessary".

 

Hong Kong witnessed extraordinary scenes at the weekend as thousands of protesters, some armed with nothing more than umbrellas, blocked the main road into the city and police responded with pepper spray, tear gas and baton charges.

 

Markets more or less took the weekend's unrest in their stride, proof yet again of the pre-eminent place trade has always taken in Hong Kong. Hong Kong shares ended down 1.9 percent.

 

The protests have spooked tourists, with arrivals from China down sharply ahead of this week's National Day holidays. Hong Kong on Monday canceled the city's popular fireworks display over the harbor meant to mark the holiday. The United States, Australia and Singapore have also issued travel alerts.

 

SCUFFLES BREAK OUT

 

Some protesters erected barricades to block security forces early on Monday, although a relative calm descended after dawn. By mid afternoon, hundreds of protesters were seen streaming again into downtown areas of Hong Kong island. A bus draped with a banner reading "Democracy" was parked haphazardly across a main road.

 

People placed discarded umbrellas over students sleeping in the sun, while others distributed water and masks to guard against tear gas and pepper spray.

 

Only hours earlier, police had baton-charged a crowd blocking a road into the main government district in defiance of official warnings that the demonstrations were illegal.

 

Protesters called on Hong Kong leader Leung Chun-ying to step down. Several scuffles broke out between police in helmets, gas masks and riot gear, and demonstrators angered by the firing of tear gas.

 

"If today I don't stand up, I will hate myself in future," said taxi driver Edward Yeung, 55, as he swore at police. "Even if I get a criminal record it will be a glorious one."

 

Across Hong Kong's famed Victoria Harbour, smaller numbers of protesters, including some secondary school students, also gathered in the Mong Kok district of Kowloon.

 

About 200 workers at Swire Beverage, a unit of Hong Kong conglomerate Swire Pacific and a major bottler for The Coca-Cola Company, went on strike on Monday in support of the protesters, a union representative said. They also demanded the city's leader step down.

 

The "one country, two systems" formula guarantees Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy and freedoms not enjoyed in mainland China, with universal suffrage set as an eventual goal.

 

However, Beijing last month rejected demands for people to freely choose the city's next leader, prompting threats from activists to shut down the Central business district.

 

China wants to limit 2017 elections to a handful of candidates loyal to Beijing. Communist Party leaders worry that calls for democracy could spread to cities on the mainland.

 

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ManicMiner

Onako na prvu loptu - mislim da kineska KP i dalje potpuno sigurno vlada svim mehanizmima sile, te je nerealno ocekivati da se protest iz Hong Konga prelije na ostatak Kine. Ocekujem gusenje honkonskog bunta gvozdenom pesnicom i svim raspolozivim sredstvima.

 

Voleo bih da gresim....

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Аврам Гојић

Onako na prvu loptu - mislim da kineska KP i dalje potpuno sigurno vlada svim mehanizmima sile, te je nerealno ocekivati da se protest iz Hong Konga prelije na ostatak Kine. Ocekujem gusenje honkonskog bunta gvozdenom pesnicom i svim raspolozivim sredstvima.

 

Voleo bih da gresim....

meni je jako teško da zamislim da Peking popusti pod pritiskom mase koja je zatvorila centar grada.

sa druge strane, današnja ekonomija Kine u značajnoj meri zavisi od pozitivnog imidža zemlje, i Tijen Anmen mi se takođe čini malo verovatnim, i do sada su imali prilike u više navrata da razbiju demonstracije, dok nisu ovoliko narasle.

 

Peking sada traži put da spase obraz na način koji neće davati ideje srednjoj klasi u mainlandu, i koji će zaustaviti live blogove anglosaksonskih medija. moguće je da će putem kontrolisane sile i korumpiranja glavnih aktera jednostavno pustiti da se protesti izduvaju, i onda dati neke nevažne ustupke.

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Verterdegete

Ovi ce biti kinesko prolece ko sto su dvoprocentasi bili americko.

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April

Meni je situacija jako zanimljiva. Nema ovo veze sa vremenom Tjenanmena, ovo je slovenački sindrom; posledica društvenih protivrečnosti. 

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Hella

 

ovo će biti kinesko proleće ko što su apstinenti bili srpsko :fantom:

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Budja

meni je jako teško da zamislim da Peking popusti pod pritiskom mase koja je zatvorila centar grada.

sa druge strane, današnja ekonomija Kine u značajnoj meri zavisi od pozitivnog imidža zemlje, i Tijen Anmen mi se takođe čini malo verovatnim, i do sada su imali prilike u više navrata da razbiju demonstracije, dok nisu ovoliko narasle.

 

Peking sada traži put da spase obraz na način koji neće davati ideje srednjoj klasi u mainlandu, i koji će zaustaviti live blogove anglosaksonskih medija. moguće je da će putem kontrolisane sile i korumpiranja glavnih aktera jednostavno pustiti da se protesti izduvaju, i onda dati neke nevažne ustupke.

 

Dokaz gde?

Rusija NIKADA nije imala pozitivan imidz, pa su i nakon Hodorkovskog lepo pristizale strane investicije.

"Slika u svet" u tom smislu je za banana drzave.

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Gandalf

Dokaz gde?

Rusija NIKADA nije imala pozitivan imidz, pa su i nakon Hodorkovskog lepo pristizale strane investicije.

"Slika u svet" u tom smislu je za banana drzave.

+++

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Anduril

Dokaz gde?

Rusija NIKADA nije imala pozitivan imidz, pa su i nakon Hodorkovskog lepo pristizale strane investicije.

"Slika u svet" u tom smislu je za banana drzave.

 

Investicije pristizu skoro iskljucivo u energetski sektor dok se istovremeno odliva ogromna kolicina novca.

Kina je sasvim druga prica - nema toliko prirodnih resursa i eksportuje sirok obim robe globalno a jos uvek zavisi od stranih investicija u mnogim sektorima.

Naravno, da je tu razlika i da Kina mnogo pazljivije neguje svoj imidz nego recimo Rusija. To rade skoro sve izvozno orijentisane ekonomije ako se izuzmu proizvodjaci prirodnih resursa koji su ograniceni i gde nema izbora. Malo sutra bi jedna KSA imala specijalan status i specijalne veze da umesto nafte izvozi robu siroke potrosnje.

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Аврам Гојић

baš na to sam mislio. crackdown nalik onom na Tien Anmenu bi izazvao globalni odijum koji bi se reflektovao i na poslove velikih IT igrača koji proizvode u Kini, kao i na kupovinu kineske robe. ako neće da izgube novac, moraju da nastupaju oprezno.

Edited by Грешни Василије

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Utvara

My 2 cents: kakav crni odijum. Sva kineska kinta nalazi se u honkonškim bankama, i jedni i drugi moraju da igraju fer, našta nisu navikli, inače odoše pare.

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Verterdegete

baš na to sam mislio. crackdown nalik onom na Tien Anmenu bi izazvao globalni odijum koji bi se reflektovao i na poslove velikih IT igrača koji proizvode u Kini, kao i na kupovinu kineske robe. ako neće da izgube novac, moraju da nastupaju oprezno.

 

Uf, mnogo te IT igrace zanima Tien Anmen i ugled Kine u svetu. Dok god im Kinezi budu radili za dva dolara dnevno, jednu push i jednu pish pauzu - oni ce biti tamo.

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Аврам Гојић

Uf, mnogo te IT igrace zanima Tien Anmen i ugled Kine u svetu. Dok god im Kinezi budu radili za dva dolara dnevno, jednu push i jednu pish pauzu - oni ce biti tamo.

ti igrači se igraju na izuzetno konkurentnom tržištu sa malim profitnim marginama, i ne vole fluktuacije izazvane PR problemima. Foxconn je danas humaniji pogon nego ranije, ne zato što su se gazde uljudile već zato što je Epl, pod pritiskom sopstvenih kupaca, naložio temeljnu reviziju uslova rada uz anketiranje više od 30.000 radnika.

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Verterdegete

Dobro eto nek odu. Bas da vidim gde ce naci radnu snagu te brojnosti, koja je spremna da radi i u tim temeljno reviziranim uslovima. Uostalom, pricamo o drzavi koja pravi nosace aviona i vrsi vojne vezbe sa Rusima na Pacifiku. Tesko da par razbijenih studentskih glava moze to da nadmasi kada je u pitanju negativan PR na Zapadu.

 

 

Btw, ne pricamo samo o IT industriji. Sve od igle do lokomotive se danas makar sklapa u Kini.

Edited by Verterdegete

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Utvara

Para vrti gde burgija neće™, pa tako i u diktatorskoj Kini. Ali™ devojci sreću kvari - para voli stabilnost, predvidljivost, nekorumpiran sudski sistem, nezavisne arbitražne institucije.

To sve ima HK a ne Kina. Kina je pogodna zbog više razloga, a ne samo zbog jeftine radne snage, jer postoji jeftinija na Tajlandu i u Burmi. Postoji već određen vertikalni lanac proizvodnje, kooperanata, redovnih isporuka, sistem ulaganja u kinesku proizvodnju (sa finansijskom podrškom iz HK) je prosto uhodan.

 

Sistem "dva sistema jedna Kina" je funkcionisao sve do sada, sada se Hong Kong plaši, ne samo zbog svoje demokratije i institucija nego i zbog sve jačeg negativnog uticaja mainland-a.

Narod je izašao na ulice jer percipira pretnju po svoj način života. Ta mala sloboda, stopostotna iluzija da svako može da se kandiduje, a ne samo kandidati koji su oktroisani od strane države, čini se kao ništavan razlog, ali tu su naravno dublji problemi. Mic po mic, Hong Kong oseća mainland pritisak. Žaba je otkrila da se kuva.

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