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Putin’s Endgame in Syria Has Arrived – Foreign Policy


Syria increasingly seems to be moving toward de facto partition accompanied by ongoing low-level military conflict and a functional, but sluggish politics — a so-called frozen conflict. This may have been the goal all along for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has initiated and managed such conflicts elsewhere, including in Georgia and Ukraine.

Other significant players in Syria, including Israel, the United States, Turkey, and the remaining Sunni Arab rebels, may likewise discover they’d be satisfied with this new reality. The clearest losers, by contrast, would be the Assad regime and Iran.

What are the indications Syria is moving in the direction of frozen conflict? Consider the recent visit by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Russia to meet with Putin. At the press conference following the meeting, Putin told reporters that, “Following the Syrian Army’s notable successes in fighting terrorism, and with the activation of the political process, the foreign forces based in Syria will start to withdraw from the country.” This seemed to hint that the Russian president wasn’t interested in assisting the Assad regime’s reconquest of the entirety of Syria. And absent the Russian air support that the Syrian military has relied on in major combat operations (including the siege of Aleppo and the destruction of rebel-controlled Eastern Ghouta), such reconquest would be impossible.

Some have speculated that Putin was referring only to the withdrawal of foreign forces opposed to the regime. In the past, Moscow has sought to differentiate between its own presence in Syria (at the invitation of the “legitimate” Syrian authorities) and the uninvited presence of other foreign elements. On this occasion, however, Russia’s Syria envoy, Alexander Lavrentiev, clarified that the president was referring to “all foreign military forces stationed in Syria, including American, Turkish, Hezbollah, and Iranian [forces].”

The Russian statement was followed by an angry response from Tehran. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi told reporters in Tehran that, “No one can force Iran to do anything. … As long as terrorism exists and the Syrian government wants, Iran will have presence [in Syria].” The dueling statements are just one indication among many of differences between Moscow and some of its allies about the future of Syria. There’s also Moscow’s acquiescence to recent large-scale Israeli air actions against Iranian targets in Syria, and its apparent granting of permission to the Turks to establish a sizeable enclave in northwest Syria. Assad, meanwhile, has rejected a Russian plan for the drafting of a new Syrian constitution that would limit his powers.

Moscow’s pattern of behavior elsewhere suggests that it is comfortable with the maintenance of unresolved conflicts, at relatively low cost. In Ukraine, for example, the conflict in the Donbass remains far from resolution. But by holding parts of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, Russia ensures that it can disrupt Ukraine’s internal affairs at will, and that its plans and strategy are the most urgent issue facing any Ukrainian government.

In Syria, of course, Russia is backing the government, rather than an insurgency of its own making, as in Ukraine. But Moscow is now making clear that its interests don’t entirely overlap with Assad’s.

This wasn’t immediately apparent when Russian aircraft first appeared over the skies of Syria on Sept. 30, 2015. They were received with a crescendo of triumphant editorials in pro-Iran and pro-Hezbollah regional media. An article in the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar at the time by its editor, Ibrahim al-Amin, heralded the birth of the “4 + 1” alliance, which would include Iran, Iraq, Assad’s Syria, Hezbollah — and Russia. The reality today suggests a more complex picture.

Russia appears largely to have made the points it wished to make in Syria. Its intervention kept the Assad regime from probable defeat in 2015. The regime’s fortunes have since been reversed. It now controls around 60 percent of Syrian territory. The last enclaves of Islamic State control in the vicinity of Damascus were emptied out this week. No danger of rebel victory remains.

Russia has proved the efficacy of its brutal air tactics and weapons systems, and the relative skill and dedication of its revamped army. It has preserved the integrity of its naval bases in Tartus and Latakia, and the Khmeimim air base. It has made its point that Moscow sticks by its allies. And it has killed many North Caucasian jihadis who had made their way to the rebellion.

But Putin evidently has little interest in the job al-Amin, the pro-Hezbollah editor, wanted to offer him: leader of the region’s militant Shiite bloc. Rather, Moscow wishes to make itself the key power broker in the Syrian context, the address through which all must pass in pursuit of their goals. But for this, of course, Russia must be able to grant each party part of what it wants, rather than coming down firmly on any side.

 

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I Ukrajina i Sirija su pre ratova bile države naklonjenije Rusiji nego nekom drugom i u obe su se nalazile ruske baze. Zamrznuti konflikt eventulno može da bude interes kod Donbasa, u Siriji teško. Tamo je trebalo ići na totalnu pacifikaciju, no sad sa puštanjem lokalnih hijena bolji je i bilo kakav održiv mir nego zamrznuti konflikt. Turci i Al Kaida imaju veoma ozbiljno i masovno prisustvo u Idlibu da vreme sigurno radi za njih, nikako za izmučenu SAA.

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7 hours ago, Krošek said:

Rather, Moscow wishes to make itself the key power broker in the Syrian context, the address through which all must pass in pursuit of their goals. But for this, of course, Russia must be able to grant each party part of what it wants, rather than coming down firmly on any side

 

Ovaj, to mu dodje da je Putin neki pozitivac?

 

Mislim, sta je lose u tome da Turska, Iran i Izrael imaju dobre odnose sa Rusijom u smislu BI?

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24 minutes ago, Budja said:

 

Ovaj, to mu dodje da je Putin neki pozitivac?

 

Mislim, sta je lose u tome da Turska, Iran i Izrael imaju dobre odnose sa Rusijom u smislu BI?

uh, kako sta je lose, pa zamisli da se neko negde nesto dogovori bez usa i evro sakala, pa da bude nekakva stabilna situacija a da oni ne mogu da izvlace nikakvu korist. propast, zlo! pazi kako sad miniraju bilo kakav dil u korejama.

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6 hours ago, palikaris said:

uh, kako sta je lose, pa zamisli da se neko negde nesto dogovori bez usa i evro sakala, pa da bude nekakva stabilna situacija a da oni ne mogu da izvlace nikakvu korist. propast, zlo! pazi kako sad miniraju bilo kakav dil u korejama.

 

Uzas sta rade ti zlikovci iz evrope i amerike. Eh da je tu neki jak lider da gvozdenom pesnicom uvede red i stane na put birokratama, masonima i lihvarima... Oh wait.

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14 hours ago, Eraserhead said:

 

Uzas sta rade ti zlikovci iz evrope i amerike. Eh da je tu neki jak lider da gvozdenom pesnicom uvede red i stane na put birokratama, masonima i lihvarima... Oh wait.

D. Tramp? :)

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Report: Syria bans Iran from using its hangars after Israeli strikes


The Syrian air force has forbidden Iranian forces and their allied Shiite militias from using its aircraft hangars and other facilities on its military bases, in light of repeated Israeli attacks, a Syrian news outlet reported on Sunday.

According to Zaman al-Wasl, an investigative news site generally seen as supportive of the Syrian opposition, the head of the Syrian air force, Maj. Gen. Ahmad Balloul, ordered that the country’s air bases be restricted to Syrian troops alone. The decision was made sometime in the past two weeks, though the report did not specify when.

The report came as Russia signaled support for pushing Iran and other militias away from Syria’s border with Israel, saying only Syrian regulars should be stationed there.

 

The Syrian outlet, which is generally considered to be reputable, reported that the decision to restrict the air base usage was “affected by” a meeting between Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month.

The reported decision also followed a number of Israeli airstrikes on Syrian military bases in recent months, which were directed specifically against Iranian forces and proxies.

 

During two of these strikes, Israel destroyed multiple Syrian air defense systems that fired on Israeli jets. Last week, a senior air force official said Israel would continue to target any Syrian anti-aircraft battery that shot at its planes.

Israel has long considered Iranian military entrenchment in Syria to be unacceptable and vowed to prevent it, with military action if necessary, out of concerns that Tehran would use the war-torn country as another base from which to threaten the Jewish state.

A senior Israeli official told reporters on Monday that the once stalwart relationship between Damascus and Tehran appeared to be fraying as the Syrian civil war comes to an end.

Assad needed and still needs Iran to fight the opposition forces, but as victory appears on the horizon, Tehran’s assistance is becoming more of a burden and less of a boon. The Syrian dictator is looking to begin rebuilding the country he helped destroy, while Iran’s focus is on Israel and regional hegemony, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

 

“Assad gets up in the morning and says, ‘Yeah, [the Iranians] saved my ass, but really? I have to live with them to the end of my days,'” the official said.

The Zaman al-Wasl was one of the latest signs that the period of Iran’s relatively unchecked presence in Syria was coming to a close.

On Monday night, Israeli TV reported Jerusalem and Moscow had reached an agreement to distance Iranian forces from the border area in southern Syria, though Israel and Russia released differing messages earlier in the day regarding the extent of their tolerance for Iran’s military presence in that country.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said only the Syrian army should be present on Syria’s border with Israel, suggesting Russia was ready to allow Iran to maintain a foothold in other parts of the country.

However Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took a more stringent view, saying that Israel would not accept any Iranian military presence in Syria.

 

Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman will travel to Moscow on Wednesday to meet with his counterpart Sergei Shoigu, the Defense Ministry said shortly after Netanyahu’s remarks. He will be joined on the trip by the head of Military Intelligence and other senior defense officials.

Under the proposed agreement, Israel would accept the return of Syrian regime soldiers to the border on the Golan Heights and Russia would guarantee there are no Iranian or Hezbollah forces in the area, Hadashot TV news reported.

All non-Syrian forces would also be expected to leave Syria, including American and Turkish forces, according to the TV report.

The agreement was also said to include a clause allowing Israel to conduct strikes against Iranian targets in Syria.

During the meeting between Putin and Assad in the Russian resort city of Sochi on May 17, the Russian president called for foreign militaries to begin leaving Syria in light of the regime’s victories.

 

“We presume that, in connection with the significant victories and success of the Syrian army in the fight against terrorism… with the onset of the political process in its more active phase, foreign armed forces will be withdrawn from the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic,” Putin said, according to CNN.

In a rare show of public disagreement, Iran appeared to reject the remarks made by the Russian president last week.

“No one can force Iran to do anything,”:s_w: Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bahram Qasemi said, according to the Tasnim news website.

“As long as terrorism exists and the Syrian government wants, Iran will have presence [in Syria],” Qasemi said. “Those who have entered Syria without the consent of the Syrian government should leave.”

 

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И по 100 пут народна мудрост: не дај боже да те Руси бране или Грци хране...

Или, како очас посла продатитм савезника :fantom:

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