Econ&Fin What's Up

[Ravanelli]

zar nije bila priča da se radilo samo za success fee i da se zbog propalosti prošlog tendera samo lazard javio?

[Eraserhead]

BELGRADE (Serbia), August 19 (SeeNews) - The timing of the Serbian government's decision to pursue the sale of a stake in incumbent telco Telekom Srbija might be good, considering the current environment of high equity valuations and low interest rates, a Belgrade-based analyst said.

 

A call for non-binding bids for state equity in Telekom Srbija, which employs over 9,000 people in Serbia, was issued last month. A total of eight offers were received before the bidding deadline expired on August 2. The next phase of the process is shortlisting the bidders that will advance to the next stage of the process.

 

Last week, Serbian telecommunications minister Rasim Ljajic said he hopes that the binding bids will be unsealed in November and that the sale of the telco will be completed by the end of the year.

 

“Based on a quick and rough analysis of Telekom Srbija's 2014 figures and forecasts for the next couple of years, supported by current valuation multiples of the telecoms in Southeast Europe and valuations of the big transactions in the last couple of years, the implied enterprise value [EV] for the company should fall in the range of 5.2 to 5.8 times estimated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation [EBITDA] for 2015,” the head of research at Novi Sad-based Erste Bank, Mladen Dodig, told SeeNews in an email.

 

“For example, consolidated EBITDA in 2014 stood at around 400 million euro [$441.6 million], so if we take the average of the proposed EV/EBITDA range, the implied EV with 2014 figures would be around 2.2 billion euro. After subtracting the net debt in 2014, we arrive at a figure of around 1.88 billion euro of implied market capitalization.”

 

Telekom Srbija's EBITDA rose by 5.7% to 16 billion dinars ($147.2 million/133.3 million euro) in the first half of 2015 while operating revenues came in at 47.4 billion dinars.

 

Commenting on remarks by Serbian prime minister Aleksandar Vucic carried by media that the government in Belgrade will shelve the sell-off if the offered price is below 1.1 billion euro, Dodig said that this could be seen as a move to set a minimum price for the stake.

 

“At the moment we don’t know how big would be the stake in Telekom Srbija which will be offered for sale, even whether the government will decide to sell a majority or a minority stake.”

 

In 2011, an attempt to sell a stake in Telekom Srbija failed after the government rejected an offer it had received from Telekom Austria, saying it was too low.

 

Last week, information released by former Serbian economy minister Sasa Radulovic and based on a document of the Privatisation Agency indicated that the country's sell-off authority received requests for the delivery of documents for the first phase of the sale procedure from Deutsche Telekom, the EBRD, Telekom Slovenije, Advent International, Apollo Global Management, Mid Europa Partners, CVC Capital Partners, Novator Partners, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Turkcell, BC Partners, Colbeck Capital Management, Bulgaria's Vivacom and Mobile TeleSystems.

 

Dodig expects that the majority of the parties that declared their interest will place binding offers.

 

The sell-off plans for Telekom Srbija are part of a larger push by the Serbian government to find private partners for viable state enterprises while seeking to wind down loss-making and unsustainable businesses.

 

Telekom Srbija's biggest shareholder at the end of last year was the Serbian government with a 58.11% stake. Small shareholders control a combined 14.95% while company employees own 6.94%. The remaining equity is held by the company itself.

 

In 2012, Greece's  OTE sold back to the Serbian government a 20% stake in Telekom Srbija it had acquired in the 1990s.

 

The Serbian company, which posted a 13.4% rise in consolidated net profit to 17.8 billion dinars in 2014, is the majority owner of the second-largest telecommunication company in Bosnia, Telekom Srpske, while also controlling Montenegrin mobile operator M:Tel.

 

(1 euro=120.0216 Serbian dinars)

 

 

http://wire.seenews.com/news/equity-valuations-interest-rates-good-backdrop-for-telekom-srbija-sell-off-analyst-489105#

[Eraserhead]

Bacio pogled na transakcije u telekomunikacijama u poslednjih godinu dana i na to kako se trguje akcijama slicnih kompanija i mislim da ce 5-5.5x biti maksimum osim ako ne postoji nesto sto ne znamo. Znaci EV od 2,000-2,200... znaci sa njihovim dugovima markcap od 1,680-1,880. Tesko da ce da dobiju ono sto Vucic izjavljuje.

[Ravanelli]

Stajaznam

 

1. nisu oni klasika telco pa da je tofalno comparable. Imaju i fiksnu i adsl i iptv i infrastrukturu

2. arpu im je dojaja nizak. dobili su dno trzista. ulaganje u povecanje churn rate bi se sigurno isplatilo i postoje trzisni uslovi za to, a imaju veliki broj korisnika za dobre akcije

 

Bilo bi itetesantno videti model i ocekivanja

Edited August 19, 2015 by Ravanelli

[Budja]

Bacio pogled na transakcije u telekomunikacijama u poslednjih godinu dana i na to kako se trguje akcijama slicnih kompanija i mislim da ce 5-5.5x biti maksimum osim ako ne postoji nesto sto ne znamo. Znaci EV od 2,000-2,200... znaci sa njihovim dugovima markcap od 1,680-1,880. Tesko da ce da dobiju ono sto Vucic izjavljuje.

 

Zasto su EV/EBITDA za telekomunikacije toliko niske?

 

Implicitno, takav EV/EBITDA implicira negativne stope rasta.

Zar je industrija toliko omatorela?

[Ravanelli]

[emoji38]

Da li si od mba napisao neki post oko ekonomije koji nije kurcenje ili preslisavanje lekcije?

[Prospero]

Odličan dan na berzi danas

 

via TT

[Ravanelli]

Oko telekoma

 

 

[hazard]

Drugim rečima Telekom je trebalo prodati 2009.

[Ravanelli]

dunav je isto odličan primer nečega što je trebalo zaviliti pre. ranije su ga razmatrale ozbiljne evropske firme, sada ga nude ostalim osiguravačima na tržištu za 1 dinar. ni ova odšteta od €11mil telekomu za skladište u makišu nije pomogla. godinama imaju slične gubitke na poljoprivredi. moraju da osiguravaju propala državna preduzeća čija je premija samo fiktivna... ali zato uvek mogu da dignu premiju na autoosiguranje (potpuno bespotrebno, jer 35% premije odlazi tehničkim pregledima i agencijama) i time ga održe iznad vode... na naš račun naravno.

 

 

+++

 

 

http://www.blic.rs/Vesti/Ekonomija/539757/Dunav-osiguranje--lider-u-nezivotnom-osiguranju

 

ono što je interesantno je da ovakve tekstove možeš da objavljuješ u blicu samo ako si u "zlatnom sponzorskom pulu" blica u koji se ulazi za €40k mesečno.

 

pogledajte koje još firme imaju reklame i ovakve tekstove u blicu. blic ( i ostali dnevni časopisi koji imaju slične programe) ne objavljuju negativne tekstove o njima, čak i u slučajevima ozbiljnih mobinga, samoubistva radnika, negativnih rezultata, najbezobraznijih poslovnih gafova zbog kojih je bilo dosta problema, masovnog zagađenja prirode.... nejmit

Edited August 26, 2015 by Ravanelli

[hazard]

Oduvek sam znao da je tako

 

http://www.cbc.ca/dragonsden/blog/work-before-10-is-torture-study

 

 

Work Before 10 a.m. is Torture: STUDY

 

Does it feel like torture to have to get to work by 9 a.m.? You’re not alone — you never were, friend! — but now there’s research to back you up.

An Oxford University researcher claims that punch-in times before 10 a.m. are ‘torture’ and a ‘serious threat’ to your physical and mental health.

Dr. Paul Kelley’s study says that before age 55, our bodies are attuned to sunlight and circadian rhythms, and we can’t be trained by routine.

He recommends a start time for high school students of 10 a.m. and university students of 11 a.m. Any earlier, he says, and grades and productivity will suffer.

At a school where Dr. Kelley was headmaster, he shifted the start time to 10 a.m. and found that the top grades at the school rose by 19 per cent.

In an attempt to replicate that success, students in 100 secondary schools across England will take part in a four-year project that will see their start time move to 10 a.m. We’ll see the results of that study in 2018.

In the meantime, get some sleep! We don’t need a study to remind us that sleep deprivation takes its toll. Remember, Einstein slept 10 hours/night and napped, too!

What sort of work hours are optimal for you?

[Ravanelli]

long read o liku koji je nameštao libor. odličan članak

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-14/was-tom-hayes-running-the-biggest-financial-conspiracy-in-history-

[Lezilebovich]

Šta je sa mozgovima ovih iz VW ? Ako sam dobro ispratio, oni su postavili softver koji prepoznaje da se radi o testiranju i menja podatke, tj lažira rezultat. To funkcioniše duži niz godina. Istraživači sa jednog univerziteta su to pravili prošle godine i rekli ljudima iz VW-a da su ih provalili. VW to kompletno ignoriše i onda pre par dana izbija skandal.

[precog]

To je vjerojatno ko ivicino koferce, poteze se po potrebi zbogradi ucene, ali ce kad tad svinjce da najebe.

Edited September 27, 2015 by precog

[Tresko]

Šta je sa mozgovima ovih iz VW ? Ako sam dobro ispratio, oni su postavili softver koji prepoznaje da se radi o testiranju i menja podatke, tj lažira rezultat. To funkcioniše duži niz godina. Istraživači sa jednog univerziteta su to pravili prošle godine i rekli ljudima iz VW-a da su ih provalili. VW to kompletno ignoriše i onda pre par dana izbija skandal.

Pošto se to testiranje na štetne emisije obavlja na valjcima, oni koji vrše testiranje moraju da uključe na kompjuteru automobila tzv. "test mode", koji privremeno isključuje sisteme kao ABS, ASR, ATC i ostalo jer bi bio haos, kada bi kompjuter registrovao da se vrte samo prednji točkovi. E, tu su napravili "malu modifikaciju", pa kad se uključi test mode, rezultati izduvnih gasova bivaju prikazani na prikladni način.